The imperfect five vying for the perfect 10: The Sequel

Those of us who remember Stephanie Seymour's debut in the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue know that a.) that was no swimsuit and b.) her career did not peak with her turn as Axl Rose's doomed lover in the "November Rain" video.

Been a hectic day here, so just a quick look at the schedule tonight for the potential 10 and two seeds before I borrow a page from Litos’ book and link you to really good stuff other people wrote.

First the 10 seeds, because we want to stay on the good side of basketball karma and not look too far ahead (who the hell am I kidding, I’m trying to figure out how the wife and I can be in Richmond 12 days from now for the championship game). My guess is eight through 12 will look exactly the same in the morning as it does tonight, but here’s the rundown for those of you who are crazy like me and hoping to spend all night hitting refresh on the CAA scoreboard.

8.) Georgia State (5-12): OFF

9.) UNC Wilmington (4-12): @Drexel. UNCW beat reporter Brian Mull reports Chad Tomko, John Fields and Montez Downey won’t be available tonight against the Dragons, so if you are reasonably athletic, still possessing some collegiate eligibility, can swing 12 credits at UNCW and are in the Philadelphia area, get to the DAC now, poor interim coach Brooks Lee can use you.

10.) Towson (4-12): @W&M. Two schools nursing wounds from a Bracket Buster MAAC attack. Can’t see William & Mary, with a legit shot at the two seed (more on that in a moment), letting this one slip away.

11.) James Madison (4-12): @VCU. Root for the Rams, James Madison is the scariest of the potential 10s (he says, thereby giving everyone else bulletin board fodder).

12.) Delaware (3-13): GMU. Root for the Blue Hens just for the hell of it. Hi Mason Nation!

As for the race for the top two seeds, the Flying Dutchmen really helped out William & Mary as well as Old Dominion last night. ODU, obviously, is the one seed if the Monarchs beat visiting VCU Saturday or if Northeastern loses at George Mason earlier in the day.

And William & Mary’s path to the two seed opened up last night as well. The Tribe, with the easiest remaining schedule of the three teams contending for the two, will be the second seed if it sweeps Towson and UNC Wilmington and Northeastern loses. William & Mary wins the tiebreaker via its one-point head-to-head win over the Huskies. As for Mason, the Patriots can’t finish any higher than third because they lose the tiebreaker to Northeastern at 13-5 (Northeastern went 1-0 against Old Dominion while Mason went 1-1).

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Some good stuff for you to read while surfing for scores tonight:

—Litos has a tremendous piece at College Chalktalk about Bill Coen’s remarkable rebuilding job at Northeastern. Some great quotes and some great color about a bunch of overlooked players coming together and gelling under a guy who used to write software for strategic missile defense systems. Nobody’s lacking for proper perspective at Matthews Arena.

Said it on Twitter last night and I’ll say it again: Northeastern is incredibly easy to root for and there’s a pretty big part of me that feels bad Matt Janning and Co. lost on their Senior Night. I hope Hofstra doesn’t see those guys again until the title game (damnit, there I go again, looking ahead).

—Meant to post this Monday but forgot to do so: Jack Styczynski, the original Hofstra blogger, put the world’s most indestructible tape recorder to good use Saturday in profiling Charles Jenkins and Rider star Ryan Thompson for the New York Times’ “Quad Blog.” Thanks to Jack for linking to my preseason feature on Jenkins, and while it was good to finally meet him Saturday, I may kick him in the shins if he tempts fate by showing up to the Georgia State game or in Richmond (inside joke, I’m not really going to kick the guy).

—Mull wonders if there will be a better seventh seed in any mid-major conference tournament than the Dutchmen. Forget what others say about you, Brian, you’ll always be OK by me!

—Finally, Patrick Stevens, who was among those who lost their jobs when the Washington Times made the AWESOME decision to kill its sports section, has been all over the mid-Atlantic college sports scene since his layoff (note to Patrick: If you say anything bad about George Mason, the knuckle-dragging faction of Mason Nation will declare you deserve to be out of work). He has five thoughts on the CAA today, the second of which is that nobody should want to play the Flying Dutchmen in the tournament next weekend. You’ll always be OK by me, Patrick! Check him out at Twitter at @D1scourse.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

Projecting the perfect 10 and searching for the imperfect five

Sorry, but if you read the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue for the articles in the late 1980s, Kathy Ireland is the perfect 10, not Bo Derek.

Absent in Wednesday’s post—i.e. lost in the aftermath of the wild ECC championship celebration Tuesday night—was the news I posted on Twitter before the party began: The Flying Dutchmen, by virtue of their win over Delaware and VCU’s win over Drexel, are locked into the seventh seed for the upcoming CAA Tournament. My guess is nobody’s ever clinched such a middle-of-the-road seed with two games to play, but even I’m not that warped to go and spend hours confirming it. I think.

Anyway, it is officially time to look ahead 15 days and to the Dutchmen’s potential opening round opponent (which, at this moment, would be Towson). So while everyone else is pondering six for four, we’ll begin breaking down five for 10. Below you’ll find a list of the teams fighting for the eighth through 12th seeds as well as their remaining schedules and how any current ties are broken.

