There are few greater truly joyous moments in NCAA Tournament history than Hampton's David Johnson lifting coach Steve Merfeld after the Pirates stunned Iowa State in 2001.
The last New Year’s Eve I had that unspooled that badly involved my date leaving me before midnight. The Flying Dutchmen squandered a 13-point second-half lead and suffered their first buzzer-beating loss in almost exactly six years Saturday afternoon, when Tyrese Elliott’s tip-in a split-second before triple zeroes gave North Carolina A&T a stunning 81-79 win. The Dutchmen will look to begin getting back on track tonight, when they are slated to visit Hampton, another CAA newcomer. Here’s a look back at the loss to the Aggies (feel free to avert your eyes) and a look ahead to the Pirates.
THE MOST RECENT GAME SUMMARIZED IN ONE PARAGRAPH
Aaron Estrada scored eight of his 18 points during a span of 3:27 around the midway point of the second half as the Dutchmen took a 13-point lead, but an inability to finish off North Carolina A&T led to a disappointing loss. The Dutchmen led by at least five points for the first 14 minutes of the second half but allowed North Carolina A&T to score on 10 of its last 11 possessions. The Aggies got within a possession three times before tying the score at 73-73 on Demetric Horton’s 3-pointer with 2:37 left. Warren Williams converted a nostalgic 3-point play on the next trip before Marcus Watson sank a jumper for the Aggies. Darlinstone Dubar answered a with a 3-pointer — the only trey made by anyone other than Tyler Thomas — with 1:32 left to give the Dutchmen a 79-75 lead. Kam Woods responded with a jumper and Estrada turned the ball over on the next trip, leading to Elliott’s game-tying layup. Estrada then missed a jumper and Woods missed a shot before Elliott tipped it in to give the Aggies their first lead in 38 minutes. Not great, Bob! Thomas scored 19 points and was 5-of-10 from 3-point land for the Dutchmen, the rest of whom were 1-of-14 from beyond the arc. Estrada had four rebounds and four turnovers. Dubar finished with 16 points on 7-of-10 shooting, including 6-of-6 from inside the arc, and added seven rebounds. Williams (11 points, eight rebounds) flirted with a double-double while Jaquan Carlos had six assists.
3 STARS OF THE GAME (vs. North Carolina A&T, 12/31)
3: Tyler Thomas
2: Darlinstone Dubar
1: Aaron Estrada
SEASON STANDINGS
Aaron Estrada 28
Darlinstone Dubar 19
Tyler Thomas 17
Jaquan Carlos 9
Amar’e Marshall 6
Warren Williams 5
Nelson Boachie-Yiadom 5
Griffin Barrouk 1
THE FLYING DUTCHMEN AFTER FIFTEEN GAMES
With Saturday’s loss, the Dutchmen fell to 8-7. This ties the 2022-23 team for the 43rd-best record in school history through 14 games. This marks the Dutchmen’s first 8-7 start since 2009-10 and just the sixth 8-7 start in program history. Here is how some notable Hofstra teams have fared through 15 games:
NCAA DIVISION I TOURNAMENT TEAMS
1975-76: 8-7
1976-77: 10-5
1999-2000: 10-5
2000-01: 11-4
2019-20 (IT COUNTS TO US): 11-4 (most recent 11-4 start)
NIT TEAMS
1998-99: 10-5
2004-05: 10-5
2005-06: 12-3
2006-07: 11-4
2015-16: 10-5 (most recent 10-5 start)
2018-19: 12-3 (most recent 12-3 start, win in 15th game marked ninth win in the 16-game winning streak)
NCAA DIVISION II TOURNAMENT TEAMS
1958-59: 10-5
1961-62: 14-1 (most recent 14-1 start)
1962-63: 10-5
1963-64: 12-3
Some other notable 15-game starts:
2021-22: 9-6 (most recent 9-6 start)
2013-14: 4-11 (most recent 4-11 start, Joe Mihalich’s first team)
2011-12: 6-9 (most recent 6-9 start)
2007-08: 3-12 (most recent 3-12 start)
2001-02: 7-8 (most recent 7-8 start)
1995-96: 7-8 (lost buzzer-beater to Northeastern to fall under .500 for good, OH NO)
1994-95: 3-12 (Jay Wright’s first team)
1993-94: 1-14 (VBK’s last team, only 1-14 start in program history)
1973-74: 2-13 (only 2-13 start in program history)
1968-69: 5-10 (only 5-10 start in program history)
1960-61: 13-2 (only 13-2 start in program history)
1959-60: 13-1 (Hofstra’s winningest team, percentage-wise; win in 14th game was third win of season-ending 13-game winning streak)
One season was completed in fewer than 15 games: The 1937-38 team finished 10-4.
