When you have a chance to join a conference whose logo looks like a hard candy crossed with the computer is crashing kaleidoscope symbol on a Mac, you've got to take it.
(Feels like I’ve been working on this entry for parts of two years)
Apparently William & Mary could contend in the SEC. Eleven days after one of the biggest wins in program history, the Flying Dutchmen absorbed one of their most shocking upsets on Dec. 29, when William & Mary mounted a stunning last-second comeback to earn a 63-62 win. The Dutchmen, whose next three scheduled games were all postponed due to COVID-19 issues within the Elon, UNC Wilmington and Charleston programs, will look to return to the court tonight (pandemic willing) when they are slated to visit James Madison. Here’s a look back at the loss to the Tribe (bleech) and a look ahead to everyone’s favorite exiting CAA member.
THE MOST RECENT GAME SUMMARIZED IN ONE PARAGRAPH
Jalen Ray’s tie-breaking 3-pointer with 31 seconds left seemed to rescue the Dutchmen, but Ben Wight hit a layup before Omar Silverio committed another back-breaking late turnover, which led to the game-winning layup by Julian Lewis with 10 seconds left as William & Mary earned its first win of the season over a Division I opponent. The Dutchmen raced up the court but Aaron Estrada missed a contested short jumper and Abayomi Iyiola couldn’t get a shot off after corralling the rebound. It’s not any better writing about it than it was witnessing it! Estrada single-handedly kept the Dutchmen in the game in the second half, when he scored 17 of his game-high 21 points. Estrada, who was just 1-of-9 from 3-point land, added six rebounds and six steals. Ray had 20 points, five rebounds and three steals while Iyiola finished with five points, 11 rebounds and two steals. Darlinstone Dubar appeared to roll an ankle late in the first half and had just three points in 18 minutes while Zach Cooks, back after missing the previous XX games with a hip injury, was limited to two points in 18 minutes. Silverio had nine points but was 2-of-11 shooting, including 1-of-8 from 3-point land.
3 STARS OF THE GAME (vs. William & Mary, 12/29)
3: Aaron Estrada
2: Jalen Ray
1: Abayomi Iyiola
SEASON STANDINGS
Darlinstone Dubar 20
Aaron Estrada 18
Jalen Ray 16
Zach Cooks 13
Abayomi Iyiola 8
Omar Silverio 5
Kvonn Cramer 4
THE FLYING DUTCHMEN AFTER FOURTEEN GAMES
With the stunning loss Dec. 29, the Dutchmen fell to 8-6, which is tied for the 36th-best start in program history. It’s the second straight time the Dutchmen have opened 8-6 and the 10th time overall in program history. Here is how some notable Hofstra teams have fared through 14 games.
NCAA DIVISION I TOURNAMENT TEAMS
1975-76: 7-7
1976-77: 10-4
1999-2000: 9-5
2000-01: 10-4
2019-20 (IT COUNTS TO US): 10-4 (most recent 10-4 start)
NIT TEAMS
1998-99: 9-5
2004-05: 10-4
2005-06: 11-3
2006-07: 10-4
2015-16: 10-4
2018-19: 11-3 (most recent 11-3 start, win in 14th game marked eighth win in the 16-game winning streak)
NCAA DIVISION II TOURNAMENT TEAMS
1958-59: 10-4
1961-62: 13-1 (most recent 13-1 start)
1962-63: 10-4
1963-64: 12-2 (most recent 12-2 start)
Some other notable 14-game starts:
2016-17: 9-5 (most recent 9-5 start)
2013-14: 4-10 (most recent 4-10 start, Joe Mihalich’s first team)
2012-13: 4-10 (won game no. 14 to snap eight-game losing streak)
2011-12: 6-8 (most recent 6-8 start)
2007-08: 3-11 (most recent 3-11 start)
2002-03: 2-12 (most recent 2-12 start)
1996-97: 5-9 (most recent 5-9 start)
1995-96: 7-7 (most recent 7-7 start, last time at .500)
1994-95: 2-12 (Jay Wright’s first team)
1993-94: 1-13 (VBK’s last team, most recent 1-13 start)
1988-89: 6-8 (win in 14th game was a 48-34 victory over Rider that still stands as the fewest points allowed by Hofstra in the last 33 seasons)
1986-87: 7-7 (last time at .500)
1966-67: 7-7 (last time at .500)
1961-62: 13-1 (most recent 13-1 start)
1959-60: 13-1 (Hofstra’s winningest team, percentage-wise; win in 14th game was third win of season-ending 13-game winning streak)
1937-38: 10-4 (season complete)
Hofstra has never been 14-0 or 0-14 through 14 games.
Full records not available for the following seasons: 1936-37, 1941-42, 1942-43, 1945-46, 1948-49, 1949-50, 1951-52, 1954-55, 1957-58.
