Bits and Bytes: Of going forth in fourth and going scoreless

The Flying Dutchmen better end up connecting four! (This game ruled)

One of the segments of yesterday’s recap that ended up on the cutting room floor was a reminder that the Flying Dutchmen’s three-game losing streak should have us focused only on Northeastern on Saturday and not any sort of machinations over the final three weeks of the CAA schedule that could allow the fourth-place Dutchmen to move up in the standings.

We remain steadfast in following that wordy variation on a familiar cliché, but the entire CAA hit a mathematically relevant mile marker Wednesday, when the conference season reached the two-thirds mark. So it’s acceptable—just for today, or at least until the Dutchmen win tomorrow and get us all pondering how they can still finish first!—to look back at the history of teams that were in the top four through 12 games (dating to when the league expanded to 12 teams in 2005-06) and whether or not they eventually earned a bye.

Generally speaking, the news is good for teams that are in top four after 12 games: Seventy-five percent—15 of 20—of those squads earned a bye. But, more importantly for our purposes, the team in the most precarious position is the fourth-place squad.

Only two of the five teams that have been in fourth place at this point in the season have earned a bye, and each of the last three teams in this position have fallen out of the top four by season’s end: Drexel fell to sixth in each of the last two years and Delaware fell all the way to seventh in 2007-08. Uh-oh, that’s an awful lot of ECC representation there.

But wait! ECC alumni also account for the fourth-place teams that landed a bye: Drexel in 2006-07 finished fourth and Hofstra took third in 2005-06. Hooray ECC!

As for the first-, second- and third-place teams through 12 games: The news is really good for co-leaders VCU and George Mason (VCU currently holds the tiebreaker because the Rams beat Old Dominion while Mason fell to the Monarchs) as the first- and second-place teams after 12 games have not only earned a bye but also accounted for the regular season champion every year.

History is less convincingly on the side of third-place Old Dominion, as three of the teams in third through 12 games have finished in the top four (William & Mary in 2007-08 fell to fifth and VCU in 2005-06 fell to sixth). Of course, the Monarchs have their own bit of history suggesting they’ll stay in the top four: They’ve earned a bye in each of the last seven seasons.

Going by the trends, Old Dominion being in the top four at this point is a good sign for the Dutchmen, since the Monarchs have come from outside the top four and earn a bye three times (from tied for fifth to fourth in 2008-09, from tied for sixth to fourth in 2007-08 and from tied for fifth to fourth in 2006-07). The others: William & Mary (from sixth to third last year) and UNC Wilmington (from fifth to second in 2007-08).

—One trend that is not a good one for the Dutchmen is Greg Washington’s sudden slump. The senior co-captain has gone scoreless in each of his last two games, which, as we noted yesterday, is particularly jarring since it comes on the heels of a three-game span in which he shot 63 percent as well as an eight-game stretch in which he scored in double figures six times and an 11-game stretch in which he shot 58 percent (51-of-88). Only eight players have ever shot that well for Hofstra over the course of an entire season dating back to 1947-48.

However, scoreless games—at least this season—are nothing new for Washington, who has now failed to score in four of his 23 starts this year (he didn’t score against Western Kentucky Nov. 19 and UNC Wilmington Jan. 19). That’s double the total he had in 43 career starts entering this season. And both of those bagels came during his freshman season, when he made just six early-season starts.

Washington is the first Dutchman to go scoreless in consecutive starts since Greg Johnson capped the 2008-09 season with back-to-back 0-fers against UNC Wilmington and Old Dominion. Darren Townes also had two straight scoreless starts earlier that season against James Madison and UNC Wilmington.

However, neither Johnson nor Townes spent nearly as much time on the court during a scoreless effort as Washington, who played 29 minutes against Drexel and 31 minutes against George Mason. Johnson played 17 minutes combined in his two games while Townes played a total of 26 minutes in his back-to-back scoreless starts. Dating back to 2008-09, only one other Dutchmen has started and gone scoreless while playing more than 25 minutes (Nathaniel Lester, 28 minutes against Georgia State Feb. 25, 2009)

In (pardon the pun) defense of Washington, he contributed far more in his consecutive scoreless efforts than either Johnson or Townes. Washington racked up four rebounds, five blocks and a steal against George Mason and seven rebounds, one block and two steals against Drexel. He also had 10 rebounds in 34 minutes against Western Kentucky (he had just one rebound when foul trouble limited him to 15 minutes against UNC Wilmington).

