Just The Facts: Hot Second Halves & The CAA Tournament

I never saw an episode of the original Dragnet and the movie was one of about three films released in 1987 that I've never seen, but that's not stopping me from making a Joe Friday reference!

For those of us who find digging into media guides and perusing online databases such as the new Sports-Reference.com college basketball site (the college hoops version of the greatest site ever, Baseball-Reference.com) the most fun we can have with our pants on, CAA Tournament week is a positively Sting-like experience. There’s so much to do and so much information to mine that it takes an almost superhuman willpower to make it all the way through!

Now that I’ve sufficiently disgusted you, welcome to the first of who knows many installments of Just The Facts. I’ll eschew the usual witty and rambling prose and present to you the raw data on a tournament topic relevant to the Flying Dutchmen.

Today we look at the previous CAA teams to do what the Dutchmen did this year: Lose one game or less (that would be none) in the second half of the conference schedule while winning at least nine of their final 10 regular season games. The Dutchmen are the 18th team to do this, and the third Hofstra squad, following in the footsteps of the 2004-05 and 2005-06 clubs.

History suggests the Dutchmen will win at least one game this weekend: Discounting the 2000-01 Richmond team that was ineligible to participate in the CAA tournament in its final year in the league, only one of the previous 17 teams lost in the first round of the tourney (Old Dominion to the Cinderella East Carolina squad in 1993).

Seven of the teams won the conference tournament and another three lost in the title game. Every team except ODU in 1993 got as far as the semifinals. Two of the teams to fall in the semis—Mason in 2006, if you squint enough you can see me twitching from wherever you are, and ODU in 2007—received at-large bids to the NCAA Tournament.

Anyway, don’t get me going on that. Here you go, have fun! More Just The Facts to come later today or tomorrow.

William & Mary 1982-83: Went 5-0 in second half of CAA season and 9-1 in final 10 games, lost to James Madison in title game

Navy 1985-86: Went 7-0 in second half of CAA season and 10-0 in final 10 games, won tournament and reached the Elite Eight

Navy 1986-87: Went 7-0 in second half of CAA season and 10-0 in final 10 games, won tournament

Richmond 1988-89: Went 6-1 in second half of CAA season and 9-1 in final 10 games, lost to UNCW in semifinals

George Mason 1988-89: Went 6-1 in second half of CAA season and 9-1 in final 10 games, won tournament

Richmond 1990-91: Went 6-1 in second half of CAA season and 9-1 in final 10 games, won tournament and reached Round of 32

Old Dominion 1992-93: Went 6-1 in second half of CAA season and 9-1 in final 10 games, lost to East Carolina in first round

VCU 1995-96: Went 7-1 in second half of CAA season and 9-1 in final 10 games, won tournament

UNCW 1997-98: Went 7-1 in second half and 9-1 in final 10 games, lost to Richmond in title game

Richmond 2000-01: Went 7-1 in second half and 9-1 in final 10 games, ineligible for CAA tournament in final season in conference

UNCW 2002-03: Went 8-1 in second half and 9-1 in final 10 games, won title

Hofstra 2004-05: Went 8-1 in second half and 9-1 in final 10 games, lost to ODU in semifinals

Hofstra 2005-06: Went 8-1 in second half and 9-1 in final 10 games, lost to UNCW in title game

UNCW 2005-06: Went 8-1 in second half and 9-1 in final 10 games, won title game

George Mason 2005-06: Went 8-1 in second half and 9-1 in final 10 games, lost to Hofstra in semis, made NCAA Tournament anyway thanks to friends in low places and reached the Final Four (DAMNIT!!!!)

Old Dominion 2006-07: Went 9-0 in second half and 10-0 in final 10 games, lost to Mason in semis, received at-large bid to NCAA Tournament and lost in first round

Old Dominion 2008-09: Went 8-1 in second half and 9-1 in final 10 games, lost to VCU in semis

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

Projecting the perfect 10 and searching for the imperfect five

Sorry, but if you read the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue for the articles in the late 1980s, Kathy Ireland is the perfect 10, not Bo Derek.

Absent in Wednesday’s post—i.e. lost in the aftermath of the wild ECC championship celebration Tuesday night—was the news I posted on Twitter before the party began: The Flying Dutchmen, by virtue of their win over Delaware and VCU’s win over Drexel, are locked into the seventh seed for the upcoming CAA Tournament. My guess is nobody’s ever clinched such a middle-of-the-road seed with two games to play, but even I’m not that warped to go and spend hours confirming it. I think.

Anyway, it is officially time to look ahead 15 days and to the Dutchmen’s potential opening round opponent (which, at this moment, would be Towson). So while everyone else is pondering six for four, we’ll begin breaking down five for 10. Below you’ll find a list of the teams fighting for the eighth through 12th seeds as well as their remaining schedules and how any current ties are broken.

8.) Georgia State (5-11): ODU, @Hofstra.