This feature is inspired by Greg Prince, who measures how the current Mets compare, record-wise, to previous teams through the same point in the season.
NUMBER TEN THROUGH FOURTEEN
With the loss on Dec. 29, Speedy Claxton fell to 8-6 as head coach. He is the third coach to open 8-6 at Hofstra, following in the footsteps of Joe Harrington in 1979-80 and Mike Farrelly last season. Overall, eight coaches have had winning records through 14 games in their first season (or the first season of their second stints). Jack McDonald steered the Dutchmen to an 11-3 start in the first (and only) season of his second stint while Frank Reilly (1947-48) began 10-4 and Butch van Breda Kolff began 13-1 in his first stint (1955-56). Paul Lynner opened 10-4 in 1962-63.
CLOSELY CONTESTED
The Dutchmen and William & Mary were never separated by more than six points Dec. 29, when the Tribe held a single six-point lead and the Dutchmen had a trio of four-point leads. It marked the first time the Dutchmen played an entire game in which neither team led by more than six points since Dec. 5, 2018, when the Dutchmen edged then-winless Monmouth, 75-73, for the third win in the 16-game winning streak. The Dutchmen’s biggest lead in that game was six points while Monmouth’s biggest lead was two points. Things would be better if the Dec. 29 game ended in similar fashion!
QUITE THE UPSET
By at least one measure, the win Dec. 29 by William & Mary may have been the most stunning CAA upset in more than a decade. The Dutchmen and Tribe were separated by 225 spots — with Hofstra at no. 117 and William & Mary at no. 342 — entering the game.
Since the 2010-11 season — the first season in which game-by-game rankings are displayed for each team at KenPom.com — there appear to be only three instances in which a team ranked 200 or more spots below its opponent won the game. And Hofstra was the losing team twice! Yay? The Flying Dutchmen were ranked 77th at KenPom.com when they fell to no. 285 James Madison 104-99 in overtime on Feb. 23, 2019 and were ranked 68th when they fell to no. 272 UNC Wilmington 87-79 one week earlier. So two of the Dutchmen’s three regular season CAA losses were to teams ranked 200 or more spots below them. The other loss was to Northeastern, which ALSO lost to a team ranked more than 200 spots lower in the KenPom.com rankings that season, when no. 291 Towson beat the no. 95 Huskies 75-72 on Jan, 24, 2019.
The upset by William & Mary was likely the biggest in the CAA since Feb. 4, 2009, when UNC Wilmington beat eventual champion VCU 81-72. UNC Wilmington finished the season ranked no. 305 at KenPom.com while VCU was 54th. OK let’s stop talking about that now.
OH NO THE THREE’S AREN’T FALLING
Alas we’re not completely done talking about that game yet. The Dutchmen shot just 17.6 percent (6-of-34) from 3-point land, their worst percentage in a game in which they took at least 25 shots from beyond the arc since…an 88-61 loss to William & Mary on Jan. 2, 2020, when the Dutchmen shot 16 percent (4-of-25).
In addition, Omar Silverio (1-for-8) and Aaron Estrada (1-for-9) each made just one 3-pointer while taking at least eight attempts. That’s the first time since 2010-11, the first season in which player game logs are available at College Basketball Reference, that two Hofstra players have made one 3-pointer or fewer while taking at least eight shots from beyond the arc.
THE BEST DEFENSE IS A GOOD OFFENSE
The 63 points the Dutchmen allowed in defeat Dec. 29 were the fewest they’ve surrendered in a loss since Dec. 20, 2017, when Manhattan edged Hofstra, 63-61, at Adelphi (really). The Dutchmen last gave up fewer than 63 points in a loss on Jan. 5, 2017, when James Madison earned a 62-54 win at the Arena. The Dutchmen are 4-2 this season when allowing fewer than 70 points, which marks just the second time in the last seven-plus seasons they’ve lost multiple games in which they didn’t allow 70 points. The 2016-17 team was 7-2 when allowing fewer than 70 points, with the losses to James Madison and Towson (69-65 on Feb. 9). Since 2014-15 — Joe Mihalich’s second season at the helm and the real start of the current era of Hofstra basketball —the Dutchmen are 78-10 (a winning percentage of .886) when allowing fewer than 70 points.
COOKS’ STREAK ENDS
Zach Cooks, who missed the previous two games with an injury, scored just two points Dec. 29 as his career-opening (well, at Hofstra, at least) streak of double-digit scoring efforts ended at 11 games. Cooks was just the third player in the last 30 years to begin his Hofstra career by scoring in double figures in at least 11 straight games and the first since 2014-15, when Juan’ya Green scored in double figures in every game on his way to building a 43-game streak and Ameen Tanksley scored in double figures in his first 19 games.
