In which we learn to no longer dread Jan. 2 (Also…28 Days Later: The CAA Preview)

The author, above, sits in a classroom dreading the start of school on Jan. 2 while wistfully recalling how he got to stay up all night just two nights earlier in this file photo from 1988. Or 1989. Or 1990. Or...you know what, the year isn't important.

Back in the old days, Jan. 2 was more often than not the lousiest day of the year. As long as it fell between Tuesday and Thursday, it meant I’d be trudging into the first day of school after Christmas vacation less than 36 hours after reveling in the alternate universe that was New Years Eve.

As a kid, New Years Eve meant a dinner out for our normally thrifty parents, which in turn meant a rare night in which my sister and I could order pizza and have the run of the house for a couple hours (“Sure, babysitter, our Dad always allows us to eat a tub of ice cream apiece!”).

Later, in my teenage years, New Years Eve was the one day of the year when my curfew was relaxed and I was allowed to stay out far later than usual—as long, of course, as I was at a trustworthy friend’s house or at the town-sponsored drug- and alcohol-free party. And I was always at a trustworthy friend’s house or the town-sponsored drug- and alcohol-free party…my teenaged years were completely free of booze and largely absent of drama and romance, but I digress.

To have school on Jan. 2 and to have to downshift so quickly back to the drudgery of day-to-day monotony—to know, when I finally went to bed in the pre-dawn hours of New Years morning, that the end of vacation was on the other side of sleep—seemed to be an especially cruel form of punishment, and I surely stayed up an extra hour or two just to stave off the inevitable as long as possible.

All of which brings me to the change in odometer from 2009 to 2010, and the fact that conference play reboots in the CAA with six games tomorrow—Jan. 2. From revelry to reality, all in 36 hours. Except, of course, Jan. 2 is a Saturday this year and we’ve had Jan. 2 circled on our calendar for months.

Kyle Whelliston at The Mid-Majority and your good friend and mine Mike Litos have already put the anticipation that accompanies the real start of conference season in far finer terms than I could. All I will add is pay particular heed to Mike when he implores you to enjoy the ride—because we go from standing still to a 4x100 sprint as soon as tomorrow tips off. One-third of the conference schedule will be complete 13 days from now. And we’ll be halfway home 17 days from now. Hmm. Maybe the conference season is like New Years Eve in another way—months and months of buildup for an event that is gone in the blink of an eye.

Anyway, there’s a decent chance that the Flying Dutchmen’s first game of the decade will be one worth remembering when it comes time to wax poetic about the best of the ‘10s. If polls were released on Friday instead of Monday, there’s a good chance William & Mary would be the second ranked team to ever visit Hofstra Arena today.

The Fightin’ Bill Lawrences have won nine in a row, are fresh off a waxing of Maryland in College Park and are ranked sixth in RPI. Not in the CAA, in the country. Pretty good for a team that was the consensus pick to finish dead freakin’ last in the conference.

Regardless of national ranking—or lack thereof—the FBLs are, in multiple ways, an appropriate foe to begin the real conference season. This afternoon is a delicious strength vs. strength matchup pitting the FBLs, who rank third in the nation with an average of 10.7 3-pointers per game, against the Dutchmen, who rank seventh in the country in defending the 3-pointers (25.6 percent).

In addition, the FBLs will provide the first in a series of tests during a rigorous season-opening stretch for the Dutchmen, whose first five opponents this month (William & Mary, George Mason, Towson, Old Dominion and VCU) began the New Year with a collective winning percentage of .625. Only UNC Wilmington (.661) is facing a tougher slate over the first five games. The list:

UNC Wilmington: 39-20 (.661)

HOFSTRA: 35-21 (.625)

Delaware: 34-23 (.596)

Towson: 36-27 (.571)

Drexel: 31-25 (.554)

Northeastern: 31-27 (.534)

George Mason: 33-29 (.532)

James Madison: 30-28 (.517)

Old Dominion: 27-30 (.474)

William & Mary: 28-32 (.467)

VCU: 27-34 (.443)

Georgia State: 24-34 (.414)

“This year is probably the most difficult conference schedule we’ve played,” Tom Pecora said after practice today. “We’re playing five games in 10 days and we’re playing the teams that are at the top of the conference. So this is going to be a great challenge for us. The first 10 days of true conference play could really define our season.”