Johnson, meanwhile, had a total of one assist in his final two games with the Dutchmen while Townes collected five rebounds and two blocked shots in his back-to-back scoreless games.

Only one other Dutchmen has gone scoreless in a start this season (Brad Kelleher against Iona Dec. 29). The Dutchmen received just three scoreless starts last year, all from Cornelius Vines. Remarkably, the Dutchmen had 16 games in which a starter went scoreless in 2008-09, which makes their 21-win season all the more impressive. Johnson “led” the way with five scoreless starts while Townes and Arminas Urbitus had four apiece and Lester, Tony Dennison and Miklos Szabo had one each.

—As we posted last week on Twitter, Flying Dutchman legend Loren Stokes, who has played professionally overseas since his graduation in 2007, is back in the States and playing for Erie, the NBA Developmental League affiliate of the Cavaliers and Raptors.

The Erie Times-News ran a lengthy and interesting feature this week on Stokes, who has had a real rough go of it over the last couple years. His Mom, who was diagnosed with colon cancer while Stokes was at Hofstra, died of the disease a year-and-a-half ago and Stokes returned home from Belgium after last season and hadn’t played until signing with Erie as he took care of his daughter and uncle, both of whom were sick.

His uncle died last Saturday night, one night after Stokes debuted for Erie and scored five points with three rebounds and two assists in a win over Maine. Here’s hoping things begin getting better for Stokes, and soon.

—Oh and one more interesting nugget from that story: Stokes’ coach is Jay Larranaga, son of you-know-who. We kid you not. This comes a little more than three years after Stokes was teammates in the NBA Summer League with that wonderful piece of work Tony Skinn.

And we think we’re haunted by 2006. You think son of you-know-who ever asks Dad for tips on slowing down Stokes or has a Chris Farley Show moment with Stokes?

—I vented on Twitter earlier today about this “scouting report” from SI.com identifying Charles Jenkins as the 13th-best NBA Draft prospect among college seniors. The placement is fine, but the analysis is something south of well-informed. See for yourself.

—Lastly, belated congrats to Loyal Reader Jojogunne, who trounced the field in the Charles Jenkins Record Game by nailing everything almost to the second. He predicted a free throw in the 30th minute. Pretty damn impressive—as was just how close Jenkins came to hitting his average time for his 16th point. As we noted early Saturday, Jenkins scored his 16th point an average of 31 minutes into a game. He scored the record-breaking point with 10:15 to go—a mere 16 seconds away from the 31st minute. All of which proves that if you’re going to bet (even if you wager and win nothing at all!), bet the trends.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

Bits and Bytes: Panic time for the Bucs!

Send the Bucs to the UFL!!

As noted Wednesday, most of us need to do a better job of realizing the inherent peaks and valleys of a sports season and reacting accordingly instead of alternately running to avoid the falling sky and planning the route for the celebratory championship parade.

Except, well, I tried that last week and our beloved Tampa Bay Buccaneers—known worldwide as The Official NFL Team of Defiantly Dutch—blew a 10-point lead against the Washington Redskins, otherwise known as the most dysfunctional organization in sports outside of the team that plays near the parking lot that used to be Shea Stadium, and lost 16-13.

The Bucs are now 0-4 and already four games behind the Super-looking New Orleans Saints in the NFC South, so I think it’s time to pull out the heavy weaponry that worked last week on the Dutchmen.

That’s right: It’s time for Flying Dutchman alum Raheem Morris to change quarterbacks (never mind that I’m not really sure where he can go since the backup to unfinished product Josh Johnson is the even rawer Josh Freeman) and for the Buccaneers to ponder downgrading the program to the UFL, which is supposed to start next week and will surely scare the bejeezus out of the NFL by capturing the imagination of the professional football fan who just finds his Sunday a little lacking.