Juan’ya Green 43 games (start of 2014-15 season through Dec. 9, 2015)
Ameen Tanksley 19 games (2014-15 season)
ZACH COOKS 11 games (2021-22 season)
Seth Meyers 8 games (1995-96 season)
Antoine Agudio 7 games (2004-05 season)***
***freshman
Speedy Claxton’s career-opening double-digit scoring streak lasted three games in 1996-97, while the late great Demetrius Dudley’s streak spanned four games in 1991-92.
THE GOOD KIND OF THIEVERY
Aaron Estrada had six steals Dec. 29, the most by a Hofstra player in a game since Desure Buie had six steals against Towson on Jan. 26, 2019. No Dutchmen has recorded more than six steals in a game since Feb. 16, 2013, when Stevie Mejia had seven steals against Towson.
OVER THE AIR
If today’s game is played, it will be carried live on FloHoops.com (subscription required). Hofstra will provide a radio feed as well as live stats at the Pride Productions hub.
SECOND TIME, BETTER THAN THE FIRST?
The Dutchmen are looking to avoid their first 0-2 start in CAA play since 2011-12, when they opened 0-7. Every other CAA school has started 0-2 at least once since the Dutchmen last did so, In fact. the only other CAA school without an 0-2 start in league play over the last six years is Charleston, which last began 0-2 in 2014-15.
BACK FROM PAUSE (HOPEFULLY)
Remember when we were all naive enough to think pandemic-interrupted seasons were a thing of the past? Simpler times. Anyway, if today’s game is played, it will mark the first time the Dutchmen have taken the court since Dec. 29, a pause of 10 days, and the first time James Madison has played since Dec. 11, a pause of 28 days. The Dutchmen were 2-0 last season when resuming play after a pause of 10 days or more while the Dukes were 0-3 when playing after being idle for at least 10 days.
SCOUTING JAMES MADISON
The Dukes, entering their final season in the CAA — the divorce isn’t a friendly one! — under second-year head coach Mark Byington, are 9-2 this season but, as noted earlier, haven’t played since Dec. 11, when they beat Radford 79-70. James Madison is the only CAA team that has yet to play a league game.
The Dutchmen and Dukes had no common opponents in non-league play.
The Dutchmen, who were picked to finish fourth in the CAA preseason poll, are ranked 126th at KenPom.com. The Dukes, who were picked to finish fifth, are ranked 160th.
According to KenPom.com. the Dutchmen rank second in the CAA in offensive efficiency (108.5) and sixth in defensive efficiency (104.7). The Dukes rank seventh in offensive efficiency (101.0) and first in defensive efficiency (101.0). Does that mean this game might end up in a tie?
Guard Takal Molson, a graduate transfer from Seton Hall who was an honorable mention preseason all-CAA selection leads the Dukes with 11.2 points per game and ranks third in rebounding at 5.3 rebounds per game. Junior guard Vado Morse, who was named to the preseason all-CAA second team, ranks second with 10.6 points per game while graduate student guard Charles Falden, a transfer from Winthrop, is averaging 10.2 points per game. Graduate student forward Alonzo Sule, a transfer from Texas State, leads the Dukes in rebounding at 6.3 rebounds per game while redshirt freshman Justin Amadi is averaging 5.4 rebounds per game.
KenPom.com predicts a 76-75 loss for the Dutchmen (oh no, not another one-point loss). Per the wise guys in Vegas, for entertainment purposes only, the Dutchmen are 1-point underdogs. The Dutchmen are 7-5 against the spread this season.
ALL-TIME VS. JAMES MADISON
Hofstra is 22-15 against James Madison in a series that began when the Dutchmen joined the CAA prior to the 2001-02 season. The Dutchmen were swept last season, when the series consisted of back-to-back games at James Madison due to the pandemic. The Dukes overcame a 12-point deficit to earn a 93-89 victory on Feb. 13 before fending the Dutchmen’s attempted comeback from a 12-point deficit to escape with a 74-70 win the next day. The latter game ended up being the regular season finale for the Dutchmen, who went into a COVID-19 pause later in the week and didn’t play until the CAA Tournament three weeks later.
The sweep was the first for James Madison against the Dutchmen since the 2015-16 campaign.
THINGS YOU CAN SHOUT ON TWITTER IF CALLS GO DO NOT GO HOFSTRA’S WAY
Sun Belt bias! (James Madison is headed to the Sun Belt, and boy are they ever happy about it)
Now you no longer play I-AA football either bias! (You might have heard but James Madison is going to play I-A football starting nest year)
Your new conference makes no geographic sense bias! (Virginia’s not in the sun belt but *shrugging emoji*)
Who are we kidding you’re not getting any calls to go your way bias! (Heh)
No comments:
Post a Comment