Bits and Bytes: Of optimism and injustices

William & Mary grad Chris Turk is thrilled to have tickets to the Flying Dutchmen-Tribe game tonight. Wait til he finds out that J.D. thought Turk was in charge of bringing the tickets, though.

If you’re anything like me—once again, I’m very sorry—then you saw the CAA schedule when it was released in August and figured one of the few sure things for the Flying Dutchmen during conference play was a pair of wins over the College of Bill Lawrence Jan. 2 and Jan. 16.

Everyone else seemed to agree with us, too, as the Fighting Lawrences were a consensus pick to finish last in the CAA. Except, of course, CBL has emerged as one of the nation’s surprise teams, compiling a top-10 RPI thanks to road wins over Wake Forest and Maryland and winning five of its first six conference games. Three of those wins have been by a single point, including a 48-47 win over the Dutchmen two weeks ago today in which CBL trailed for the first 39 minutes, which fuels the notion that this is finally The Year for CBL, which has never made the NCAA Tournament.

The Dutchmen, of course, are the anti-CBL. Like CBL, the Dutchmen played an upgraded non-conference schedule, but the type of wins that would have boosted the RPI and the Dutchmen’s at-large candidacy never materialized as they squandered second half leads against UConn, St. John’s and Charlotte. The Dutchmen have been similarly star-crossed during conference play: In addition to falling to CBL and George Mason by combined five points in consecutive games, they lost freshmen Chaz Williams and David Imes last week due to high ankle sprains and learned this week that Brad Kelleher is officially a poster boy for the NCAA’s skewered sense of justice.

As a result, the Dutchmen will likely take the court tonight with just seven scholarship players, though I wouldn’t be shocked if Williams manages to make it back. Regardless, being ice-cold and hexed and going on the road to visit red-hot and charmed is not the optimal situation for a team staring at the possibility of a 3-6 or 2-7 start in conference play.

Of course, we specialize in optimism here and in thinking of ways the Dutchmen can win, so we’ll spend the hours until game time figuring that Pecora has whipped his team into an us-against-the-world fury, that the Dutchmen are at their most dangerous when they are wounded—it was a year ago today that the reeling Dutchmen knocked off first-place Northeastern, which was just 12 days removed from a wire-to-wire thrashing of the Dutchmen in Boston—that this is a much better matchup for the undermanned Dutchmen than VCU was and that CBL’s run of incredibly good fortune has to come to an end some time.

Turns out your good friend and mine Mike Litos doesn’t think the concept of a Dutchmen win is so crazy, either. He predicts another narrow CBL win but lays out the ingredients for a Hofstra upset: A big night from Charles Jenkins and Nathaniel Lester’s return from witness protection. We’ve said it multiple times this month: When Lester is the Dutchmen’s second-best player—when he plays 30 minutes and gets himself to the foul line with regularity—they win far more often than not. But who knows which Lester will show up tonight?

I’ll add that as important as Lester is to the Dutchmen’s fortunes, they’ll also need Miklos Szabo’s recent resurgence to be a trend and not an aberration. He has played quite well the last three games (during which he has averaged 8.7 points and seven rebounds), avoided the foul trouble that plagued him earlier in the year and earned back his starting job.

If Pecora is grumpy and sparse with his praise late tonight, I’ll bet you it’s good news for the Dutchmen. After all, he didn’t complement the Dutchmen last year when they finally began playing up to their potential.

A win here and things will look a lot better. We’ll be tuning in—hopefully on the William & Mary website, unless it sucks like the Florida Atlantic one did—and live Tweeting throughout. Join us, won’t you? It’s much better than the NFL playoffs.

A couple other quick bits and bytes:

—In writing last night’s piece about the similarities between this year’s slow CAA start and last year’s slow start, I reconstructed the 2008-09 standings through six games. Worth a look as a reminder of how much things can change over the final two-thirds of the season.