Hofstra has never been 15-0 or 0-15 through 15 games.
Full records not available for the following seasons: 1936-37, 1941-42, 1942-43, 1945-46, 1948-49, 1949-50, 1951-52, 1954-55, 1957-58.
This feature is inspired by Greg Prince, who measures how the current Mets compare, record-wise, to previous teams through the same point in the season.
NUMBER TEN THROUGH FORTY-SEVEN
With Saturday’s loss, Speedy Claxton fell to 29-18 (.617) as head coach. That’s the third-best known winning percentage for a Hofstra coach through his first 46 games at the helm.
Paul Lynner 37-10 (.787, 47th game was the 17th game of his second season in 1963-64)
Butch van Breda Kolff I 31-16 (.660, 47th game was the 21st game of his second season in 1956-57)
SPEEDY CLAXTON 29-18 (.617, 47th game was the 15th game of his second season in 2022-23)
Mo Cassara 27-20 (.574, 47th game was the 14th game of his second season in 2011-12)
Dick Berg 23-24 (.489, 47th game was the 20th game of his second season in 1981-82)
Butch van Breda Kolff II 22-25 (.468, 47th game was the 18th game of his second season in 1989-90)
Joe Mihalich 20-27 (.426, 47th game was the 14th game of his second season in 2013-14)
Jay Wright 17-30 (.362, 47th game was the 19th game of his second season in 1995-96)
Tom Pecora 15-32 (.319, 47th game was the 15th game of his second season in 2002-03)
Roger Gaeckler 15-32 (.319, 47th game was the 23rd game of his second season in 1973-74)
The records are incomplete for Jack McDonald’s first stint from 1936 through 1943 as well as the tenures of Jack Smith (1943-46) and Frank Reilly (1947-55).
Three coaches had one-season tenures lasting fewer than 33 games at Hofstra. McDonald went 18-6 in the lone season of his second stint in 1946-47 while Joe Harrington went 14-14 in 1979-80 and Mike Farrelly went 13-10 in 2020-21.
PUTTING A BOW ON 2022
There have been better ways to end a year! But 2022 was another solid year for the Flying Dutchmen, who went 21-12 RUSH BIAS during the calendar year. That’s a winning percentage of .636, which is the lowest compiled by the Dutchmen in a calendar year since 2017 (13-15, .464) but also the 10th-best record compiled by the Dutchmen during the 2000s. Pretty good century so far, all things considered. Here’s the full list led, not surprisingly, by 2000 (Conan O’Brien voice goes here), when the Dutchmen made their first NCAA Tournament in March and began building towards a repeat over the final two months.
2000: 27-6 (.818)
2019: 26-9 (.743)
2006: 26-9 (.743)
2020: 19-7 (.731)
2018: 24-9 (.727)
2001: 23-9 (.719)
2016: 24-11(.686)
2005: 20-10 (.667)
2004: 19-10 (.655)
2022: 21-12 (.636)
2009: 20-13 (.606)
2008: 19-13 (.594)
2015: 20-14 (.588)
2011: 20-14 (.588)
2021: 17-12 (.586)
2010: 18-15 (.545)
2007: 16-14 (.533)
2017: 13-15 (.464)
2014: 15-19 (.441)
2003: 11-19 (.367)
2002: 9-21 (.300)
2012: 7-24 (.292)
2013: 8-24 (.250)
BUZZER BLUES
OK, now to the sour stuff. North Carolina A&T is the first team to beat the Dutchmen at the buzzer since Jan. 2, 2017, when Daniel Dixon (begins twitching) delivered the second dagger of his career by hitting a contested 3-pointer to give William & Mary a 95-93 win in overtime. That was the first loss in a season-turning six-game losing streak for the Dutchmen, who never got back to .500 after the skid and finished 15-17 in their most recent losing season. Let’s not repeat that history!
ONLY THE LAST BUCKET MATTERS
The buzzer-beating tip-in by Tyrese Elliott gave North Carolina A&T its biggest lead of the game. It’s the first time a Hofstra opponent took or matched its biggest lead with its final basket in a one-possession game since Jan. 2, 2010 — oh no, not that date again! — when William & Mary — oh no, not that school again! — took its only lead when Kendrix Brown converted a nostalgic 3-point play with 17 seconds left in a 48-47 win. Halil Kanacevic missed a 3-pointer on the next possession and Nathaniel Lester got hacked but there was no call on the rebound BILL LAWRENCE BIAS. That loss, too, portended at least short-term doom for the Dutchmen, who opened CAA play 2-7 before recovering to finish 10-8. It also portended a car accident for me because two days later, I drove to George Mason and yada yada yada you can read about it here. Possibly related: I’m not going to Hampton tonight.