Of course, Pecora reserves the right to minimize the importance of this five-game stretch if the Dutchmen go 1-4 or—egads—0-5. My guess is it will be neither awful nor awesome and that a 2-3 or 3-2 mark sets the Dutchmen up well to improve upon last year’s 11-7 conference mark, which was fashioned with a team not nearly as talented as this one.

The non-conference schedule has provided plenty of glimpses at the potential of the Dutchmen. They are still prone to bipolar moments, but unlike a year ago, these are a byproduct of youth. Given the upgraded roster, I’d typically assume a couple more wins than a year ago, especially with the second half of the conference schedule seemingly positioning the Dutchmen for their annual February surge.

That said, we all know how quickly a friendly looking schedule can turn sour, and the Dutchmen are usually good for one head-scratching road defeat. So let’s assume 12-6 and a fourth-place finish. Only twice in the last eight years has a 12-win team failed to finish in the top four.

It’ll all begin this afternoon with a nice RPI-boosting win over the FBLs. If you’re not there at the Arena, you better have the excuse of living in Virginia, since this is the first home game in three weeks. But if you’re not there, follow along with us on Twitter. This is my first home CAA game as a Tweeter, so it feels like the real season is beginning for me, too. Hopefully I don’t choke, and hopefully I remember to hashtag #caa once I get rolling. See you there…in one medium or another.

***

I planned on projecting the CAA in two parts—right before the faux conference opener Dec. 5 and right before the reboot, figuring it would be fun to see how much effect the final month of non-conference play had on the perceptions of the conference at large. Except, well, on Dec. 3, Hofstra killed football, so that kinda scrapped the plans to post hoops content over those next couple days.

And now that four weeks have gone by, I’d be lying if I told you I remembered the exact order of my predictions. I will say my picks for first and last are the same, and the biggest leap has been made by—shocking!—William & Mary. Northeastern probably took the biggest fall, from second to fifth, and I won’t be surprised if I overreacted a bit to their respective starts, especially with Northeastern looking as if it is beginning to find its way.

Anyway, here are the picks, preserved forever so that you can mock me in March:

1.) Old Dominion

2.) VCU

3.) William & Mary

4.) Hofstra

5.) Northeastern

6.) Drexel

7.) George Mason

8.) James Madison

9.) UNC Wilmington

10.) Georgia State

11.) Delaware

12.) Towson

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

If everyone else picked Delaware 5th, would you?

I've got a fever and the only cure is more predictions!

Getting ready to post these predictions reminded me of a couple interesting theories about blogging and writing I’ve read while absorbing pre-season information the last few weeks.

CAA Blog Daddy Michael Litos quoted a gentlemen by the name of Jeff Jarvis Nov. 5 when he declared that he’s following Jarvis’ advice this year by doing what he does best and linking to the rest. One of those links is the UNC-Wilmington page at the Wilmington Star News, whose UNCW beat writer, Brian Mull, wrote Nov. 12 that he didn’t forget to preview the CAA, he just thought his own preview would be “…redundant and unnecessary” given the previews that were already written by people such as Litos.

It’s obviously imperative to follow and recognize the rest of the CAA, but there’s no way I can approximate the coverage Litos and the beat writers provide the other 11 schools. Their institutional knowledge of those, well, institutions make them an invaluable resource who can tell you what’s going on at there far better than I ever could. I’ll be far better off if I mostly stick to prattling on about Hofstra.