2008-09: Through six

George Mason 6-0

Northeastern 6-0

VCU 5-1

James Madison 4-2

Old Dominion 3-3

Drexel 3-3

Hofstra 2-4

Georgia State 2-4

Towson 2-4

Delaware 1-5

UNCW 1-5

William & Mary 1-5

Final standings

VCU 14-4

George Mason 13-5

Northeastern 12-6

Old Dominion 12-6

Hofstra 11-7

Drexel 10-8

James Madison 9-9

Georgia State 8-10

Delaware 6-12

William & Mary 5-13

Towson 5-13

UNCW 3-15

—Injustice update No. 1: Save Hofstra Football is hosting a fundraiser tonight at Public House in Manhattan from 4-8. NFL memorabilia donated by the likes of Wayne Chrebet and Dave Fiore will be auctioned off, as well as golf outings to local courses. For more information, check out the Save Hofstra Football website. The group is also hosting a rally at Bar Social (the old Bogarts) Tuesday from 5-7 p.m., just before the basketball game against George Mason.

—Injustice update No. 2: The NCAA issued a statement in response to Tom Pecora’s comments in Friday’s Newsday in which he blistered the so-called governing body for declaring Brad Kelleher ineligible because he signed a contract with—but was never paid by—a professional team in his native Australia five years ago.

It boggles the mind to think of how many people were paid obscene amounts of money to drum up this crap: “Coach Pecora’s comments are both inappropriate and inaccurate. Brad Kelleher’s eligibility is not finally determined, but a Division I committee that includes Hofstra’s peers has sustained the finding that he signed a previous professional contract which makes him ineligible.

“Like any NCAA institution, Hofstra now has the opportunity to seek Mr. Kelleher’s reinstatement from the NCAA. This process starts with a review by NCAA staff, and the university can also appeal staff decisions to the Student-Athlete Reinstatement Committee, comprised of representatives from NCAA schools and conferences.”

So let’s get this straight: The NCAA has declared Kelleher ineligible, but it’s not a final decision and Hofstra can make an appeal to a committee comprised of the same people who already declared Kelleher ineligible. Oh. OK then. That’s fair. I’m sure the appeal will be a fruitful endeavor. I’m convinced Dilbert creator Scott Adams worked at the NCAA before turning to comics. And I’m convinced that Pecora’s comments only scratch the surface of how livid he is with those bureaucratic lowlifes.

But hey, Stuart Rabinowitz sent a letter to the NCAA. No word on whether he needed to conduct a secret “two-year study” before composing it, though.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

In which we learn to no longer dread Jan. 2 (Also…28 Days Later: The CAA Preview)

The author, above, sits in a classroom dreading the start of school on Jan. 2 while wistfully recalling how he got to stay up all night just two nights earlier in this file photo from 1988. Or 1989. Or 1990. Or...you know what, the year isn't important.

Back in the old days, Jan. 2 was more often than not the lousiest day of the year. As long as it fell between Tuesday and Thursday, it meant I’d be trudging into the first day of school after Christmas vacation less than 36 hours after reveling in the alternate universe that was New Years Eve.

As a kid, New Years Eve meant a dinner out for our normally thrifty parents, which in turn meant a rare night in which my sister and I could order pizza and have the run of the house for a couple hours (“Sure, babysitter, our Dad always allows us to eat a tub of ice cream apiece!”).

Later, in my teenage years, New Years Eve was the one day of the year when my curfew was relaxed and I was allowed to stay out far later than usual—as long, of course, as I was at a trustworthy friend’s house or at the town-sponsored drug- and alcohol-free party. And I was always at a trustworthy friend’s house or the town-sponsored drug- and alcohol-free party…my teenaged years were completely free of booze and largely absent of drama and romance, but I digress.

To have school on Jan. 2 and to have to downshift so quickly back to the drudgery of day-to-day monotony—to know, when I finally went to bed in the pre-dawn hours of New Years morning, that the end of vacation was on the other side of sleep—seemed to be an especially cruel form of punishment, and I surely stayed up an extra hour or two just to stave off the inevitable as long as possible.

All of which brings me to the change in odometer from 2009 to 2010, and the fact that conference play reboots in the CAA with six games tomorrow—Jan. 2. From revelry to reality, all in 36 hours. Except, of course, Jan. 2 is a Saturday this year and we’ve had Jan. 2 circled on our calendar for months.

Kyle Whelliston at The Mid-Majority and your good friend and mine Mike Litos have already put the anticipation that accompanies the real start of conference season in far finer terms than I could. All I will add is pay particular heed to Mike when he implores you to enjoy the ride—because we go from standing still to a 4x100 sprint as soon as tomorrow tips off. One-third of the conference schedule will be complete 13 days from now. And we’ll be halfway home 17 days from now. Hmm. Maybe the conference season is like New Years Eve in another way—months and months of buildup for an event that is gone in the blink of an eye.

