Showing posts with label CAA running tally. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CAA running tally. Show all posts

Thursday, November 11, 2010

CAA Running Tally II

If a video game system is produced but nobody buys it, does it actually exist? (PS: Google it, D.C.!)

Hey! The sequel to Running Tally took just 10 days! So you can apparently count on Running Tally III—in which I get my ass kicked by Mr. T, or in which Sofia Coppola makes a horribly panned appearance, or in which a franchise that once stood for raunchy R-rated fun is turned into a TV movie—appearing on a computer screen near you next Friday!

Anyway, this Running Tally tabulates the pre-season magazines, most of which are terribly dated by the time they land on the newsstand and some of which, quite frankly, seemed like they were put together with no effort whatsoever (as noted in the first Running Tally, the one CAA magazine preview that was certainly worked on with equal parts passion and diligence was the Blue Ribbon Yearbook, authored by your good friend and mine Litos).

Lindy’s, for example, counts both Chaz Williams and Halil Kanacevic as returnees for Hofstra, which means either the deadline was Feb. 15 or the writer just didn’t care. I’m not sure which would be more disturbing. (Actually the most disturbing thing is that the guy still only picked Hofstra, with all those guys back, sixth)

Such inaccuracies are not limited to previews printed on dead trees (I found an online preview this week that was so riddled with factual errors I thought it had been assassinated at the Jones Beach tollbooths) but it makes me reconsider whether or not to even count the magazines in these Running Tallies. I decided to do it for another year, mostly because the sight of pre-season magazines on the newsstand still give me a little jolt that reminds me of childhood, when these things were gold.

Enough blathering out of me. Here is a link to the first Running Tally and below are the updated standings. If you come across any more previews, please send them along so I can include them in the next Running Tally. (As always, my point system mimics the cross country point system—one point for first place, two points for second place, all the way to 12 points for last place.)

1.) Old Dominion (8) 20
2.) VCU (4) 24.5
3.) George Mason (1) 33.5
4.) James Madison 59
5.) HOFSTRA 72
6.) William & Mary 87.5
7.) Northeastern 91.5
8.) Drexel 99
9.) Delaware 107
10.) Towson 121
11.) UNC Wilmington 144
12.) Georgia State 151

First place votes in parentheses.

Polls collected thus far: CAA, Brian Mull, Mark Selig, CAA Hoops “Brain Trust,” Rivals.com, Rush The Court, CAA Full Court Press, Blue Ribbon, Athlon, Sporting News, Slam, Lindy’s.

—Even people with old-fashioned deadlines hate our beloved Flying Dutchmen, who remain fifth overall after they were picked as high as fifth by Blue Ribbon (Litos knows not to anger me) and as low as seventh by Sporting News. Everyone else—those who seemed to be paying attention and those who weren’t alike—picked Hofstra sixth, which has me once again singing Motley Crue!

—ODU collected three first-place votes (Blue Ribbon, Athlon’s and Slam) to remain the overwhelming favorite to repeat as champion. The Monarchs have not been picked lower than third in any of the 13 polls.

—VCU picked up two first-place votes (Sporting News and Lindy’s) to widen its lead over George Mason. Like ODU, VCU has not been picked lower than third by anyone.

—Our good friends at Mason received a second (Athlon’s), three thirds and a fourth, which unfortunately was from Lindy’s. That marked the first time the Patriots have been picked outside the top three.

—James Madison easily hangs on to fourth despite a pair of inexplicable eighth-place votes from Sporting News and Slam. Seriously, are these writers even trying? I’m not entirely convinced the Dukes will finish in the top four—almost but not quite—but barring widespread injury they won’t finish eighth. Anyway, a second-place vote from Lindy’s helped negate the two eighths.

—William & Mary was picked eighth by three magazines but picked up a fourth (Sporting News) and a fifth (Slam) to hang on to sixth place overall.

—It would be easier to list the spots in which Northeastern HASN’T been picked. Our Boston Bias friends were picked in five different spots by the five magazines—fourth, fifth, seventh, ninth and 10th—which is appropriate since the Huskies have been picked to finish in seven different spots overall (sixth and eighth are the other ones). Alanis Morrissette should write a song about the irony of a team coached by straight-laced Bill Coen being picked to finish all over the place.