8.) Georgia State (5-11): ODU, @Hofstra.

9.) UNC Wilmington (4-12): @Drexel, W&M. Seahawks the nine seed at the moment by virtue of 2-1 record vs. JMU and Towson.

10.) Towson (4-12): @W&M, Delaware. Tigers the 10 seed at the moment by virtue of 2-2 record vs. JMU and UNCW.

11.) James Madison (4-12): @VCU, Drexel. Dukes the 11 seed at the moment by virtue of 1-2 record vs. UNCW and Towson.

12.) Delaware (3-13): GMU, @Towson.

It’s crazy to try and predict how eight thru 12 will shake out, but if I had to guess I’d  bet that Towson splits its final two games to move out of 10th and that the Dutchmen play either UNC Wilmington or James Madison in the opening round. (Though skidding Drexel at James Madison in the finale screams potential upset) If those two teams tie at 4-14, UNC Wilmington would be the 10th seed by virtue of its head-to-head win over the Dukes.

As for the identity of the two seed, it’ll almost certainly the matchup we didn’t want against Northeastern or Old Dominion after our hopes for a quarterfinal rematch with George Mason all but disappeared when the suspension-wracked (snicker snicker snort snort) Patriots fell to William & Mary Tuesday.

William & Mary and Mason are tied for third, two games back of co-leaders Northeastern and Old Dominion, so one win apiece by the Huskies and Monarchs will cement for them a top-two seed. If the two teams finish the season tied, Northeastern is the one seed by virtue of its head-to-head win over Old Dominion.

***

I may not be warped enough to figure out if the Dutchmen are the first team to clinch the seven seed with multiple games left in the schedule, but I’m not going to lie to you: Spending a few overnight hours surfing bbstate.com to find out the last time anyone in the CAA or America East reached .500 after falling at least five games below the break-even mark was more fun than anything else I could have done with my pants on. Wait, did I just type that?

If only there was a use for these skills and this information outside of my living room, I’d be king of the freakin’ world. Anyway, the research was fun and still left my question unanswered: At no point since 1993-94 (the official start of the Defiantly Dutch Era) has a team in a conference that Hofstra has occupied in that span ever climbed back to .500 after being as many as five games under. Whoohoo, more late-night digging to come!

The Flying Dutchmen appear to be in unchartered territory a little closer to home as well. The only Hofstra team to come back from four games under .500 to reach .500 in conference play was the 1988-89 team, which opened ECC play with a 2-6 mark but finished 7-7 and took eventual champion Bucknell to overtime in the tournament semifinals.

As for the CAA and America East, here is the raw data I found—the list of teams that were three and four games under .500 in the CAA or America East since 1993-94 who managed to reach .500 at some point. With the America East, I was originally going to go back to only 1994-95—Hofstra’s first year in what was then known as the NAC—but I was surprised nobody in the CAA had come back from five games under .500 so I figured I’d play it out to today with the Dutchmen’s former conference as well.

Overall, a CAA team has gone from as many as three games under .500 to .500 just six times since 1993-94. Half of those happened during the wild, parity-heavy 1996-97 season, when Old Dominion and UNC Wilmington tied for first at 10-6 and the next six teams finished within three games of the co-leaders.

It has happened more often in the America East, where nine teams have gone from at least three under .500 to .500, including eight since Hofstra and Co. left the conference after the 2000-01 season. Four America East teams have moved from four games under .500 to .500.

One red flag: None of the teams listed below won their conference tournament and NCAA Tournament berth. But none of them came back from five under .500 to get to .500, either!

CAA teams that moved from four games under .500 to .500

Old Dominion 1999-2000 (opened 1-5, improved to 5-5, finished 6-10)

American 1996-97 (opened 0-4, improved to 5-5, finished 7-9)

CAA teams that moved from three games under .500 to .500

VCU 1998-99 (opened 2-5, improved to 7-6, finished 8-8)

VCU 1996-97 (opened 2-5, improved to 8-5, finished 9-7)

William & Mary 1996-97 (opened 3-6, improved to 8-6, finished 8-8)

American 1994-95 (opened 1-4 and 4-7, finished 7-7)

America East teams that moved from four games under .500 to .500

Maine 2006-07 (opened 0-4, improved to 5-4 and 6-5, finished 7-9)

Hartford 2003-04 (opened 0-4, improved to 4-4, finished 6-12)

Stony Brook 2002-03 (opened 0-4, improved to 5-4 and 6-5, finished 7-9)

America East teams that moved from three games under .500 to .500

Vermont 1999-2000 (opened 2-5, improved to 5-5 and 10-6, finished 11-7)

New Hampshire 2008-09 (opened 4-7, finished 8-8)

Stony Brook 2008-09 (opened 1-4, improved to 8-7, finished 8-8)

Boston University 2007-08 (opened 2-5, finished 9-7)

New Hampshire 2005-06 (opened 0-3, improved to 6-5, finished 8-8)

Northeastern 2002-03 (opened 0-3 and 1-4, improved to 7-6, finished 8-8) 

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.