The Dutchmen's quest for the imperfect 10

Now that I have your attention! (As I noted two years ago, if you are of a certain age, Kathy Ireland is the 10 in your life.)

It’s the most wonderful time of the year, when sports geeks like me get to sit down and crunch numbers and figure out all sorts of wild and wooly CAA tiebreakers. This year’s that time of the year features more permutations than last year’s that time of the year, but I’d rather spend less time trying to figure out how the Dutchmen could finish second through fourth than more time on computing the odds of finishing anywhere from ninth through 12th place.

But them’s the breaks, so here’s a quick look at where the Dutchmen stand regarding potential first- and second-round matchups (yes, we’re optimists) entering tonight’s BATTLE FOR 10TH PLACE against the College of Bill Lawrence.

While the Dutchmen can technically finish ninth or 12th, each scenario requires a series of very unlikely longshots coming to fruition. But my middle name is thorough (actually, it’s not), so we’ll get to those in a bit, after going over the most likely possibilities for the Dutchmen—finishing 10th or 11th.

—The Dutchmen (2-14 in CAA play) will finish 10th with a win over William & Mary (3-13) tonight coupled with either a Dutchmen win over UNC Wilmington Saturday or a William & Mary loss to Georgia State. Obviously whomever wins tonight has the tiebreaker, since this is the lone game of the season between the Dutchmen and Fighting Lawrences (hooray unbalanced schedule!)

Finishing 10th would almost certainly mean a first-round game against Northeastern, whose slim chances of finishing sixth require beating George Mason tonight and Delaware losing to Towson. The Huskies (8-8 in CAA play) swept the Dutchmen this season but are skidding lately (1-5 overall since beating Hofstra Jan. 28) and present a better matchup for the Dutchmen than any potential opponents in an 11 vs. 6 game.

Should the Dutchmen beat Northeastern in the first game of the Friday afternoon session, they’d face the second seed in the quarterfinals. Drexel, VCU and George Mason are all in the running for that spot, with the Rams and Patriots (in that order) most likely to finish second. We’ll get to the permutations later in the week if it is required, but I think everyone would rather avoid VCU as long as necessary, both because the Rams wrecked Havoc with the Dutchmen this year and because you never ever ever ever ever want to go 5-on-8 against VCU in Richmond.

—A loss tonight will ensure the Dutchmen can finish no higher than 11th. And the Dutchmen will “clinch” 11th tonight if they lose and Towson loses to Delaware. The Dutchmen could also finish 11th if they win tonight, lose to UNC Wilmington Saturday and William & Mary beats Georgia State in its finale.

The matchup scenarios for an 11 vs. 6 game are murkier with Old Dominion (12-4), Delaware (10-6) and Georgia State (10-6) all in contention for that spot. Georgia State is currently sixth, by virtue of being swept by Delaware, and will be locked into sixth if it loses at home to Old Dominion tonight and Delaware beats Towson. A Dutchmen-Panthers first-round game would be a nightmarish one for the Dutchmen, who were never really in a 59-43 loss to Georgia State Feb. 4.

But the Panthers will have plenty of motivation as they pursue their 20th win on Senior Night this evening, and a victory would put the wheels in motion for a three-way tie at 12-6 tie that would drop Old Dominion into the six spot. Old Dominion finishes by hosting red-hot Drexel, Delaware hosts Northeastern and Georgia State visits William & Mary. In a three-way tie, Delaware would be the no. 4 seed by virtue of going 2-1 against Old Dominion and Georgia State (hooray unbalanced schedule!) while Georgia State would be fifth by virtue of beating the Monarchs (hooray unbalanced schedule!). Of course, facing a Blaine Taylor-coached team furious about ending the school’s streak of never playing on Friday won’t be much fun either. Delaware could also finish sixth, but the Blue Hens will assure themselves no worse than a fifth-place finish by beating Towson tonight.

—As for the longshot scenarios involving Hofstra’s seeding: The Dutchmen could finish ninth, and face eighth-seeded UNC Wilmington in the first game of the tournament, if they win out, James Madison loses out against Drexel and Towson and William & Mary beats Georgia State.

Towson missed a last-second chance to tie or win the game in a two-point loss to James Madison Dec. 11 and could very well beat the injury-wracked Dukes, whose head coach, Matt Brady, blew out his Achilles practicing with the team last week. But it’s hard to see William & Mary losing tonight and then beating Georgia State. Plus, let’s face it, even if James Madison loses out and the Tribe knock off the Panthers, the Dutchmen would also have to win as many CAA games in the final four days of the regular season as they won in the first 81. We’re optimistic here, but the odds aren’t in favor of that happening.

—The real longshot is the Dutchmen falling all the way to 12th, which happens only if they lose out and Towson (1-15) sweeps Delaware and James Madison. Hofstra wins any tie with the Tigers thanks to the Dutchmen’s win on Feb. 1 (hooray unbalanced schedule!). The Dutchmen could certainly lose their final two games, but it’s tough to see Towson winning its last two, especially with a roadie at scorching Delaware tonight.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

Projecting the perfect 10 and searching for the imperfect five

Sorry, but if you read the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue for the articles in the late 1980s, Kathy Ireland is the perfect 10, not Bo Derek.

Absent in Wednesday’s post—i.e. lost in the aftermath of the wild ECC championship celebration Tuesday night—was the news I posted on Twitter before the party began: The Flying Dutchmen, by virtue of their win over Delaware and VCU’s win over Drexel, are locked into the seventh seed for the upcoming CAA Tournament. My guess is nobody’s ever clinched such a middle-of-the-road seed with two games to play, but even I’m not that warped to go and spend hours confirming it. I think.