There. That oughta do it. The Bucs will be 12-4 before you know it. Some other bits and bytes to ponder as you scrounge enough money together to buy tickets to the Bucs’ first playoff game:

—It’s not like I’ve got anybody else to award the trophy for “Most Hilarious Opposing Football Coach,” since post-game press conference Saturday was the first one I’d attended since 1995, way back when dinosaurs roamed the Earth. But James Madison’s Mickey Matthews apparently decided laughter was the best medicine following the Dukes’ 24-17 loss to the Dutchmen.

For instance, here’s Matthews on the Dutchmen going 4-for-5 on fourth down conversions: “The missed one must have been somewhere in pregame warm-ups.”

On the possibility that the officials missed a pass interference call on the Dukes’ final play from scrimmage: “I thought the last play of the game was a bad call. But I’m not going to say nothing. I would have told them they reffed better than we coached.”

On the Dukes’ sluggish play, particularly on defense, in the first half: “I think we decided to play. We [were] really enjoying the sights of Long Island. And it sure is pretty up here. Nice hotel. Nice mills. Nice looking girls. Nice people and nice stadium.”

Maybe he can pen the “About Long Island” section of next year’s media guide.

—The Dutchmen aren’t the offensive juggernaut of the Joe Gardi era, but you’ve got to figure Gardi would have loved coaching quarterback Steve Probst, who chimed in at the post-game press conference after Cohen talked about the Dutchmen’s aggressiveness on fourth down.

“Nobody likes to punt,” Probst said.

—You, too, can help the Binghamton men’s basketball team defend its America East championship! (Of course, Binghamton couldn’t even hold an open tryout without ticking off the authorities) As long as, one assumes, you pass a thorough background check.

—Loren Stokes and Antoine Agudio were among the 25 players named to the CAA’s 25th anniversary team this week, a pretty impressive feat considering the five other teams to join the CAA since the turn of the century combined to place just one player on the team (Northeastern’s Jose Juan Barea). Clearly, Tom O’Connor had nothing to do with the selection process.

—You might see the calendar, realize yesterday was the 15^th anniversary of the Dutchmen’s 62-7 thrashing of Central Connecticut State—a win that finally vaulted Hofstra into the top 25—and wonder where in the hell is the recap of that game. More than likely, this is the first you’ve thought of it. That’s OK, I forgive you.

Anyway, we went away for a few days and taking a giant Chronicle blue book on the trip seemed like a bad idea of ginormous proportions, so that recap will appear upon our return late tonight or first thing Friday. Stop back for that as well as a more in-depth look at the 28-6 win over New Hampshire, otherwise known as The Game That Changed Everything.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com or follow Defiantly Dutch at http://twitter.com/defiantlydutch.

In which I realize the history of Hofstra basketball goes back at least five years

Who knew, in 1998, that the first and oft-repeated line of this Third Eye Blind song was about Flying Dutchmen fans circa 2009?

As the song goes (not the one above...that'd be too predictable), I was wrong Tuesday when I wrote a Tom Pecora never had to rebuild a team’s wounded psyche on the fly. Actually, that’s not how the Social Distortion song goes at all. A California punk/blues rock band writing a song in 1996 about Tom Pecora rebuilding a team’s wounded psyche on the fly would just be weird.

Anyway, the Flying Dutchmen also skidded ashore after a red-hot start in 2004-05, when a team picked to finish seventh in the CAA took advantage of a lightweight non-conference schedule to begin the season 9-0—the program’s best start ever at the Division I level—but immediately thereafter endured a 1-5 stretch that included four straight conference losses.

That season’s slump and the current 1-4 skid that has followed an 8-1 start by a team picked to finish seventh in the CAA aren’t mirror images of one another. For one thing, this is much deeper: The Dutchmen have been outscored by 49 points in the losses and their point total has dwindled in each of the five games—from 81 to 64 to 62 to 56 to 50. In 2004-05, the Dutchmen were outscored by 28 points in the five losses and they scored at least 66 points in every game but one in the six-game stretch.