—The long lead time for magazines might be the best thing to happen this season to Drexel, which looked like a championship contender before point guard Jamie Harris was arrested for armed robbery. The Dragons moved from ninth to eighth thanks to two fifths (Athlon’s and Lindy’s), a sixth, a seventh and a 10th (notably, Blue Ribbon). The Dragons were picked seventh or higher just three times by the eight sources that had the benefit of casting votes after July.

—Delaware gives Northeastern a run for its money by being picked sixth (Blue Ribbon), seventh and 12th once apiece and 10th twice, but the spate of double-digit picks drop the Blue Hens to ninth. It’s probably a good sign, though, for our friends in Newark that they were picked 10th or lower just once by the online forecasters. The Blue Hens also have the biggest gap between highest and lowest forecast (seven spots).

—Towson is 10th overall despite having almost twice as many ninth-place votes (seven) as 10th-place votes (four). The magazines are in almost unanimous agreement about the Tigers as only Blue Ribbon (seventh) picked them higher than ninth. Every other magazine else except Slam (10th) selected Towson ninth.

—UNC-Wilmington hangs on to 11th after getting its highest vote yet, a ninth from Slam. The Seahawks got three 11ths and a 12th (Athlon’s) as well.

—Georgia State remains in the basement after three 12th-place votes and two 11th-place votes. The Panthers have been picked in the bottom two in every poll.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

Monday, November 1, 2010

The Running Tally is here! Oh my God! Only 12 days late! How excited are you?

Lay off me! I had to input all the CAA predictions into my super-old, super-slow Macintosh!

No need to riot, folks, and please stop ringing my doorbell. (Oh wait, those were kids Trick or Treating? Sorry ‘bout that). The first installment of the Running Tally of CAA predictions is finally here.

Apologies again for the delay, and a quick refresher for readers both old and new: Every fall we compile the various previews of the CAA and put together the consensus. My point system mimics the cross country point system—one point for first place, two points for second place, all the way to 12 points for last place (which is where I often finished as a cross country runner—last place, not 12th place—but I digress).

We compile everything, even the unfortunately dated preview magazines whose writers—with the exception of Our Man Litos, who forecasts the CAA for the exception to the preview magazine rule, The Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook—may or may not think the CAA stands for Creative Artists Agency. There are no magazines included in this Running Tally, because I couldn’t get my hands on all of them this weekend. They’ll be included in the next Running Tally, which will appear at some point between tomorrow and 2025.

And sometime between now and 2025 is when I’ll put together a blog detailing how accurate the consensus was the previous two seasons, but I will say it nailed the champion the last two years (VCU in 2008-09 and ODU last year) but missed Hofstra’s eventual landing spot by two spots both years. The Dutchmen were picked seventh in 2008-09, when they finished fifth, and fifth last year, when they finished seventh. So I guess that means they’ll finish where the predictions say they’ll finish this year. Or not.

We have eight previews compiled by seven different sources here (the CAA Full Court Press guys each filed their own predictions). If I’ve missed any, please send me the link via email or Twitter so I can add it to the group. We’ve gone from 10 polls to 13 the last two years and it’d be great if we could exceed that total this season.

Anyway, no more buildup here you go.

1.) Old Dominion (5) 12
2.) VCU (2) 15.5
3.) George Mason (1) 18.5
4.) James Madison 33
5.) HOFSTRA 42
6.) William & Mary 54.5
7.) Northeastern 56.5
8.) Delaware 62
9.) Drexel 66
10.) Towson 77
11.) UNC Wilmington 90
12.) Georgia State 93

First place votes in parentheses.


—The damn southern bias media continues to pay little heed to our beloved Flying Dutchmen, who weren’t picked higher than fourth by anyone. BLASPHEMY!!! The Dutchmen were a consensus pick to finish fifth, earning five fifth-place votes (CAA, Mull, Selig, the Brain Trust—whomever they are, they’re idiots!!!—and Andy Towne of CAA FCP). The only poll to believe in the Dutchmen, even a little bit, is Rush The Court, which picked Hofstra fourth. Darren Costa of CAA FCP and Rivals.com were particularly mean, picking the Dutchmen sixth and seventh. We won’t forget these slights!!!

