In which we learn to no longer dread Jan. 2 (Also…28 Days Later: The CAA Preview)

The author, above, sits in a classroom dreading the start of school on Jan. 2 while wistfully recalling how he got to stay up all night just two nights earlier in this file photo from 1988. Or 1989. Or 1990. Or...you know what, the year isn't important.

Back in the old days, Jan. 2 was more often than not the lousiest day of the year. As long as it fell between Tuesday and Thursday, it meant I’d be trudging into the first day of school after Christmas vacation less than 36 hours after reveling in the alternate universe that was New Years Eve.

As a kid, New Years Eve meant a dinner out for our normally thrifty parents, which in turn meant a rare night in which my sister and I could order pizza and have the run of the house for a couple hours (“Sure, babysitter, our Dad always allows us to eat a tub of ice cream apiece!”).

Later, in my teenage years, New Years Eve was the one day of the year when my curfew was relaxed and I was allowed to stay out far later than usual—as long, of course, as I was at a trustworthy friend’s house or at the town-sponsored drug- and alcohol-free party. And I was always at a trustworthy friend’s house or the town-sponsored drug- and alcohol-free party…my teenaged years were completely free of booze and largely absent of drama and romance, but I digress.

To have school on Jan. 2 and to have to downshift so quickly back to the drudgery of day-to-day monotony—to know, when I finally went to bed in the pre-dawn hours of New Years morning, that the end of vacation was on the other side of sleep—seemed to be an especially cruel form of punishment, and I surely stayed up an extra hour or two just to stave off the inevitable as long as possible.

All of which brings me to the change in odometer from 2009 to 2010, and the fact that conference play reboots in the CAA with six games tomorrow—Jan. 2. From revelry to reality, all in 36 hours. Except, of course, Jan. 2 is a Saturday this year and we’ve had Jan. 2 circled on our calendar for months.

Kyle Whelliston at The Mid-Majority and your good friend and mine Mike Litos have already put the anticipation that accompanies the real start of conference season in far finer terms than I could. All I will add is pay particular heed to Mike when he implores you to enjoy the ride—because we go from standing still to a 4x100 sprint as soon as tomorrow tips off. One-third of the conference schedule will be complete 13 days from now. And we’ll be halfway home 17 days from now. Hmm. Maybe the conference season is like New Years Eve in another way—months and months of buildup for an event that is gone in the blink of an eye.

Anyway, there’s a decent chance that the Flying Dutchmen’s first game of the decade will be one worth remembering when it comes time to wax poetic about the best of the ‘10s. If polls were released on Friday instead of Monday, there’s a good chance William & Mary would be the second ranked team to ever visit Hofstra Arena today.

The Fightin’ Bill Lawrences have won nine in a row, are fresh off a waxing of Maryland in College Park and are ranked sixth in RPI. Not in the CAA, in the country. Pretty good for a team that was the consensus pick to finish dead freakin’ last in the conference.

Regardless of national ranking—or lack thereof—the FBLs are, in multiple ways, an appropriate foe to begin the real conference season. This afternoon is a delicious strength vs. strength matchup pitting the FBLs, who rank third in the nation with an average of 10.7 3-pointers per game, against the Dutchmen, who rank seventh in the country in defending the 3-pointers (25.6 percent).

In addition, the FBLs will provide the first in a series of tests during a rigorous season-opening stretch for the Dutchmen, whose first five opponents this month (William & Mary, George Mason, Towson, Old Dominion and VCU) began the New Year with a collective winning percentage of .625. Only UNC Wilmington (.661) is facing a tougher slate over the first five games. The list:

UNC Wilmington: 39-20 (.661)

HOFSTRA: 35-21 (.625)

Delaware: 34-23 (.596)

Towson: 36-27 (.571)

Drexel: 31-25 (.554)

Northeastern: 31-27 (.534)

George Mason: 33-29 (.532)

James Madison: 30-28 (.517)

Old Dominion: 27-30 (.474)

William & Mary: 28-32 (.467)

VCU: 27-34 (.443)

Georgia State: 24-34 (.414)

“This year is probably the most difficult conference schedule we’ve played,” Tom Pecora said after practice today. “We’re playing five games in 10 days and we’re playing the teams that are at the top of the conference. So this is going to be a great challenge for us. The first 10 days of true conference play could really define our season.”