In addition, Hofstra has trailed wire-to-wire in its last two games, a “feat” not accomplished in any of the five previous seasons (the box scores at the Hofstra site go back to 2002-03).

But there are plenty of notable similarities. The 1-5 run four years ago began with the game that had long been identified as the biggest challenge on the OOC—an 80-75 loss to Syracuse. This one began with the 97-81 hammering by UMass, which was one of only two games on this year’s OOC against a school from a major conference.

The fourth loss in the 2004-05 stumble was a 70-58 defeat at the hands of VCU in which the Dutchmen made a key lineup change—senior Wendell Gibson, who was recovering from knee surgery, became a starter in place of Aurimas Kieza—set season-lows for points and assists (six) while committing a season-high 20 turnovers. Carlos Rivera and Antoine Agudio shot a combined 0-for-9 in the first half as the Dutchmen were limited to 18 points overall.

These Dutchmen suffered their fourth loss in five games against Northeastern Monday, when Tony Dennison was benched for the first time this season as Greg Johnson made his first start. The Dutchmen scored their fewest points and committed their most turnovers and missed the season low in assists by one. Charles Jenkins and Cornelius Vines shot a combined 1-for-6 during Hofstra’s 18-point first half.

This team has a lumbering senior center with injury-wracked knees in Dane Johnson. That team had Gibson. This team’s two best players are sophomores Jenkins and Greg Washington. That team’s three best players were sophomores Rivera and Loren Stokes and redshirt freshman Agudio. This team features a senior point guard in Johnson who has one more shot to live up to the high expectations bestowed upon him when he arrived on campus as a freshman—just like the 2004-05 team and Woody Souffrant.

And speaking of high expectations, this team has a trio of JUCO transfers who were projected to make an immediate impact in Dennison, Vines and Miklos Szabo. Four years ago, JUCO transfers Kenny Harris and Adrian Uter were touted as potentially valuable big men.

Here’s another similarity the Dutchmen hope to experience tonight when they host much-improved long-time rival Delaware: The 2004-05 team snapped its losing streak against the Blue Hens with an 80-66 win at the Arena.

And here’s another reminder to follow Michael Litos’ suggestion and step away from the ledge (says the guy who has written 2,000 mostly fretful words over the previous two days): The Dutchmen didn’t immediately turn their season around following the Delaware win and were 6-6 after 12 conference games that season, but they won their final six contests to earn a first-round bye and led top-seeded Old Dominion by 10 points in the second half of a conference semifinal before falling to the eventual champions. The Dutchmen earned a bid to the NIT, where they fell in the first round to St. Joseph’s to finish 21-9.

Of course, if they lose tonight and look as disjointed as they did Monday, feel free to re-enter panic mode. Then I’ll really begin to wonder if this is 1995-96 all over again. More on ’95-‘96, win or lose, tomorrow. In the meantime, Darren Townes is again the pick to click. And come back later today, when I may have something really interesting for you. How’s that for an enticement to make a return visit this afternoon?

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com.

We're no. 11! We're no. 11! (And other bits and bytes)

Vyvyan, Neil, Nigel and Mike are all on the bandwagon, even if we're playing popular American music instead of British punk.

Some bits and bytes, most looking back, one looking ahead:

—The bandwagon is getting more crowded. Two wins last week seemed to impress the coaches who vote in the mid-major poll at Collegeinsider.com. The Flying Dutchmen made the biggest leap in the rankings in moving from 19 to 11 in a poll released Monday. Only one CAA team—VCU at no. 9—ranks ahead of Hofstra.

Plenty of room here, but if you don’t hurry you might have to fight for seats in the middle and front of the bus. Because everyone knows the cool kids sit in the back, and the prime real estate—the very last seats on the bus—are already occupied by Sully Ray and my wife. They’re also in charge of the music, which means an eclectic mix of Bruce Springsteen, Billy Joel and the New Kids on the Block performing the very worst Christmas song ever recorded.

Where was I? Oh yeah.