—Good news for Old Dominion, which is thus far a decisive pick to repeat as champions. The Monarchs were picked first or second in seven polls, with only Towne picking them as low as third.

—Despite the loss of Larry Sanders—or maybe because of it—VCU was picked second. The Rams were picked second or higher six times, with Mull and Costa pegging them for first. Only the CAA poll and Rivals had the Rams as low as third.

—Like ODU and VCU, our pals at George Mason were a unanimous pick to finish no lower than third (nobody polled me, clearly). Towne gave the Patriots their lone first place vote (note to self: unfollow Towne!) while the CAA, Brain Trust and Rivals picked them to at least share second place. The other four polls had Mason third.

—James Madison was the most consistent pick: Seven of eight dentists, err, pollsters picked the Dukes fourth, with only Rush The Court (fifth) deviating.

—It gets interesting and unpredictable in the middle of the pack, which is led by William & Mary. The Fighting Bill Lawrences were picked between sixth and eighth in every ranking. They were selected to at least grab a share of sixth place four times and selected seventh and eighth twice apiece.

—Our friends at Northeastern ended up one of two teams with a five-spot gap between highest and lowest forecast. The Huskies were picked fifth by Rivals and 10th by Selig. The most popular pick for the Huskies, not surprisingly, was seventh (four votes), but they were also predicted to finish at least tied for sixth twice and eighth once. They were the only team to be picked in five different spots.

—Long-time rival Delaware was the other squad with a five-spot spread—also fifth (Costa) to 10th (Rivals). The Blue Hens received four eighth-place votes and were picked ninth once.

—Drexel was a popular spring pick to contend for the title, but the arrest of starting point guard Jamie Harris sent the Dragons spiraling to ninth in the Running Tally. Of course, Bruiser Flint fares best when nobody believes in him or his team, so it’s not too shocking to see the Dragons picked sixth by the CAA and Rivals. The consensus pick, though, is ninth (three votes). Drexel was also picked 10th twice and seventh once.

—Towson at 10th makes it three straight ECC teams and four straight NAC teams in the bottom half. The Tigers got more ninth-place votes (four) than 10th-place votes (three) but the consistency of the forecast sends them behind Drexel. Towson was also picked 11th by one voter.

—UNC Wilmington and new coach Buzz Peterson were an almost unanimous pick to finish in the bottom two, with only Towne picking the Seahawks as high as 10th. UNCW received four 11th-place votes and three 12th-place votes.

—Georgia State is the inverted James Madison, picked to finish in only two spots—12th and last (five votes) and 11th (three votes).

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

CAA Predictions: Running Tally III

CAA prognosticators obviously remembered Five Guys' advertisements at Hofstra games when evaluating this year's Flying Dutchmen.

A bit later than I’d planned, but here it is (boy, have my family and friends heard THOSE 10 words before): The third Running Tally of CAA predictions. We’re up to 13 polls now, three more than last year, and always eager to see more as we approach Friday (it’s almost here, it’s almost here, it’s almost here!). So if you come across a poll that isn’t included here, send it to me via email or Twitter so I can update the rankings.

These rankings include four new polls—CBSSports.com, Blogging The Bracket, The Sports Xchange and The Sports Network—and it’s interesting to see how these predictions shake out since three of them are based on the most current information. (The Sports Xchange poll was included in the USA Today Sports Weekly college hoops issue)

Without further ado:

1.) Old Dominion (10) 18

2.) VCU (3) 32

3.) Northeastern 41

4.) George Mason 47

5.) HOFSTRA 68

6.) James Madison 76

7.) Drexel 104

8.) Georgia State 105

9.) Delaware 124

10.) UNC Wilmington 128

11.) Towson 133

12.) William & Mary 138

First place votes in parenthesis

Polls collected thus far: CAA, Blue Ribbon, Sporting News, Lindy’s, Athlon, Brian Mull, Rivals.com, Bleacher Report, Rush The Court, CBSSports.com, The Sports Network, Blogging The Bracket, The Sports Xchange

—It took lots of bellowing on my part, but the closer we get to the season, the more seriously the damn liberal media seems to be taking the Flying Dutchmen. Hofstra was picked fifth or higher in all four of the new polls (three fifths and a fourth from The Sports Network)—one more top five placing than in the first nine polls combined. Pretty neat: The Dutchmen are picked fourth, fifth or sixth in every poll (six sixths, four fifths and three fourths), making them one of only two teams, along with Old Dominion, picked entirely within a three-spot range. The Dutchmen are also one of just four teams projected to finish in the top six in every ranking (along with ODU, VCU and Mason). Lastly, their six sixth-place predictions make the Dutchmen one of just two schools picked in the same spot in six polls (Northeastern and second).