Anyway, it is officially time to look ahead 15 days and to the Dutchmen’s potential opening round opponent (which, at this moment, would be Towson). So while everyone else is pondering six for four, we’ll begin breaking down five for 10. Below you’ll find a list of the teams fighting for the eighth through 12th seeds as well as their remaining schedules and how any current ties are broken.

8.) Georgia State (5-11): ODU, @Hofstra.

9.) UNC Wilmington (4-12): @Drexel, W&M. Seahawks the nine seed at the moment by virtue of 2-1 record vs. JMU and Towson.

10.) Towson (4-12): @W&M, Delaware. Tigers the 10 seed at the moment by virtue of 2-2 record vs. JMU and UNCW.

11.) James Madison (4-12): @VCU, Drexel. Dukes the 11 seed at the moment by virtue of 1-2 record vs. UNCW and Towson.

12.) Delaware (3-13): GMU, @Towson.

It’s crazy to try and predict how eight thru 12 will shake out, but if I had to guess I’d  bet that Towson splits its final two games to move out of 10th and that the Dutchmen play either UNC Wilmington or James Madison in the opening round. (Though skidding Drexel at James Madison in the finale screams potential upset) If those two teams tie at 4-14, UNC Wilmington would be the 10th seed by virtue of its head-to-head win over the Dukes.

As for the identity of the two seed, it’ll almost certainly the matchup we didn’t want against Northeastern or Old Dominion after our hopes for a quarterfinal rematch with George Mason all but disappeared when the suspension-wracked (snicker snicker snort snort) Patriots fell to William & Mary Tuesday.

William & Mary and Mason are tied for third, two games back of co-leaders Northeastern and Old Dominion, so one win apiece by the Huskies and Monarchs will cement for them a top-two seed. If the two teams finish the season tied, Northeastern is the one seed by virtue of its head-to-head win over Old Dominion.

***

I may not be warped enough to figure out if the Dutchmen are the first team to clinch the seven seed with multiple games left in the schedule, but I’m not going to lie to you: Spending a few overnight hours surfing bbstate.com to find out the last time anyone in the CAA or America East reached .500 after falling at least five games below the break-even mark was more fun than anything else I could have done with my pants on. Wait, did I just type that?

If only there was a use for these skills and this information outside of my living room, I’d be king of the freakin’ world. Anyway, the research was fun and still left my question unanswered: At no point since 1993-94 (the official start of the Defiantly Dutch Era) has a team in a conference that Hofstra has occupied in that span ever climbed back to .500 after being as many as five games under. Whoohoo, more late-night digging to come!

The Flying Dutchmen appear to be in unchartered territory a little closer to home as well. The only Hofstra team to come back from four games under .500 to reach .500 in conference play was the 1988-89 team, which opened ECC play with a 2-6 mark but finished 7-7 and took eventual champion Bucknell to overtime in the tournament semifinals.

As for the CAA and America East, here is the raw data I found—the list of teams that were three and four games under .500 in the CAA or America East since 1993-94 who managed to reach .500 at some point. With the America East, I was originally going to go back to only 1994-95—Hofstra’s first year in what was then known as the NAC—but I was surprised nobody in the CAA had come back from five games under .500 so I figured I’d play it out to today with the Dutchmen’s former conference as well.

Overall, a CAA team has gone from as many as three games under .500 to .500 just six times since 1993-94. Half of those happened during the wild, parity-heavy 1996-97 season, when Old Dominion and UNC Wilmington tied for first at 10-6 and the next six teams finished within three games of the co-leaders.

It has happened more often in the America East, where nine teams have gone from at least three under .500 to .500, including eight since Hofstra and Co. left the conference after the 2000-01 season. Four America East teams have moved from four games under .500 to .500.

One red flag: None of the teams listed below won their conference tournament and NCAA Tournament berth. But none of them came back from five under .500 to get to .500, either!

CAA teams that moved from four games under .500 to .500

Old Dominion 1999-2000 (opened 1-5, improved to 5-5, finished 6-10)

American 1996-97 (opened 0-4, improved to 5-5, finished 7-9)

CAA teams that moved from three games under .500 to .500

VCU 1998-99 (opened 2-5, improved to 7-6, finished 8-8)

VCU 1996-97 (opened 2-5, improved to 8-5, finished 9-7)

William & Mary 1996-97 (opened 3-6, improved to 8-6, finished 8-8)

American 1994-95 (opened 1-4 and 4-7, finished 7-7)

America East teams that moved from four games under .500 to .500

Maine 2006-07 (opened 0-4, improved to 5-4 and 6-5, finished 7-9)

Hartford 2003-04 (opened 0-4, improved to 4-4, finished 6-12)

Stony Brook 2002-03 (opened 0-4, improved to 5-4 and 6-5, finished 7-9)

America East teams that moved from three games under .500 to .500

Vermont 1999-2000 (opened 2-5, improved to 5-5 and 10-6, finished 11-7)

New Hampshire 2008-09 (opened 4-7, finished 8-8)

Stony Brook 2008-09 (opened 1-4, improved to 8-7, finished 8-8)

Boston University 2007-08 (opened 2-5, finished 9-7)

New Hampshire 2005-06 (opened 0-3, improved to 6-5, finished 8-8)

Northeastern 2002-03 (opened 0-3 and 1-4, improved to 7-6, finished 8-8) 

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.