—My first attempt at pegging a surprise contributor (that game needs a much better name, BTW, so if you’ve got any ideas, email me at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com) went fairly well Saturday. Neither Tony Dennison nor Darren Townes had breakout games, but both produced something to build upon in the 68-52 win over St. Francis.

Dennison remained cold from outside (0-for-3 from 3-point land) but drove the lane for four layups and finished with nine points in 26 minutes, his most extensive playing time since Manhattan. Dennison is listed at 6-foot-3 and 180 pounds, right around the size of the recent superstar guards at Hofstra, but he looks broader than Loren Stokes, Carlos Rivera or Antoine Agudio and better built for slashing to the basket, particularly if he never finds his form from beyond the arc (11-for-40 thus far).

After playing just 27 minutes in the previous three games combined, Townes played 21 minutes against St. Francis and tied a season-high with seven rebounds. He also had six points and equaled his season total entering the game with two blocks, including one of his fellow no. 21, Nigel Byam (best name of the year, bar none).

—I hope someone else in the audience hears/sees the name Nigel and thinks of The Young Ones, the freaking hilarious British comedy that aired on Sunday nights on MTV in the mid-80s. It’s true: MTV used to show something other than music videos. I know that’s shocking to you, kids.

—I can’t decide if someone should assume point guard duties from Charles Jenkins or not. He seemed a bit out-of-sorts Saturday, when he tied his season low by scoring 11 points on a season-worst 4-for-16 shooting. He drained his only 3-pointer in six attempts immediately after Greg Johnson replaced him at the point following the second media timeout of the first half.

Yet on the other hand…why mess with what’s working when your best player is able to make multiple contributions even when his shots aren’t falling? He had 10 rebounds Saturday, tying his career high set against Iona in February. And the other time he had 11 points, he dished out a career-high nine assists against Manhattan.

He also added seven assists Saturday, putting him within flirting distance of the first triple-double in school history. When your best player has a down game by his standards yet still puts up a line that reads 11-10-7, you’ve got a pretty good best player.

Jenkins has earned plenty of comparisons to Stokes, but while Stokes had plenty of eye-popping double-doubles (like the 30 points and 15 boards he racked up against William & Mary Jan. 20, 2007), he never put up a line like the one Jenkins produced Saturday. Among recent players, Rivera came closest to Jenkins’ stat line, coincidentally enough against St. Francis on Dec. 20, 2005, when he had 11 points, 10 assists and four boards.

—Greg Johnson, meanwhile, had one of those “why can’t he do this all the time” games Saturday, when he scored five points (only the third time this season he’s gotten into the scoring column), tied a season high with three assists and recorded five steals, two more than he had all year coming into the game. He did have three turnovers in 17 minutes, so it wasn’t quite perfect. But as the lone pure point guard on the roster, I remain convinced he’s going to pull a Roberto Gittens in the second half of the season and get big minutes down the stretch.

—Shame on me for not pointing out Friday that a win Saturday would lift Tom Pecora out of a tie for fourth place on the all-time win list at Hofstra with his best friend and predecessor, Jay Wright. Well, congratulations to Pecora, who now has 123 wins in just over eight seasons. He’s 23 wins behind Frank Reilly and 29 wins behind Paul Lynner, so Pecora will become the second-winningest coach in Hofstra history when the Dutchmen cut the nets down in Detroit on the first Monday of April! Alas, Butch van Breda Kolff’s 215 wins are still multiple seasons away for Pecora.

I have no idea how rare it is, but I can’t imagine it’s all that common for a heir apparent to record more wins than his mentor. Either way, it’s pretty cool that two coaches have been able to craft such distinctive legacies over a 15-season span.

—Lastly, the game against UMass this weekend just got a lot more interesting after the Minutemen shocked Kansas, 61-60, Saturday. Sure, the Jayhawks were decimated by graduation and early departures for the NBA and the win was in Kansas City and not at Allen Fieldhouse, but still, a win over the defending national champs on their turf is pretty remarkable anytime.