—Old Dominion remains the overwhelming preseason favorite, but apparently, publications and websites that now or formerly held the TSN moniker don’t like Old Dominion. The Monarchs received three firsts and a third (from The Sports Network) in the latest polls. The third was the first time the Monarchs had been picked that low since Sporting News. ODU is the only school picked in the top three in all 13 polls.

—VCU, on the strength of four top three votes (including a first from The Sports Network and a pair of seconds from CBS and BTB), jumps past Northeastern and back into second place overall. VCU was second after our first running tally. The Rams have been picked in the top four in every poll and in the top three in all but two (Blue Ribbon and Rush The Court). Third place remains their most popular selection (five votes).

—People seem to be growing a bit uncertain about Northeastern, which has six second-place votes and was picked in the top three in eight of the first nine polls but was ranked as high as third by just one of our four new ones (CBS) as it returns to third. The Huskies were ranked fourth by BTB and TSX and seventh by The Sports Network. Before this, the Huskies were picked fourth or higher by everyone except Sporting News. Hmm. There’s that TSN bias again.

—Conversely, momentum seems to be building for George Mason, which is as solidly entrenched in fourth as Hofstra is in fifth. The Patriots were ranked in the top four in all four additions—two seconds (The Sports Network and TSX), a third and a fourth—after being picked in the top four in six of the first nine polls. The Patriots have also been picked in the top six in every poll.

—James Madison earns this Tally’s Motley Crue video by recording three sixths and a seventh (CBS). The Dukes have slowly slipped behind the Dutchmen, with whom they were tied in the first Tally and a mere two points behind in the second. That said, JMU almost joined Hofstra and ODU as the most consistent team in these polls: The Dukes have been picked four times apiece in fifth, sixth and seventh. The lone outlier was a fourth-place vote from Lindy’s.

—The other spot swapping in the poll occurs at seventh and eighth, where Drexel edges past wildly unpredictable Georgia State by a point to regain the seventh slot. Drexel, which is annually the least predictable team in the CAA, is one of just three schools picked in a different spot in each of the four new polls. A fifth from The Sports Network is enough to offset an eighth, ninth and 10th. That fifth-place vote is the highest Drexel has received. The Dragons have been picked seventh four times.

—It doesn’t matter if the publication is of the dead tree or online variety, nor whether the rankings were compiled two months or two days ago. Georgia State remains all over the place. Like Drexel, the Panthers were picked in four different spots—from sixth (CBS) to 12th (The Sports Network) with a seventh and a ninth thrown in there as well. Georgia State is one of three schools to collect at least two votes in five different spots, but nobody has the wacky range of the Panthers, who have been picked twice apiece in sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth—and three times in 12th. The bottom six teams in the overall rankings have been picked in the top six just five times out of a possible 78 ballots, but Georgia State accounts for four of those. So after all that, the Panthers will probably finish first, second, third, 10th or 11th.

—Delaware received its first eighth-place vote (BTB) since preseason magazines Sporting News and Lindy’s, as well as its first 12th-place vote (TSX) and two nines. Delaware is one of three schools picked eighth or lower in every poll. The Blue Hens have been picked ninth four times.

—Of the bottom four teams in the overall rankings, the one that seems to have the most positive momentum is UNC Wilmington, which is the only one of the quartet not to get a last-place vote in the most recent polls. The Seahawks got a seventh (BTB), two 10ths and an 11th (TSX) to solidify their 10th-place ranking. They’re also the only school among the bottom four teams predicted to finish higher than eighth in any poll (they were also picked seventh by Lindy’s). The Seahawks have been picked 11th and 12th three times apiece and twice each at seventh, eighth and 10th.

