A guy named Mr. X irresponsibly presenting rumors as facts? The Simpsons did it again.
The halfway point of this CAA season seemingly headed nowhere arrives tonight, when the Flying Dutchmen visit *looks at school name, realize he has to not say the school name dozens of times today* Not Twitter Guy to begin a pivotal road trip that could drop the Dutchmen even further into the quagmire of teams doomed to begin the CAA Tournament on Saturday…or even Friday.
As will hopefully be the routine now that conference play has begun, I ran down the boilerplate material from Saturday’s disappointing loss in Wednesday’s Keep It Perky. Today will be about the individual news and notes from that defeat as well as a preview of the Phoenix. Enjoy!
LET’S STOP GETTING TO THE WORKING OVERTIME PART
The Dutchmen fell to 2-2 in overtime games this season with wins over UMass and Rice as well as losses to Quinnipiac and Campbell. The four overtime games are the most for the Dutchmen since the 2018-19 season, when they were 3-2 in five games decided after regulation. The Dutchmen are 5-5 in overtime games under Speedy Claxton.
DOUBLE DIGITS NOT ENOUGH (again)
The Dutchmen, who led by 18 points late in the first half and by 10 points midway through the second half, squandered a double-digit lead in a loss for the third time this season and the 12th time since Speedy Claxton became head coach for the 2021-22 season. All three blown double-digit leads this season have happened in the last four games, which is the first time the Dutchmen have blown three double-digit leads and lost in the span of four games since at least the 2006-07 season, which is as far back as the play-by-play logs go at the Hofstra website. So we’ve got that going for us! This also marks the first time the Dutchmen have squandered leads of 15 points or more in multiple losses in the same season since at least the 2006-07 campaign. History!
1010101010…LOSES?
The loss Saturday was doubly frustrating for the Flying Dutchmen, who fell despite putting five players in double figures. Starters Jean Aranguren (14 points), Cruz Davis (13 points), Michael Graham (12 points) and German Plotnikov (11 points) all scored at least 10 points along with reserve Khalil Farmer (11 points). It’s the first time five players have scored in double figures in a loss for the Dutchmen since Jan. 7, 2021, when Isaac Kante (19 points), Caleb Burgess
(15 points), Jalen Ray (15 points), Tareq Coburn (13 points) and Kvonn Cramer (10 points) all reached double figures in an 81-78 overtime loss to Northeastern. In a noteworthy twist, the Dutchmen squandered an 19-point lead in that game — their biggest blown lead in a loss since the start of the 2016-17 season. The Dutchmen are now 11-1 under Speedy Claxton when at least five players score in double figures.
WIN PROBABILITY, SCHWIN PROBABILITY
Campbell’s win probability, per KenPom.com, bottomed out at 2.8 percent when the Dutchmen took their biggest lead at 34-16 with 1:50 left in the first half. That’s the least-likely win in the CAA this season, just nipping Towson’s 93-82 win overtime win over Drexel on Jan. 11 in which the Tigers’ win probability bottomed out at 2.9 percent when they trailed 76-70 with one minute left in regulation. It’s also the Dutchmen’s least likely loss since Dec. 31, 2022, when North Carolina A&T had a win probability of 1.7 percent when the Aggies trailed 64-51 with 9:57 left before they earned a buzzer-beating 81-79 win.
ONE POSSESSION OBSESSION
Speaking of that North Carolina A&T loss…the Dutchmen never trailed by more than one possession Saturday, when Campbell took its biggest lead at 62-59 with 4:44 left in overtime. It was the first time the Dutchmen lost a game in which they never trailed by more than one possession since, you guessed it, Dec. 31, 2022, when North Carolina A&T took its biggest lead when the Aggies scored at the buzzer to earn an 81-79 win.
BETTER NEVER THAN LATE
Fun with words! The Dutchmen lost an overtime game in which they didn’t trail in the second half for the first time since Nov. 9, 2021, when then-no. 15 Houston overcame a 13-point second-half deficit, tied the game on a 3-pointer off a turnover with under 25 seconds left and then won 83-75 in overtime in Speedy Claxton’s head coaching debut. This all sounds very familiar except for the head coaching debut part. Anyway.
NOT NICE
The Dutchmen lost to Campbell while allowing exactly 69 points for the second time in as many all-time meetings with the Camels. Campbell earned a 69-68 win on Jan. 13, 2024. So a 69-66 loss is definitely in play for Saturday!
LET’S STAY TOGETHER (STUCK IN THE SIXTIES)
A ‘60s song title about a 60s-related stat! Despite the loss Saturday, the Dutchmen held their opponent under 70 points for the seventh straight game, a span in which they are just 3-4. This is the longest such streak for the Dutchmen since they held opponents under 70 points in eight straight games from Feb. 4 through Mar. 5, 2023, a span in which they went 8-0.
ALMOST HALFWAY WHERE?
With Saturday’s loss, the Dutchmen fell to 3-5 in the CAA and ensured they would reach the halfway point of the CAA schedule with a losing league record for the first time since 2016-17, when they were 2-7 at the halfway point before finishing 7-11. Every other school that’s been in the CAA since at least the 2016-17 season has reached the halfway point of a full league schedule (i.e. discounting the pandemic-wracked 2020-21 season) with an under-.500 league record since then. Yay?