Yet I also admire Mull’s restraint, because quite frankly, I love making predictions. As I noted earlier this fall, dog-eared copies of season preview annuals were my best friends every summer and winter as a kid. And my favorite part of the year as a magazine writer and editor was (and hopefully will be again) putting together baseball previews.

In fact, Loyal Reader Rob and I like predictions so much that it’s not enough just to make them once per football season. We have to do it some variation of it every single week by trading power rankings (which is, as Mike Florio of the always-entertaining Pro Football Talk noted earlier today, a cliché of the highest order…but also too much fun to resist).

So consider these predictions, then, a simultaneous nod to the philosophies of Litos and Mull and a scratching of a familiar itch. I don’t have any in-depth analysis of the Other 11, I leave that to Litos, whose previews are linked with each team. And clip and save—err, I mean, bookmark—so we can see how well (or, more likely, how poorly) I fared come March, when Hofstra finishes off a perfect CAA season. Muahahaha.

Also note these predictions were made last week and have not been influenced at all by the opening week of games.

1.) VCU (first preview): The whole season boils down to winning two more tourney games than last year. Not very fair, of course, but with the reigning CAA player of the year, the hottest mid-major coach in the land (Loyal Reader Jill thinks that’s the case, literally) and the sting of last year’s shocking semifinal loss in the tourney and subsequent screw job by the Selection Committee surely driving Anthony Grant’s team, the regular season won’t be a problem for the Rams. Is 17-1—a mark no team has ever enjoyed in regular season play—within reach?

2.) Northeastern: Five starters back and only one is a senior. For the first time since before Hofstra joined the NAC, Northeastern may be on its way to becoming a perennial power in its conference.

3.) Old Dominion (second preview): Experienced, well-coached and talented, like every year. Plus, you can set your clock to it: Five straight top-four finishes and first-round byes for the Monarchs.

4.) Hofstra: See this post for our preview from last Friday.

5.) Delaware: Monte Ross continues to lift the Blue Hens out of the David Henderson mess—which is fine by me. The season is more fun when DD-era rival Delaware is good.

6.) George Mason: Undeniable talent among the newcomers and if I had to pick a favorite for 2010-11, I’d pick the Patriots. But it’s 2008-09 and I have a hunch chemistry will be a disaster for at least a few weeks.

7.) William & Mary: There’ll be plenty of hunger here too among the returnees from last year’s near-miss club. If Litos says he’s underestimated the Tribe, well, that’s good enough for me to bump them up a couple spots.

8.) Georgia State: See George Mason, including the whole favorite for 2010-11 thing with this guy choosing the Panthers over a bundle of BCS powerhouses. A couple transfers this year is fine. But four?

9.) Drexel: As undermanned as the Dragons seem, I just can’t see a Bruiser Flint-coached team finishing last two years in a row. They’ll be tough and they’ll be scrappy and they’ll win a few 53-50 games.

10.) James Madison: Transitional years under the new guy are rarely pretty, but Matt Brady will have JMU in the upper half of the league sooner than later.

11.) UNC-Wilmington: Chad Tomko is fun to watch, but the cupboard is otherwise bare.

12.) Towson: Can’t shake the feeling that three suspensions before the opening tip is a bad, bad sign of things to come. And the last time a Pat Kennedy-coached team had a winning season? DePaul in 1999-2000—eight years and three stops ago.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com.

No, we're not talking about THAT Triumph

I wonder if these guys ever played the PFC.

This, that and the other thing while I check my watch and impatiently wait to see where the Flying Dutchmen basketball team will land in the CAA pre-season poll, which will be released during the conference’s Media Day Wednesday:

***

I’m not sure what would have sounded more unbelievable during the fall of 1993: That the campus I was inhabiting would someday host a presidential debate, that neophyte talk show host Conan O’Brien would someday replace Jay Leno as the host of The Tonight Show (if you want to remember just how overmatched O’Brien appeared, check out his debut monologue from Sept. 13, 1993…he reminds me of me flopping miserably in speech class) or that a puppet dog who appears on O’Brien show and talks about his poop would one day invade the Physical Fitness Center.