—Towson is as close to last as it is to 10th after getting an eighth (TSX), two 11ths and a 12th (CBS) in the new polls. Nor is this encouraging: The Tigers have been picked at least twice apiece in five different spots—twice each at eighth and ninth and three times each at 10th, 11th and 12th.

—Finally, the College of Bill Lawrence continues to bring up the rear, but the Tribe got its highest vote yet from The Sports Network (eighth). It was also picked once apiece at 10th, 11th and 12th. Overall, the Scrubs have been picked in double digits in all but two polls (Sporting News picked them ninth, hmm, another TSN/TSN similarity). The Tribe has been picked 11th five times.

—Only two of the new polls (BTB and TSX) also picked a player of the year, but TSX selected Jenkins, which puts him alone into second place behind Larry Sanders (BTB’s pick as POY) in the POY Running Tally. Sanders has four votes, Jenkins has 3.5 and Lee has 2.5.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

In which your world-famous blogger attempts to remain humble by continuing his Running Tally

No offense, Mike and Eamonn, but you're not nearly as good-looking as Cindy Mancini.

One of my favorite books ever is The Worst Team Money Could Buy, a warts-and-all behind-the-scenes look at the embarrassment that was the 1992 Mets by longtime New York baseball writers Bob Klapisch and John Harper. The book is as much about the media and the Mets’ toxic relationship with it as it is baseball, which is probably why I love it so much.

The book is filled with little vignettes about what it’s like to be a baseball writer, including one by Klapisch titled “A Day In The Life” that is pretty self-explanatory. Klapisch writes of the pros of his career choice, which include seeing “…his name in print every day—and if you don’t believe that matters, ask how many writers leave their bylines off their stories.”

Sixteen years after the book was published, newspapers are, of course, dead of countless self-inflicted wounds.  So these days, those of us who write for a “living” (snort) do it online and get our rush out of seeing our work linked somewhere else.

And so it was that I pounded my chest on Monday, upon seeing that your good friend and mine Mike Litos linked to my recap of the Blue/Gold Scrimmage Saturday and noted how Charles Jenkins sounded “…like a 40-year-old assistant coach” in praising point guard Chaz Williams. And then, on Tuesday, I ran down the street with my laptop bellowing “WHO’S THE MAN NOW?!” when I saw my story linked by Eamonn Brennan in Yahoo! Sports’ college basketball blog, The Dagger.

I’m in the big time now, and unlike in high school, it didn’t involve me paying the hottest girl in school to pretend to be my girlfriend for a few weeks. Thanks to Mike and Eamonn for the links, and I figure the best way to avoid falling into the same trap I did as a teenager—when my new-found popularity turned me into an insufferable jerk who alienated everyone, at least until the conveniently happy ending in which Cindy and I rode off into the sunset on my lawn mower, please, if that was my life, she’d have to walk off into the sunset as I pushed the mower along—is to get right back into the routine here by doing the same thing I did as a nobody last week, namely posting my second Running Tally of CAA predictions.

(That might be the longest paragraph ever not written by Joseph Conrad, my apologies)

Anyway, we’ve got three new polls added to the Tally: Rivals.com (thanks to Litos for that link as well), Bleacher Report and Rush The Court, the latter of which is written by GMUHoops.com maven Ryan Kish. He doesn’t pick Mason first. He’s a better man than I’d be in that position!

Click on the links to see all the picks. And see below to, err, see the new running tally and how the new additions influenced the overall rankings.

1.) Old Dominion (7) 12

2.) Northeastern 23

3.) VCU (2) 24

4.) George Mason 36

5.) HOFSTRA 49

6.) James Madison 51

7.) Georgia State 71

8.) Drexel 72

9.) Delaware 86

10.) UNC Wilmington 90

11.) Towson 91

12.) William & Mary 97

First place votes in parenthesis

Polls collected thus far: CAA, Blue Ribbon, Sporting News, Lindy’s, Athlon, Brian Mull, Rivals.com, Bleacher Report, Rush The Court

—Our beloved Dutchmen were once again disrespected by the damn liberal media as Rivals.com and Rush The Court picked them sixth and Bleacher Report pegged them for fifth, However, that was enough for the Dutchmen to break the fifth-place tie with James Madison. The Dutchmen have been picked sixth six times (Kickstart My Heart!), fifth once and fourth twice. So many doubters, so little time.