WIN PROBABILITY, SCHWIN PROBABILITY (part one)
North Carolina A&T’s win probability, per KenPom.com, bottomed out at 1.7 percent when the Dutchmen took their biggest lead at 64-51 with 9:57 left. Through last night, that’s tied for the 17th least-likely win this season and the least-likely win anyone’s recorded in a league game. Great! It’s also the biggest comeback, per win probability, in a CAA game since Jan. 17, 2021, when William & Mary was at 1.3 percent while down 12 with 3:51 left in what ended up being a 69-64 win over Drexel. The Dragons ended up making the NCAA tournament that year, so that’d be a nice bit of repeat history.
WIN PROBABILITY, SCHWIN PROBABILITY (part two)
For the Dutchmen, the loss Saturday marked their least-likely loss, in terms of win probability, since Nov. 19, 2010, when Western Kentucky had a win probability of 1.1 percent down 13 with 4:08 left in what ended up being a 62-60 win in Puerto Rico. Western Kentucky ended that game on a 23-8 run, meaning they scored 37 percent of their points in the final 4:08. And you thought Saturday was bad!
A LOST FIRST IMPRESSION
The Dutchmen’s loss to North Carolina A&T marked their first loss in their first game against a CAA opponent whom they’d never played in league play since — are you kidding me — Jan. 14, 2002, when George Mason earned an 82-68 win in Fairfax. OF COURSE. That said, this comes with a bit of a caveat, as I didn’t count Northeastern’s CAA debut in 2005-06 because the Dutchmen and Huskies were earlier conference-mates in the North Atlantic Conference and the America East. Northeastern beat Hofstra, 89-73, in the first game between the schools as CAA members on Jan. 21, 2006. More on this later!
DOUBLE DIGITS NOT ENOUGH
The Dutchmen squandered a double-digit lead for the second time this season and the fifth time since Speedy Claxton became head coach last season. The 13-point lead is tied for the biggest blown lead in a loss under Claxton. The Dutchmen also led Houston by 13 points in the second half of an 83-75 overtime loss in Claxton’s head coaching debut on Nov. 9, 2021.
MEET THE DUTCH, MEET THE DUTCH
The Dutchmen have trailed for just 63 seconds in their last three games but are just 2-1 in that span. Old Westbury led for 15 seconds in the Dutchmen’s 96-48 win on Dec. 22 and the Dutchmen led wire-to-wire in their 87-73 victory last Thursday before North Carolina A&T led for 48 seconds early in the first half Saturday. Their last lead doesn’t count because, you see, the buzzer went off. Anyway, this reminds me of the 2021-22 Mets, who held at least a share of the NL East for 290 days over the last two seasons and didn’t win the division either time! Does this mean Justin Verlander and Carlos Correa will be playing for the Dutchmen next week?
NO DOUBTING THOMAS
Tyler Thomas scored a team-high 19 points Saturday while going 5-of-10 from 3-point land. It marked the second time this season he’s led the Dutchmen in scoring and the second time he’s hit at least five 3-pointers in a game. Thomas scored 26 points while going 6-of-10 from 3-point land in an 83-78 win over Iona on Nov. 11.
D-STONE DOING WORK
Darlinstone Dubar was particularly effective inside Saturday afternoon, when he went 6-for-6 on his field goal attempts inside the 3-point line. It’s the third time Dubar has been perfect inside the arc (minimum five attempts) for the Dutchmen and the first time since he was also 6-for-6 on 2-point field goal attempts in a 76-73 win over Charleston on Jan. 27, 2022. The last player other than Dubar to have a perfect shooting game inside the 3-point line while taking at least five shots was Kvonn Cramer, who was 6-for-6 inside the arc in a 74-70 loss to James Madison on Feb. 14, 2021.
MR. MID-RANGE AGAIN?
Aaron Estrada ran hot and cold Saturday, when he scored 18 points while going 8-for-12 on his 2-point field goal attempts and 0-for-5 from beyond the arc. It was the fourth time this season Estrada’s gone scoreless from beyond the arc as well as the most 3-point attempts he’s hoisted without a make since he went 0-for-6 in an 81-55 loss to Elon on Feb. 24, 2022.
TEAM MID-RANGE?