Of course, Pecora reserves the right to minimize the importance of this five-game stretch if the Dutchmen go 1-4 or—egads—0-5. My guess is it will be neither awful nor awesome and that a 2-3 or 3-2 mark sets the Dutchmen up well to improve upon last year’s 11-7 conference mark, which was fashioned with a team not nearly as talented as this one.

The non-conference schedule has provided plenty of glimpses at the potential of the Dutchmen. They are still prone to bipolar moments, but unlike a year ago, these are a byproduct of youth. Given the upgraded roster, I’d typically assume a couple more wins than a year ago, especially with the second half of the conference schedule seemingly positioning the Dutchmen for their annual February surge.

That said, we all know how quickly a friendly looking schedule can turn sour, and the Dutchmen are usually good for one head-scratching road defeat. So let’s assume 12-6 and a fourth-place finish. Only twice in the last eight years has a 12-win team failed to finish in the top four.

It’ll all begin this afternoon with a nice RPI-boosting win over the FBLs. If you’re not there at the Arena, you better have the excuse of living in Virginia, since this is the first home game in three weeks. But if you’re not there, follow along with us on Twitter. This is my first home CAA game as a Tweeter, so it feels like the real season is beginning for me, too. Hopefully I don’t choke, and hopefully I remember to hashtag #caa once I get rolling. See you there…in one medium or another.

***

I planned on projecting the CAA in two parts—right before the faux conference opener Dec. 5 and right before the reboot, figuring it would be fun to see how much effect the final month of non-conference play had on the perceptions of the conference at large. Except, well, on Dec. 3, Hofstra killed football, so that kinda scrapped the plans to post hoops content over those next couple days.

And now that four weeks have gone by, I’d be lying if I told you I remembered the exact order of my predictions. I will say my picks for first and last are the same, and the biggest leap has been made by—shocking!—William & Mary. Northeastern probably took the biggest fall, from second to fifth, and I won’t be surprised if I overreacted a bit to their respective starts, especially with Northeastern looking as if it is beginning to find its way.

Anyway, here are the picks, preserved forever so that you can mock me in March:

1.) Old Dominion

2.) VCU

3.) William & Mary

4.) Hofstra

5.) Northeastern

6.) Drexel

7.) George Mason

8.) James Madison

9.) UNC Wilmington

10.) Georgia State

11.) Delaware

12.) Towson

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

Bits And Bytes: The “I Don’t Feel Tardy” Edition

How come my physics homework was never quite like this?

Technically, I was accurate nearly three weeks ago when I promised to return with a story about Jay Wright’s hiring within days and also to get back into some sort of regular posting routine. I mean, twenty-something days is still within days! And really, what’s “regular” in the world of blogging? How many millions of people have started a blog, made a debut post, and never posted again? I’m Metamucil, baybee!

Anyway, I do apologize for my extended absence. Part of it is just having trouble getting back into the swing of things after the events of March. Speaking of which, I appreciate all the kind notes and comments I received following the post about my Mom. It meant a lot to me and I’m sorry if I was a little lax in replying. Writing thank you cards and notes was another confirmation that all this really did happen so I found myself putting them off.

In happier news, I’ve also been unavailable here because I’ve been neck-deep in another blog—one that promotes my book about the Boston Red Sox and the media that is coming out in a couple weeks. It’s called Fighting Words, and I lost an arm wrestling match with my publisher over the subtitle. He wanted The Media, The Red Sox And The All-Encompassing Passion For Baseball In Boston. I wanted What I Finally Finished On My Unplanned Summer Vacation. Oh well.

I wear my Super Serious Reporter Dude hat over there more often than I do here (but I still post Simpsons pictures and am just salivating at the first chance to post a photo of Sarah Chalke). I’m offering analysis of the Red Sox and the media in Boston as well as posting interviews I conducted in writing the book.

I’ve gotten into the routine of posting every weekday and think I’ve gotten the kinks out. So I humbly request you visit the blog…and then, when the book comes out, buy 10 copies for yourself and 10 copies for every single person you know! You’ll be doing your part to help the economy, you know.

With that shameless bit of self-promotion out of the way, here are some bits and bytes as I attempt to catch up.

—The Flying Dutchmen lacrosse team was upset by Villanova in the semifinals of the CAA Tournament but earned an at-large bid anyway when the tournament field was revealed Sunday. What, was Tom O’Connor busy this weekend? The Dutchmen will visit Cornell in the first round Saturday. A win there and the Dutchmen will get to play at home the following weekend in the quarterfinals.