—Old Dominion continues to put a stranglehold on the top spot by collecting three more first-place votes. No other team has been picked in the same place as often as ODU. The Monarchs have been picked first by everyone except Sporting News and Lindy’s.

—Northeastern, meanwhile, surges past VCU for the overall second spot by being picked second in each of the three new polls. The Huskies and Dutchmen are the only teams to be picked in the same spot in six polls. In addition, NU has been picked among the top three eight times in nine polls.

—VCU is still solidly entrenched among the top three after receiving two threes (Rivals and Bleacher Report) and a fourth. The Rams and Old Dominion remain the only two schools picked in the top four in all nine polls.

—If this were the Billboard Hot 100, the “Hot Mover” of the week would be UNC Wilmington, which jumps from 12th to 10th on the strength of two eighths (Rivals and Bleacher Report) and an 11th. Interesting that even the most recent polls are all over the place with the Seahawks—from the afore-mentioned eighth-place picks to Brian Mull’s ninth-place vote and the 12th-place vote in the CAA poll.

—The team whose fortunes seem to be taking the biggest uptick, though, is probably Georgia State, which moves from eighth to seventh thanks to collecting a fourth (Bleacher Report) a fifth (Rivals) and a seventh (RTC). The Panthers remain the most volatile team: They’ve been picked in seven spots in just nine polls. The only places they’ve been selected twice: Eighth and 12th. The only teams picked in as many as five different spots are George Mason, Towson and UNC Wilmington.

—More Georgia State: The Panthers are the only team keeping the ODU-NU-VCU-GMU-Hofstra-JMU sextet from a sweep of the top six spots. Those squads have received 51 of the 54 top six votes.

—George Mason and Delaware are the only teams other than Old Dominion to remain in the same spot as Running Tally I. Mason got a third (RTC), fourth (Rivals) and a sixth (Bleacher Report), the latter of which marked the first time the Patriots have been picked outside the top five. Delaware was picked ninth once (RTC) and 10th twice, which makes sense for a team that is considerably weaker now than it was when the preview magazines were put together in mid-summer. In fact, the only publications to pick the Blue Hens higher than the bottom third were Sporting News and Lindy’s (eighth in both).

—James Madison received a fifth (RTC) and two sevenths to fall behind the Dutchmen. The Dukes have been picked between fifth and seventh in all but one poll (fourth by Lindy’s).

—Drexel was picked below seventh in just one of the first six polls but in all three of the new polls: Eighth by RTC and ninth by Rivals and Bleacher Report. Won’t anyone listen to Litos and stop underestimating the Dragons and Bruiser Flint?

—This probably isn’t the type of versatility Pat Kennedy and Towson fans would like to see: The Tigers were picked 10th (RTC), 11th (Rivals) and 12th (Bleacher Report) in the new polls to fall to 11th overall.

—And finally, the College of Bill Lawrence falls into last thanks to two 12ths (Rivals and RTC) and an 11th. The Scrubs have been picked to finish in double digits by everyone except Sporting News (ninth).

—The Hofstra disrespect is spreading to Charles Jenkins, who was overlooked as the preseason player of the year by both Rivals (Gerald Lee) and Bleacher Report (Larry Sanders). RTC did not select a preseason POY. Sanders is now the leader with three votes, followed by Jenkins and Lee with 2.5 votes apiece.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Running Tally: CAA Predictions

If you play this album backwards, it says "You have made a terrible mistake picking the Flying Dutchmen sixth."

The unpredictability of the CAA is a popular and accurate storyline within the blogosphere, but if the preseason predictions are any indication, the suspense may be at a premium in the conference this season.

There is near-unanimity among the magazines and other writers about the identities of the haves and the have-nots. With only one exception, the top six teams in the overall tally were ranked within the top six by all six polls (Shout! Shout! Shout at the devil!!!!). Obviously, the same applies to the bottom six. The exception: Athlon ranked James Madison seventh, one spot behind Georgia State.

That’s right: The Flying Dutchmen are an overwhelming choice to finish in the top half of the CAA! We’re still very mad at all of you, though, for not picking the Dutchmen first.

To find out where exactly the consensus has the Dutchmen pegged, check out the first running tally of predictions, to be followed by some analysis of the picks as well as a look at how this year’s trends stack up to last year’s.