9.) UNC Wilmington (4-12): @Drexel, W&M. Seahawks the nine seed at the moment by virtue of 2-1 record vs. JMU and Towson.

10.) Towson (4-12): @W&M, Delaware. Tigers the 10 seed at the moment by virtue of 2-2 record vs. JMU and UNCW.

11.) James Madison (4-12): @VCU, Drexel. Dukes the 11 seed at the moment by virtue of 1-2 record vs. UNCW and Towson.

12.) Delaware (3-13): GMU, @Towson.

It’s crazy to try and predict how eight thru 12 will shake out, but if I had to guess I’d  bet that Towson splits its final two games to move out of 10th and that the Dutchmen play either UNC Wilmington or James Madison in the opening round. (Though skidding Drexel at James Madison in the finale screams potential upset) If those two teams tie at 4-14, UNC Wilmington would be the 10th seed by virtue of its head-to-head win over the Dukes.

As for the identity of the two seed, it’ll almost certainly the matchup we didn’t want against Northeastern or Old Dominion after our hopes for a quarterfinal rematch with George Mason all but disappeared when the suspension-wracked (snicker snicker snort snort) Patriots fell to William & Mary Tuesday.

William & Mary and Mason are tied for third, two games back of co-leaders Northeastern and Old Dominion, so one win apiece by the Huskies and Monarchs will cement for them a top-two seed. If the two teams finish the season tied, Northeastern is the one seed by virtue of its head-to-head win over Old Dominion.

***

I may not be warped enough to figure out if the Dutchmen are the first team to clinch the seven seed with multiple games left in the schedule, but I’m not going to lie to you: Spending a few overnight hours surfing bbstate.com to find out the last time anyone in the CAA or America East reached .500 after falling at least five games below the break-even mark was more fun than anything else I could have done with my pants on. Wait, did I just type that?

If only there was a use for these skills and this information outside of my living room, I’d be king of the freakin’ world. Anyway, the research was fun and still left my question unanswered: At no point since 1993-94 (the official start of the Defiantly Dutch Era) has a team in a conference that Hofstra has occupied in that span ever climbed back to .500 after being as many as five games under. Whoohoo, more late-night digging to come!

The Flying Dutchmen appear to be in unchartered territory a little closer to home as well. The only Hofstra team to come back from four games under .500 to reach .500 in conference play was the 1988-89 team, which opened ECC play with a 2-6 mark but finished 7-7 and took eventual champion Bucknell to overtime in the tournament semifinals.

As for the CAA and America East, here is the raw data I found—the list of teams that were three and four games under .500 in the CAA or America East since 1993-94 who managed to reach .500 at some point. With the America East, I was originally going to go back to only 1994-95—Hofstra’s first year in what was then known as the NAC—but I was surprised nobody in the CAA had come back from five games under .500 so I figured I’d play it out to today with the Dutchmen’s former conference as well.

Overall, a CAA team has gone from as many as three games under .500 to .500 just six times since 1993-94. Half of those happened during the wild, parity-heavy 1996-97 season, when Old Dominion and UNC Wilmington tied for first at 10-6 and the next six teams finished within three games of the co-leaders.

It has happened more often in the America East, where nine teams have gone from at least three under .500 to .500, including eight since Hofstra and Co. left the conference after the 2000-01 season. Four America East teams have moved from four games under .500 to .500.

One red flag: None of the teams listed below won their conference tournament and NCAA Tournament berth. But none of them came back from five under .500 to get to .500, either!

CAA teams that moved from four games under .500 to .500

Old Dominion 1999-2000 (opened 1-5, improved to 5-5, finished 6-10)

American 1996-97 (opened 0-4, improved to 5-5, finished 7-9)

CAA teams that moved from three games under .500 to .500

VCU 1998-99 (opened 2-5, improved to 7-6, finished 8-8)

VCU 1996-97 (opened 2-5, improved to 8-5, finished 9-7)

William & Mary 1996-97 (opened 3-6, improved to 8-6, finished 8-8)

American 1994-95 (opened 1-4 and 4-7, finished 7-7)

America East teams that moved from four games under .500 to .500

Maine 2006-07 (opened 0-4, improved to 5-4 and 6-5, finished 7-9)

Hartford 2003-04 (opened 0-4, improved to 4-4, finished 6-12)

Stony Brook 2002-03 (opened 0-4, improved to 5-4 and 6-5, finished 7-9)

America East teams that moved from three games under .500 to .500

Vermont 1999-2000 (opened 2-5, improved to 5-5 and 10-6, finished 11-7)

New Hampshire 2008-09 (opened 4-7, finished 8-8)

Stony Brook 2008-09 (opened 1-4, improved to 8-7, finished 8-8)

Boston University 2007-08 (opened 2-5, finished 9-7)

New Hampshire 2005-06 (opened 0-3, improved to 6-5, finished 8-8)

Northeastern 2002-03 (opened 0-3 and 1-4, improved to 7-6, finished 8-8) 

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.