The win provided further proof UMass is better than its 3-6 record: The Minutemen have lost three games by four points or fewer and dropped another by seven points. They also played Memphis, which fell to Kansas in the national championship game last year, so the schedule is RPI friendly.

Speaking of the RPI: I have zero faith Hofstra can get an at-large bid even if it goes 31-2 and falls in 12 overtimes in the CAA final, but regardless, this is the Dutchmen’s best chance to boost its standing in the RPI before conference play starts. More on the Minutemen later this week, but one look at the UMass roster and the year-to-date stats indicates this will be the biggest test—literally—of the Dutchmen’s new-found depth and inside presence. A win Saturday and the bandwagon might get really cramped.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com.

No knock on Agudio if Dutch are better without him

Two hundred and forty-two days after Antonie Agudio played his final game at Hofstra Arena, we get a glimpse tonight of how the Flying Dutchmen will look without the most prolific scorer in school history when the Blue/White Scrimmage takes place at 8. Michael Litos had a really interesting post last week in which he wrote that the Flying Dutchmen will need multiple players to replace Agudio’s scoring yet may not find him irreplaceable:

Don’t get me wrong, Agudio was a great scorer. What I mean is that while Agudio may have filled up the hoop, he wasn’t the best player. I think he may have had about three double-doubles his entire career. I’d bet Carlos Rivera had more dub-dubs. And Loren Stokes? Fuggetaboutit. Those guys made everyone better.

Mike's instincts were right: Agudio had just one double-double in 122 career games (he had 30 points and 10 rebounds in a 70-68 win over Charlotte last Dec. 15). Stokes had eight double-doubles (three in ’06-07, two in ’05-06 and ’04-05 and one in ’03-04) while Rivera had four (one in ’06-07, two in ’05-06 and one in ’03-04).

And Mike is correct in contending that Agudio wasn’t as impressive an all-around player as Stokes or Rivera. But that’s fine. He wasn’t a bruised-and-battered slasher like Stokes and he wasn’t a do-everything point guard like Rivera. He was a cold-blooded outside shooter, and nobody ever did it any better at Hofstra than Agudio, who finished his career, appropriately enough, with 357 three-pointers.

If he missed his first 10 shots, you didn’t want to see him anchored to the bench. You wanted his teammates to keep feeding him the ball because you felt as if he’d find his stroke in the next 10 shots.

Stokes and Rivera certainly made everyone better, including Agudio. Nobody noticed who or what he wasn’t when he was surrounded by those two stars. And while the Flying Dutchmen missed the versatile play of Stokes and Rivera last year, I don’t think Hofstra even reaches double digits in victories without Agudio providing a foundation for a team in transition.

And this isn't directed at Mike, but I also think the perception of Agudio is skewed a bit by fate: Had he not broken his hand in a season-opening exhibition in 2003-04, he doesn’t get redshirted and he graduates with Stokes and Rivera as one-third of a phenomenal senior class. (And in that case, Steve Nisenson probably still holds the school scoring record) But because he had an extra year, the final memory of Agudio is as the key member of the Flying Dutchmen’s disappointing 2007-08 season, not as part of the group that thrust Hofstra on to the national stage.

All that said, I won’t be surprised at all if the Flying Dutchmen are much better in the first year of the post-Agudio era. I think this could be the most diverse team Pecora’s ever coached, one that won’t be nearly as reliant on guard play and can create points inside as well as outside. I don’t think Pecora, who has long loved running the offense around fleet guard play, has gotten enough credit for adapting his philosophies and recognizing how valuable front court depth can be at the mid-major level. Adrian Uter and Aurimas Kieza were tremendous in 2005-06, but there wasn’t much behind them.

The Flying Dutchmen have six players listed at 6-foot-7 or taller. It’s not the first time Hofstra’s had several big bodies, but the first time it feels like every single one of the big guys can be contributors. So it’ll be particularly interesting to see how returnees Greg Washington, Dane Johnson, Darren Townes, Mike Davis-Saab and Arminas Urbutis and transfer Miklos Szabo look tonight.

If you’re going, see you there. I’ll be the guy yelling about Chris Johnke.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com.