For the purposes of this post, I’ll say “C.” Triumph the Insult Comic Dog defiled what used to be the rockingest house in the NAC Wednesday, when he and the Fake Mr. Met patrolled the spin room in the PFC (Triumph begins around the 11:45 mark). Fun fact: This bit aired a mere three hours after Fake Seth Meyers dogged Hofstra. SNL and Triumph mocking Hofstra on the same night: Now THAT’S publicity you can’t buy!!!

I should preface this by saying Triumph makes me laugh. His appearances on Conan are can’t-miss affairs (and I almost missed this one, too, thank you very much historic Red Sox comeback!). Triumph’s routine with fans lining up weeks ahead of time for the return of Star Wars in 1999 is the funniest thing I have ever seen. I mean, ever. If you don’t agree, you’re wrong. And the skit Thursday cracked me up several times, especially the image of Mr. Met floating behind Fox News Channel anchor Greta Van Susteren.

Plus, let’s face it: The more we’re able to laugh at this whole process, the better.

All that said: Isn’t a presidential debate a little too serious for the Triumphs of the world? I get annoyed by buffoons who somehow obtain press passes to the Super Bowl and World Series at the expense of people who, you know, actually work. (Dear Tom Arnold, who managed to make a tool of himself while the Florida Marlins celebrated their 2003 World Championship: You do not deserve a press pass. Ever.)

In the end, of course, you can’t get too wrapped up about the Tom Arnolds and Julie Browns of the world, because it’s just sports. And, sure, Triumph didn’t spring up behind Bob Schieffer and ask a question of John McCain and Barack Obama.

But still…this is the most pivotal election in American history. You’d think the powers that be—and according to this link from 2004, it’s the Commission on Presidential Debates that credentials reporters to the debates—would think twice about intentionally diminishing the solemnity of the event and inviting on-site mocking for the host schools by credentialing a puppet dog who ended his routine by pretending to hump a baseball mascot.

While I laughed at the line, I can’t imagine Stuart Rabinowitz was thrilled with Triumph’s crack at the school: “The best America has to offer has descended upon Hofstra University. Yes, Hofstra University: The place DeVry applicants use as a safety school!” Or maybe it’ll all be worth it when 52 percent of incoming freshmen in the fall of 2009 say they heard about Hofstra from Triumph the Insult Comic Dog.

***

Unlucky timing of the year award goes to the Flying Dutchwomen field hockey team, which had to play Columbia Wednesday night while the rest of the campus reveled in its 15 minutes of international fame. Making matters worse was the 3-0 loss the Dutchwomen suffered—the fourth defeat in their current five-game losing streak.

***

We got another whiff of the big time Wednesday when Newsday.com linked our Wednesday post about the questions I’d ask if I was moderating the debate. Thanks to Newsday.com as well as loyal reader KAC, who found the link. I don’t want you to think I sit around all day, using Google News’ “blog search” to find mentions of Defiantly Dutch. I do that all night, thank you very much.

***

Defiantly Dutch has made its first purchase. I can’t believe this page was available at pro-football-reference.com. I call this $15 well-spent.

***

And I’ll further whet your (and my) appetite for the CAA predictions by mentioning a couple preseason polls/predictions. Collegehoops.net is asking fans to pick the CAA winner: George Mason, Northwestern, ODU, VCU or “other.” VCU is the leader so far. Also check out the Q&A there with Tom Pecora.

And CAA blogger extraordinaire Michael Litos has penned the CAA preview for The Blue Ribbon Yearbook and picked Hofstra eighth. (No link to the content, just to a website where you can buy the Yearbook…not giving the goods away for free online, what a concept) Litos explains on the CAA Zone message boards that he sees the Flying Dutchmen as a sleeper in the conference and that he’d pick them as high as sixth if he was writing the article now. Well, not right now. He’s probably sleeping right now, like most normal people.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com.