And just as I did last year, in compiling the polls, I paid tribute to my days as a mediocre cross country runner by awarding each team the point total correspondent with its place in the standings (i.e. one point for first place, 12 points for me, err, last place).

If you happen to come across any previews we’ve missed, by all means, email me or notify me on Twitter so I can update the poll. We had 10 polls last season and I’m sure I missed some.

Tommy Lee drum roll please! 

1.) Old Dominion (4) 9

2.) VCU (2) 14

3.) Northeastern 17

4.) George Mason 23

5t.) HOFSTRA 32

5t.) James Madison 32

7.) Drexel 46

8.) Georgia State 55

9.) Delaware 57

10.) Towson 58

11.) William & Mary 62

12.) UNC Wilmington 63

First place votes in parenthesis

Polls collected thus far: CAA, Blue Ribbon, Sporting News, Lindy’s, Athlon, Brian Mull

—Charles Jenkins is the leader in the clubhouse for Preseason Player of the Year honors with 2.5 votes. He was the pick by Athlon and Mull and shared CAA honors with Gerald Lee. Larry Sanders was tabbed by Sporting News and Lindy’s while Lee was selected by Blue Ribbon.

—The Dutchmen were picked fourth by Sporting News and Lindy’s and sixth by everyone else, which makes them one of three schools picked in the same spot by four different outlets. Old Dominion and Drexel (seventh) are the others. The consistency, for lack of a better word, is a marked change from last year, when the Dutchmen were picked anywhere from fourth (The Sports Xchange) to 12th (The Sports Network).

—Old Dominion and VCU are the only two schools picked in the top four by all six outlets. ODU is the only one unanimously ranked in the top three. The Monarchs were in the top two in every poll except Sporting News.

—Northeastern and VCU are both ranked in the top three by five outlets. The Huskies got three second-place votes (Athlon, Blue Ribbon and CAA) and were picked fifth by Sporting News while the Rams received two first-place votes (Sporting News and Lindy’s) and a second-place vote (Mull) in addition to their fourth-place selection by Blue Ribbon.

—George Mason was ranked in the top five by all six outlets. The Patriots’ highest vote came from Sporting News (second) and their lowest from Lindy’s and Athlon (fifth).

—James Madison received three fifth-place votes (Blue Ribbon, CAA, Mull), making the Dukes one of four teams to be picked in the same spot in three polls.  In addition to Northeastern, William & Mary got three 11th-place votes and UNC Wilmington got three 12th-place votes.

—In addition to its four seventh-place votes—an acknowledgment, perhaps, of how Bruiser Flint’s team exceeded expectations last season—Drexel also placed eighth (Blue Ribbon) and 10th (Lindy’s).

—Once again, the bouncing ball award goes to Georgia State, which is ranked anywhere from sixth (Athlon) to last (Sporting News and Lindy’s) as well as eighth (CAA and Mull) and ninth (Blue Ribbon).

—Delaware is ranked eighth or lower in all six polls, and it should be noted its two 11th-place votes came in the most recent rankings (CAA and Mull). The Blue Hens, of course, lost starting point guard Brian Johnson to a season-ending knee injury in August.

—Towson and William & Mary (which, by the way, in a homage to the awesomeness of Scrubs, will now be dubbed the College of Bill Lawrence) are both ranked in the bottom third of every poll. Good news for fans of the Tigers and Fighting Lawrences: Drexel was ranked in the bottom third of every preseason poll a year ago and was in contention for a first-round bye until literally the last second of the regular season.

—Only one other school has a gap of more than three spots between its highest and lowest ranking: UNC Wilmington was picked seventh by Lindy’s and last by Athlon’s, Blue Ribbon and the CAA. The Seahawks were also picked ninth by Mull.

—There was a lot more fluidity in last year’s polls, as you can see by clicking on our first, second, third and fourth running tallies. The gist: Through six polls last year, three teams had been ranked in the top half of every poll (VCU, Northeastern and George Mason) and three teams had been ranked in the bottom half of every poll (Towson, William & Mary and Drexel).

—That said, there is some movement within the rankings: There are no unanimous picks through six polls. Last year at this juncture, there were two: VCU (first) and Delaware (fifth). Ehh, win some, lose some.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.