—The Flying Dutchwomen softball team will attempt to extend one of the most remarkable streaks in college sports this week when they host the CAA Tournament. The Dutchwomen earned the right to host the tourney by winning the regular season crown, though the manner in which they clinched (their two-game lead entering the final weekend was insurmountable after the three-game series against Delaware was cancelled due to a possible swine flu outbreak at Delaware) was unprecedented.

Hofstra has won 11 straight conference tournaments (four in the America East (1998-2001) and the last seven CAA crowns), the longest streak in the history of Division I softball. The Dutchwomen have won either a regular season or tournament championship in each of the last 19 seasons, dating back to 1992, when “Life Is A Highway” was charging up the charts and this year’s seniors weren’t even in kindergarten. I feel so very, very old.

—Tom Pecora signed a contract extension last month that takes him through 2013-14. Pecora has his critics, but now that we’re nearly two months removed from the end of the season, ask yourself what kind of record you would have expected if you were told in November that every senior would “earn” a DNP-CD except Arminas Urbutis, that Charles Jenkins would go through a nearly month-long shooting slump, that all three JUCO transfers would be relegated to the bench by March, that Nathaniel Lester and Greg Washington, who began the season as little-used reserves, would emerge as the second- and third-best players on the team behind Jenkins and that the Dutchmen would outscore the opposition by a grand total of two points? You would not guess 21-11.

The Dutchmen should have been a .500 team, but instead we ended the season grousing about the school being too good for the CIT. The dude can coach and Hofstra is fortunate he’s locked up for another five seasons, by which point he should be the winningest coach in school history. Can you say “Tom Pecora Court?”

—Along those lines, sort of: Aww crap, Lance Stephenson isn’t going to St. John’s. The only school I worry about when it comes to Pecora is St. John’s. Norm Roberts is 64-85 through five seasons, and a guy can get by for only so long on the fact he is not Mike “I’m not even the most hated man in New York in my own conference anymore” Jarvis. Stephenson was probably Roberts’ best chance to save his job beyond next year, not to mention his best chance to finally earn that elusive NIT bid (heh heh).

My completely uneducated and uninformed guess is that the Johnnies will try to lure Pecora if and when they cut ties with Roberts. And my hunch is that Pecora knows he can still be the coach at Hofstra when Roberts’ replacement is fired.

—If you’re reading this after 12 noon, go check out Hofstra’s new athletics site at GoHofstra.com. I think I speak for everyone when I say: It’s about freaking time, what took you so long? Hofstra had the lamest-looking website in the CAA. Getting a modern-looking website with crazy doohickeys like streaming video is a lot like a company implementing Y2K precautions in 2002, but hey, better late than never.

—Also long overdue: WORKING SCOREBOARDS AT THE STADIUM!!! If I walk into the Stadium this spring or fall and can actually read the score on the scoreboard at the south end zone, it’ll be the finest day since I got a car with a working stereo and air conditioning.

—Your friend and mine Michael Litos has something new going on, too. Check out and bookmark http://caahoops.wordpress.com/, where he will try to get back to his original vision for the CAA blog. I happen to think he was pretty damn good as he was, so I can’t wait to see what he has in store.

—Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but I’m hoping this entry jumpstarts me and gets me back into some sort of routine. I’ve got a bunch of ideas floating around, including a couple interesting story ideas about men’s hoops, and plan to post here several times a week. Also stay tuned this week for an interactive idea that will hopefully provide some content this summer. Thanks again for your patience and see you soon.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com. And join the Defiantly Dutch group at Facebook today!

In which I wish I had Winnie Cooper to explain to me why math and basketball could be an awesome mix

Yes it did. But then again, my tutor was never quite like this.

I always hated math class. Well, not always. I liked it in elementary school, when I was the master of 2+2 and the multiplication tables and division exercises. But then it got unbearably complicated and stupid in junior high school and beyond, when algebra and geometry (I still want to scream at the sight of a protractor) and the rest of that nonsensical garbage began to wreck me and my GPA and nearly derailed my childhood dream of attending Hofstra. (OK, that last part was a lie)

As far as I’m concerned, there is no real-life need for math outside of being able to add, subtract, multiply, divide and to know off the top of my head all the possible winning percentages in a 16-game NFL season (seriously, try me). When have you ever driven down the street, trying to figure out if you have enough money to hit the drive-thru without hitting the bank first, and cursed yourself for not paying more attention in Algebra II? “Damn you (x-3) (x+1)! Damn you!”