The Dutchmen were just 6-of-24 from 3-point land Saturday, The 25% shooting from beyond the arc was the third-lowest of the season, behind the 1-for-16 and 4-for-19 efforts against Saint Mary’s and Middle Tennessee State in consecutive losses Nov. 19-25, while the six made 3-pointers were the fourth fewest behind the aforementioned games as well as a 5-for-18 effort against UNC Greensboro on Nov. 26. Overall under Speedy Claxton, the Dutchmen are 2-7 when making six or fewer 3-pointers in a game.
DIMES FOR CARLOS
Jaquan Carlos scored just two points but continued facilitating Saturday, when he finished with six assists. It was the third straight game in which Carlos had at least six assists. He had a career-high 13 assists against Old Westbury on Dec. 22 and eight assists against Delaware on Dec. 29. Prior to this current stretch, Carlos had just three games with at least six assists in his first 12 games of the season.
WARREN’S NEAR DOUBLE-DOUBLE
Warren Williams, two games removed for his first double-double with the Dutchmen, finished with 11 points and eight rebounds last Saturday, The eight rebounds were a team-high and marked the third time he’s led the Dutchmen in rebounding. In addition to collecting 14 rebounds against Old Westbury on Dec. 22, Williams had six rebounds against George Mason on Nov. 30.
QUIET MARSHALL
Amar’e Marshall’s slump continued Saturday, when he scored four points in six minutes. Marshall, who was limited to one minute against Delaware last Thursday, has scored 25 points in the last five games since his breakout 24-point performance against nationally-ranked Purdue on Dec. 7.
OVER THE AIR
Tonight’s game is slated to be carried live on FloHoops.com (subscription required). Hofstra will provide a radio feed as well as live stats at the Pride Productions hub.
GETTING TO KNOW HAMPTON
Tonight marks the Dutchmen’s second game against one of the four schools — Hampton along with North Carolina A&T, Monmouth and Stony Brook — that joined the CAA on July 1.
Hampton, located in Hampton, VA, was founded as the Hampton Agricultural & Industrial School in 1868, three years after the Civil War, by the American Missionary Association, a biracial partnership that aimed to offer education for former slaves. It has an enrollment of more than 3,500. Among the school’s alums are Booker T. Washington, an 1875 graduate who in 1881 became the founding principal of what is now known as Tuskegee University, as well as Robi Reed, a vice president at BET and an Emmy Award winner for Outstanding Casting, and Christine Darden, a Congressional ;Gold Medal winner and a former “human computer” at NASA.
In sports, Hampton fields six men’s teams and eight women’s teams. The school’s nickname is the Pirates.
Hampton won three national titles at Division II — in men’s tennis in 1976 and 1989 and in women’s basketball in 1988 — before moving to Division I and joining the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference for the 1995-96 academic year. The school moved to the Big South for the 2018-19 academic year.
The men’s basketball team won the MEAC tournament and earned an NCAA Tournament bid six times and recorded one of the biggest upsets in March Madness history on Mar. 15, 2001, when the 15th-seeded Pirates edged second-seeded Iowa State 58-57 to unleash an unforgettably joyous celebration in which head coach Steve Merfeld exulted as he was held aloft from behind by center David Johnson. (That’s also the date of Hofstra’s most recent NCAA Tournament game and the same day Monmouth lost to Duke in Greensboro just hours after the Dutchmen lost to UCLA--the more you know!) Current head coach Edward Joyner Jr. has led Hampton to three NCAA Tournaments and earned an opening round win in 2015, when the Pirates beat Manhattan 74-64.
The Hampton women’s basketball team has made nine NCAA Tournaments. The football team has won the Black national championship seven times, most recently in 2006, and has qualified for the I-AA playoffs five times.
ONE-ON-ONE WITH…
Hampton head coach Edward Joyner Jr., who is in his 14th season as head coach, was kind enough to take a few minutes this week to talk about some background info on Hampton, the challenges of changing leagues for a second time and what the rest of the CAA can expect when facing the Pirates.
How would you describe your favorite spot-on campus to those of us who have never been to Hampton?
I would suggest than anyone who gets the chance to visit “Our Home by the Sea,” a must stop by our famous waterfront section of campus. A lot of people don't realize that our campus is surrounded by water on three sides. It features an area where you can walk along the water or just sit down and relax and watch boats sail bye, it's a very peaceful setting. Next to that is an area we call Legacy Park that features sculptures of individuals that made significant impacts on Hampton's history from our founder Brig. Gen. Samuel Chapman Armstrong to Dr. Martin Luther King Jr, Presidents Obama and Bush to name a few.