GRAHAM CRACKIN’
Michael Graham continued his rebirth in defeat Saturday afternoon, when he finished with 21 rebounds and 12 points (yes, we usually go points/rebounds, except when we can obviously reference one of the biggest prog rock songs of all-time). The 21 rebounds were the most by a Hofstra player since Feb, 15, 2018, when Rokas Gustys pulled down 21 rebounds in a 90-84 win over William & Mary. Graham also easily broke his previous career-high for rebounds in a single game established Jan. 20, 2022, when he had 17 rebounds in a 77-49 loss to Drexel. The double-double was the fourth of the season for Graham, who had just three double-doubles the previous two seasons at Loyola Marymount. Graham has 72 points on 35-of-55 shooting to go along with 79 rebounds in seven games since he was benched for the second half of the CAA opener against William & Mary on Jan. 2. However, the loss Saturday dropped the Dutchmen to 8-5 this season when Graham plays at least 20 minutes.
GERMAN FOR STARTERS
German Plotnikov, the lone returning player who made a start last season for the Dutchmen, had a solid all-around game Saturday, when he scored 11 points while adding four rebounds, two blocks and a career-high five steals over a career-high 43 minutes. The latter figure easily broke Plotnikov’s previous single-game high of 39 minutes, set in back-to-back games against Northeastern and Charleston from Jan. 4-9. Plotnikov has scored 25 points in his last two games, which ties his career-high for points over a two-game span set against North Carolina A&T and Drexel last Feb. 10-15 and again against Drexel and Northeastern last Feb. 15-17. Plotnikov has started each of the last eight games in which he’s played. He has also scored in each of the last 13 games in which he’s played after scoring just once in the first six games.
FIVE-FINGER DISCOUNT
The good kind of thievery! German Plotnikov’s five steals Saturday were the most by a Hofstra player since last Feb. 22, when Tyler Thomas had five steals in a 69-57 win over Drexel. Plotnikov, who has three steals in the 93-68 win over Delaware last Thursday, has eight steals in his last two games (obvs), the most steals by a Hofstra player in a two-game span since Jaquan Carlos had eight steals against Division III Old Westbury and Delaware from Dec. 22-29, 2022.
JEAN FITS
Jean Aranguren had another solid game Saturday afternoon, when he led the Dutchmen with 14 points on 5-of-9 shooting while adding two rebounds and two assists over 38 minutes. It was the 11th time this season Aranguren has led the Dutchmen in scoring, Aranguren has scored in double figures in 11 straight games and 18 times in 21 games overall after reaching double figures just nine times in 33 games last season with Iona.
FARMER AID
Khalil Farmer may have continued usurping KiJan Robinson as the Dutchmen’s sixth man (You heard me! Usurper!) Saturday afternoon, when he scored 11 points while going 3-of-3 from 3-point land and 2-of-2 from the free throw line. Farmer is the first Hofstra player to enjoy a perfect shooting night from both 3-point land (minimum three attempts) and the free throw line since Tareq Coburn scored 24 points while going 4-of-4 from 3-point land and 4-of-4 from the free throw line in a 72-59 win over Drexel on Jan. 25, 2020. Hey! That was five years ago Saturday! In a quirky bit of quirkiness, Farmer is the first Hofstra player to enjoy a perfect night from beyond the arc while not taking a single shot from inside the arc since at least the 2004-05 season, the first season in which boxscores are available at Stathead. Farmer has 27 points in 95 minutes off the bench over the last three games following his start against UNC Wilmington on Jan. 11. Overall this season, Farmer has played at last 20 minutes eight times in 18 games after reaching the 20-minute mark just three times as a freshman last season.
MESSED AROUND AND NEARLY GOT A QUADRUPLE-DOUBLE
But not the one you’d want! Cruz Davis followed up the best game of his career with the Old Country Buffet (GOOGLE IT CRAIN) of basketball Saturday, when he had 13 points, seven rebounds, seven assists AND seven turnovers before he fouled out over 38 minutes. That’s a lot going on. Davis is the first Hofstra player to finish with at least 13 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and seven turnovers since Charles Jenkins put up a 20 points with eight rebounds, seven assists and nine turnovers in a 73-62 win over Northeastern on Feb, 23, 2010. Davis is also the third Division I player this season to record at least 10 points, five rebounds, five assists and five turnovers in a game in which he fouled out. Quirky!
TJ TO THE EXTREME
TJ Gadsden’s hot-and-cold season turned another notch to the right (sink analogy!) Saturday afternoon, when he had two points and one rebound in 19 minutes. Gadsden had an especially rough final five-plus minutes, when he committed the turnover that led to Jasin Sinani’s game-tying basket with two seconds left. He also failed to close out on Sinani and was draping Colby Duggan when the latter hit the turnaround jumper from the corner to give Campbell the win with one second left in overtime. Gadsden has scored in double figures just twice this season after scoring at least 10 points in 11 of 25 games last season for Canisius.
SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY
Silas Sunday saw limited action Saturday, when he scored two points while adding three rebounds, one block and one steal in 13 minutes. Sunday has scored in 16 of the 21 games in which he’s played this season after scoring 15 times in 32 games last season, though he’s played 12 minutes or fewer in eight of the last nine games after logging more than 12 minutes in nine of the Dutchmen’s first 12 games this season.
WHERE HAVE YOU GONE, MR. ROBINSON?
Same song headline, different vibes! KiJan Robinson may have continued slipping in the rotation Saturday afternoon, when he scored two points in 12 minutes. Robinson has scored five points over 26 minutes in the last three games after averaging 8.1 points and 21 minutes per game over the first 18 games of the season.
DECADY’S CAMEO
Freshman Joshua DeCady played the final 2:26 of the first half Saturday and missed his lone shot, a 3-pointer with 1:37 left. DeCady has played 30 minutes over the last six games in which he’s played since Jan. 2, when he he logged 22 minutes in the 74-56 loss to William & Mary in the CAA opener.
OVER THE AIR
Tonight’s game is slated to be carried live on FloHoops.com (subscription required, click here for options) Hofstra will provide a radio feed as well as live stats at the Pride Productions hub.
SCOUTING NOT TWITTER GUY
The Phoenix, under third-year head coach Billy Taylor, are 14-7 overall and 5-3 in CAA play following a 76-62 loss to Charleston on Saturday night. The loss was the second in the last three games for Not Twitter Guy following a 10-2 stretch from Nov. 30 through Jan. 16.
The Dutchmen and Phoenix had no common opponents in non-league play. In CAA play, both teams have lost to William & Mary and Charleston. Hofstra beat Delaware, which defeated Not Twitter Guy, and fell to Drexel and Campbell, each of whom the Phoenix beat.
The Dutchmen, who were picked to finish fourth in the CAA preseason poll, are ranked 174th at KenPom.com. The Phoenix, who were picked to finish 12th, are ranked 151st, a drop of 15 spots from pregame Saturday but a whopping 146-spot improvement from their preseason ranking. Prior to this season, Not Twitter Guy had not cracked the top 200 at KenPom.com since Mar. 9, 2021, when the Phoenix climbed to no. 198 after beating the Dutchmen in the CAA Tournament semifinals. You’re welcome!
According to KenPom.com, the Dutchmen rank last in the CAA in conference-only offensive efficiency (98.8 points per 100 possessions) and first in defensive efficiency (96.8 points per 100 possessions) while averaging 64.0 possessions per 40 minutes, the 11th-most in the league. The Phoenix rank fourth in the CAA in conference-only offensive efficiency (111.3 points per 100 possessions) and ninth in defensive efficiency (106.9 points per 100 possessions) while averaging 64.9 possessions per 40 minutes, the ninth-most in the league
The Phoenix return nine players from last year’s team. True sophomore Nick Dorn is averaging 15.3 points per game while sophomore TJ Simpkins, who played last season under former Hofstra assistant coach Steve DeMeo at Northwest Florida State College, ranks second on the team with 14.8 points per game and a team-high 3.2 assists per game. True senior Sam Sherry is averaging 14.7 points per game and a team-high 8.0 rebounds per game while true sophomore TK Simpkins, a preseason all-CAA second team selection, is averaging 14.4 points per game and ranks second on the team with 2.4 assists per game. Graduate student Matthew Van Komen, who stands 7-foot-4 and began his career with stints at Utah and Saint Mary’s before playing last season at Division II Hawaii-Pacific, is averaging 7.9 rebounds per game.
KenPom.com predicts a 64-60 loss for the Dutchmen. Per the wise guys in Vegas, for entertainment purposes only, the Dutchmen are 4-point underdogs. The Dutchmen are 9-10 against the spread this season.
ALL-TIME VS. NOT TWITTER GUY
Hofstra is 13-5 against Not Twitter Guy, which joined the CAA prior to the 2014-15 season. The Dutchmen won the lone meeting between the teams last season, when Tyler Thomas scored 25 points and Jacco Fritz (14 points, 10 rebounds) posted a double-double in an 87-64 win at the Arena. This is the third straight season in which Hofstra and Not Twitter Guy oppose each other just once. The only other CAA opponents the Dutchmen have faced just once in each of the last three seasons are UNC Wilmington and North Carolina A&T.
Hofstra and Not Twitter Guy first opposed each other on Nov. 23, 2009, when the Dutchmen cruised past the Phoenix, 70-46, in a preseason NIT game at the Arena.
THINGS YOU CAN SHOUT ON TWITTER (OR BLUESKY) IF CALLS GO DO NOT GO HOFSTRA’S WAY
Seriously it cant be too late for you guys to change your school name bias right? (Self-explanatory)
George Kirby bias! (The Mariners’ budding ace went to Not Twitter Guy)
Steve DeMeo didn’t help us out bias! (As you may have just read, TK Simpkins played for DeMeo at Northwest Florida State College, a junior college, last season)
Mike Schrage might win the national title this year bias! (The former Not Twitter Guy head coach is the special assistant to the head coach at no. 2 Duke)
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