Where was I? Oh yeah. All that said, I must admit I occasionally wonder if I might not be an unemployed sportswriter if I only I’d taken to math a little bit better (or if I had Winnie Cooper as a tutor), because over the past decade or so, those who exist several planes higher than me on the IQ scale have figured out a way to turn complicated mathematics into new and useful ways to statistically examine sports.

The website Baseballprospectus.com is outstanding and its annual book is a vital tool in my fantasy baseball preparation (not exactly the most sterling of recommendations, given my lousy track record). The brains behind BP have since added football and basketball sites, the latter of which employs RPI maven Ken Pomeroy. Actually, he no longer compiles RPI rankings, but he continues to break down teams and conferences at his site.

One thing is clear in looking at his analysis of Hofstra and the CAA: Ken is firmly on the Flying Dutchmen bandwagon. He picks the Dutch to finish third in the CAA at 13-5 and 22-7 overall. Pomeroy has VCU and George Mason finishing tied for first at 15-3. That's great news for Mason, because as you know, earning a share of the regular season crown is as good as winning it outright (third question in the link).

You can see Pomeroy’s projections for every CAA team by clicking on the CAA link. You should know, though, that his projections don’t match the predictions that he lists on the right-hand side of the page: He’s predicting only three conference losses for Hofstra (on the road to VCU, Drexel and Mason) and an overall record of 24-5, which would be the Dutchmen’s best ever at the Division I level and the program’s best mark since the 1961-62 team went 24-4. (The Bracket Buster game in February is not included among his projections or predictions)

Even going 15-3 is still only good enough for third in the predictions: According to Pomeroy’s predictions, VCU and Mason will both go 17-1 in conference play. Hofstra is predicted to hand VCU its only loss when the two teams meet in Hempstead while Mason is pegged to fall to VCU.

Pomeroy explains that the difference between projected record and the predicted record “…accounts for the unexpected results that will inevitably happen during the season.” Aha! Another difference between the math geniuses and the rest of us: They build in a margin for error with predictions while we just blindly pick teams one through 12.

Pomeroy doesn’t expect or predict a banner season for the CAA: The top four teams are the only ones projected to finish above .500 and five are projected to lose at least 11 games, with UNC-Wilmington bringing up the rear at 2-16. Ouch. The predictions are even uglier, with a mind-boggling eight teams slotted to finish below .500 in conference play, “led” by UNC-Wilmington at 0-18. I’m not sure, but I think two-thirds of the league finishing under .500 in conference play would ruin any at-large chances.

Pomeroy’s projections/predictions are as follows:

1t.) VCU (15-3 projected, 17-1 predicted)
1t.) George Mason (15-3 projected, 17-1 predicted)
3.) Hofstra (13-5 projected, 15-3 predicted)
4.) Drexel (11-7 projected 14-4 predicted)
5t.) Old Dominion (9-9 projected, 8-10 predicted)
5t.) Georgia State (9-9 projected, 7-11 predicted)
5t.) Northeastern (9-9 projected, 7-11 predicted)
8t.) William & Mary (7-11 projected, 7-11 predicted)
8t.) Delaware (7-11 projected, 6-12 predicted)
8t.) Towson (7-11 projected, 5-13 predicted)
11.) James Madison (6-12 projected, 5-13 predicted)
12.) UNC-Wilmington (2-16 projected, 0-18 predicted)

Pomeroy predicts a lot of long cold winter nights for William & Mary (two four-game losing streaks), Georgia State (a four-game losing streak), James Madison (a four-game losing streak), Towson (a four-game losing streak and a six-game losing streak), Northeastern (a five-game losing streak) and Delaware (an eight-game losing streak).

The projections/predictions by Pomeroy are, uhh, a bit different than the consensus from mid-November:

1.) VCU
2t.) Northeastern
2t.) Old Dominion
4.) George Mason
5.) Delaware
6.) Georgia State
7.) Hofstra
8.) James Madison
9.) UNC-Wilmington
10.) William & Mary
11.) Towson
12.) Drexel

What’s all this prove? Not much, not yet anyway. There’s still a whole lot of basketball to be played and more projections and predictions to be tested. But come March, maybe we’ll all be reminded we should have taken math a bit more seriously in high school.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com.