Saturday, March 8, 2014

Just The Facts: The no. 8/no. 9 seed vs. the no. 1 seed in the conference quarterfinals

I'm back today, ahead of this franchise's reboot (GOOGLE IT LITOS).


Hey! Two Just The Facts this season! Everything’s coming up Milhouse!

With their 78-70 win over UNC Wilmington last night, the eighth-seeded Flying Dutchmen advanced to a CAA Tournament quarterfinal match this afternoon against top-seeded Delaware—and sent me scurrying to the record books to find out how the top seed fared in quarterfinal conference tournament games against the eighth or ninth seed,

Perhaps I should have resisted the urge.

Today marks the 28th time the CAA’s no. 8 or no. 9 seed will face the no. 1 seed in the quarterfinals (there were less than eight seeds in 1983, 1984, 2001 and 2013). The no. 8 or no. 9 seed is a gulp-inducing 1-26 against the no. 1 seed with an average margin of defeat of 15.5 points per game.

The only no. 8 or no. 9 seed to pull the upset was Navy, which, as the eighth seed in 1991, stunned James Madison 85-82 in overtime. Not saying that was a long time ago, but I was a senior in high school in 1991 and Navy is now in the Patriot League.

Only three other no. 8 or no. 9 seeds have lost by less than 10 points (no. 9 Georgia State to VCU in 2009, no. 9 Towson to VCU in 2004 and no. 9 VCU to UNC Wilmington in 1998). The closest loss in that bunch: VCU’s 69-63 loss.

The news gets no better when examining the fate of the no. 8 or no. 9 seed against the top seed way back when the Dutchmen were in the America East/NAC or the ECC. In fact, the no. 8 or no. 9 seed is 0-25 with an average margin of defeat of 16.8 ppg when it faces the top seed in a conference tournament in which Hofstra participated. Only three of those losses were by less than 10 points (Towson lost to top-seeded Bucknell, 79-77, in overtime in the 1985 ECC Tournament).

As for Hofstra, this will be the fourth time an eighth- or ninth-seeded Dutchmen squad faces the top seed in the quarterfinals. The total margin of defeat in the first three games: Eighty-three points including two losses by at least 30 points, including the 108-75 loss to Malik Rose and Drexel that I saw at the DAC in March 1995. Gulp.

I should shut up before I end up removing all the enjoyment from today’s festivities. Without further ado: The raw data of the no. 1 seed vs. the no. 8 or no. 9 seed in the CAA, followed by the results of 1-8/9 games when Hofstra was in the America East/NAC and ECC. (Note: The ECC records only go back to 1983-84, the first season of the single division format. The previous two-division format made figuring out postseason seedings nearly impossible)

CAA
2013: n/a
2012: Drexel 59, no. 9 UNCW 47
2011: GMU 68, no. 9 GSU 45
2010: ODU 86, no. 8 Towson 56
2009: VCU 61, no. 8 GSU 52
2008: VCU 57, no. 9 Towson 46
2007: VCU 73, no. 9 GSU 60
2006: UNCW 69, no. 9 UDee 56
2005: ODU 64, no. 9 W&M 51
2004: VCU 67, no. 9 Towson 60
2003: UNCW 76, no. 9 Hofstra 56
2002: UNCW 78, no. 8 JMU 62
2001: n/a
2000: GMU 75, no. 8 American 58
1999: GMU 73, no. 9 American 48
1998: UNCW 69, no. 9 VCU 63
1997: ODU 69, no. 8 Richmond 56
1996: VCU 89, no. 9 Richmond 55
1995: ODU 110, no. 8 GMU 94
1994: ODU 83, no. 8 W&M 58
1993: JMU 60, no. 8 GMU 49
1992: Richmond 74, no. 8 GMU 59
1991: No. 8 Navy 85, JMU 82
1990: JMU 93, no. 8 W&M 83
1989: Richmond 96, no. 8 Navy 86
1988: Richmond 67, no. 8 ECU 41
1987: Navy 63, no. 8 W&M 52
1986: Navy 81, no. 8 JMU 67
1985: Navy 94, no. 8 ECU 73
1984: n/a
1983: n/a

AMERICA EAST/NAC
2001: Hofstra 68, no. 8 Vermont 55
2000: Hofstra 80, no. 8 Boston U. 62
1999: Delaware 83, no. 9 Towson 63
1998: Delaware 80, no. 8 Towson 60
1997: Boston U. 67, no. 9 Maine 49
1996: Drexel 83, no. 9 Hartford 71
1995: Drexel 108, no. 9 Hofstra 75

ECC
1994: n/a
1992: n/a
1991: n/a
1990: Towson 74, no. 8 Rider 63
1989: Bucknell 106, no. 8 Rider 80
1988: Lafayette 84, no. 8 Hofstra 54
1987: Bucknell 81, no. 8 Delaware 71
1986: Drexel 99, no. 8 Delaware 81
1985: Bucknell 79, no. 8 Towson 77 (OT)
1984: Bucknell 64, no. 8 Towson 42

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

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