Anyway, there’s a decent chance that the Flying Dutchmen’s first game of the decade will be one worth remembering when it comes time to wax poetic about the best of the ‘10s. If polls were released on Friday instead of Monday, there’s a good chance William & Mary would be the second ranked team to ever visit Hofstra Arena today.

The Fightin’ Bill Lawrences have won nine in a row, are fresh off a waxing of Maryland in College Park and are ranked sixth in RPI. Not in the CAA, in the country. Pretty good for a team that was the consensus pick to finish dead freakin’ last in the conference.

Regardless of national ranking—or lack thereof—the FBLs are, in multiple ways, an appropriate foe to begin the real conference season. This afternoon is a delicious strength vs. strength matchup pitting the FBLs, who rank third in the nation with an average of 10.7 3-pointers per game, against the Dutchmen, who rank seventh in the country in defending the 3-pointers (25.6 percent).

In addition, the FBLs will provide the first in a series of tests during a rigorous season-opening stretch for the Dutchmen, whose first five opponents this month (William & Mary, George Mason, Towson, Old Dominion and VCU) began the New Year with a collective winning percentage of .625. Only UNC Wilmington (.661) is facing a tougher slate over the first five games. The list:

UNC Wilmington: 39-20 (.661)

HOFSTRA: 35-21 (.625)

Delaware: 34-23 (.596)

Towson: 36-27 (.571)

Drexel: 31-25 (.554)

Northeastern: 31-27 (.534)

George Mason: 33-29 (.532)

James Madison: 30-28 (.517)

Old Dominion: 27-30 (.474)

William & Mary: 28-32 (.467)

VCU: 27-34 (.443)

Georgia State: 24-34 (.414)

“This year is probably the most difficult conference schedule we’ve played,” Tom Pecora said after practice today. “We’re playing five games in 10 days and we’re playing the teams that are at the top of the conference. So this is going to be a great challenge for us. The first 10 days of true conference play could really define our season.”

Of course, Pecora reserves the right to minimize the importance of this five-game stretch if the Dutchmen go 1-4 or—egads—0-5. My guess is it will be neither awful nor awesome and that a 2-3 or 3-2 mark sets the Dutchmen up well to improve upon last year’s 11-7 conference mark, which was fashioned with a team not nearly as talented as this one.

The non-conference schedule has provided plenty of glimpses at the potential of the Dutchmen. They are still prone to bipolar moments, but unlike a year ago, these are a byproduct of youth. Given the upgraded roster, I’d typically assume a couple more wins than a year ago, especially with the second half of the conference schedule seemingly positioning the Dutchmen for their annual February surge.

That said, we all know how quickly a friendly looking schedule can turn sour, and the Dutchmen are usually good for one head-scratching road defeat. So let’s assume 12-6 and a fourth-place finish. Only twice in the last eight years has a 12-win team failed to finish in the top four.

It’ll all begin this afternoon with a nice RPI-boosting win over the FBLs. If you’re not there at the Arena, you better have the excuse of living in Virginia, since this is the first home game in three weeks. But if you’re not there, follow along with us on Twitter. This is my first home CAA game as a Tweeter, so it feels like the real season is beginning for me, too. Hopefully I don’t choke, and hopefully I remember to hashtag #caa once I get rolling. See you there…in one medium or another.

***

I planned on projecting the CAA in two parts—right before the faux conference opener Dec. 5 and right before the reboot, figuring it would be fun to see how much effect the final month of non-conference play had on the perceptions of the conference at large. Except, well, on Dec. 3, Hofstra killed football, so that kinda scrapped the plans to post hoops content over those next couple days.

And now that four weeks have gone by, I’d be lying if I told you I remembered the exact order of my predictions. I will say my picks for first and last are the same, and the biggest leap has been made by—shocking!—William & Mary. Northeastern probably took the biggest fall, from second to fifth, and I won’t be surprised if I overreacted a bit to their respective starts, especially with Northeastern looking as if it is beginning to find its way.

Anyway, here are the picks, preserved forever so that you can mock me in March:

1.) Old Dominion

2.) VCU

3.) William & Mary

4.) Hofstra

5.) Northeastern

6.) Drexel

7.) George Mason

8.) James Madison

9.) UNC Wilmington

10.) Georgia State

11.) Delaware

12.) Towson

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.