What’s a memorable Hampton sporting moment, memory and/or tradition that students (and coaches) become aware of as soon as they arrive on campus?
Hampton has what is an activity hour for students to relax and unwind on Fridays that is known as 12-2. From the hours of 12pm to 2pm all students, athletes included, get a chance to socialize and hang out. We make sure to bring our recruits to the student center on Fridays during that time frame to get a feel for the social aspect of Hampton.
What’s the most challenging part of changing leagues?
It's almost like playing 31 or 32 non-conference games. It's our second time, but you have to get used to players and coach's tendencies, officials, different crowds, different arenas. Just overall there is no familiarity.
What can Hofstra fans expect when they watch Hampton for the first time?
Hopefully get a chance to see a good team. A team that is trying to learn themselves and learn how to compete in the CAA night in and night out. We are similar to them in that we play a four-guard style of basketball and we put up shots.
SCOUTING HAMPTON
The Pirates are 3-11 and 0-2 in the CAA after an 82-65 loss to UNC Wilmington last Saturday.
The Dutchmen and Pirates had no common opponents in non-conference play.
The Dutchmen, who were picked to finish second in the CAA preseason poll, are ranked 134th at KenPom.com. The Aggies, who were picked to finish 13th, are ranked 349th.
According to KenPom.com, the Dutchmen rank second in the CAA in offensive efficiency (107.4 points per 100 possessions) and sixth in defensive efficiency (104.6 points per 100 possessions) while averaging 68.8 possessions per 40 minutes, the fifth-most in the league. The Pirates rank 10th in the CAA in offensive efficiency (96.0 points per 100 possessions) and 13th in defensive efficiency (111.2 points per 100 possessions) while averaging 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes, the second-most in the league.
Sophomore guard Jordan Nesbitt leads the Pirates in both scoring (14.6 points per game) and rebounding (7.6 rebounds per game). Senior guard Russell Dean is averaging 13.5 points per game while senior guard Marquis Godwin, who opened his career at Old Dominion, is averaging 12.6 points per game.
KenPom.com predicts an 81-71 win for the Dutchmen. Didn’t work out like that last time! Per the wise guys in Vegas, for entertainment purposes only, the Dutchmen are 9-point favorites. The Dutchmen are 5-8-1 against the spread this season.
ALL-TIME VS. HAMPTON
This marks the first game between Hofstra and Hampton. It’s the first first game for Hofstra against a new CAA foe since a 75-71 win over Charleston on Jan. 11, 2014. The Dutchmen played Elon and North Carolina A&T once apiece before the Phoenix and Aggies joined the CAA in 2014-15 and *checks notes* 2022-23.
THE DUTCHMEN AGAINST NEW LEAGUE FOES
After Saturday’s loss to North Carolina A&T, the Dutchmen are — depending on how you count Northeastern’s CAA debut — now either 8-11 or 8-12 in their first game against a new league foe in the Defiantly Dutch era (1993-present).
The Dutchmen fell to all three of their one-year-only East Coast Conference foes — Troy State, Chicago State and Northeastern Illinois — in 1993-94. I very likely came up with this stat just to mention the ECC. The Dutchmen were 2-4 in their first games new North Atlantic Conference opponents in 1994-95, with wins over Maine and Boston University and losses to New Hampshire, Northeastern, Vermont and Hartford.
The Dutchmen are now 6-4 in their first games against new league foes in the CAA. The Dutchmen went 3-3 in their first games against the CAA’s old guard in 2001-02 — with wins over Old Dominion, VCU and William & Mary and losses to UNC Wilmington, James Madison and George Mason — before earning wins over new CAA programs Georgia State in 2005-06, Charleston in 2013-14 and Elon in 2014-15 and Saturday’s loss to North Carolina A&T.
HU HU HU OUGHTA KNOW
As Hofstra SID Stephen Gorchov — who gets quirkier the longer he knows me! — notes, the Hofstra-Hampton game pits two of the nation’s four Division I schools that go by “HU.” Who wants an MTE also featuring Howard and Harvard, with the three losing schools forced to change their abbreviations?
THINGS YOU CAN SHOUT ON TWITTER IF CALLS GO DO NOT GO HOFSTRA’S WAY
Bracket buster bias! (Lots of brackets went up in smoke in 2001)
Biff Henderson bias! (The stage manager for David Letterman’s late night TV shows graduated from Hampton)
Mo’ne Davis bias! (The 2014 Little League World Series played softball at Hampton)
Kenrick Ellis bias! (The former Jets draft pick played at Hampton)
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