The perception is the reality is the perception (Plus: Fun with hats!)

Everybody CAA today!

If you’re like me (once again, I’m sorry…are you thinking Monday is a good day to really start the diet, too?), then you were surprised to call up the CAA standings and see Hofstra still residing at the top with a 9-3 record. It seems like every time I look at ESPN’s scroll, another CAA team is extending its winning streak, which further fuels the concern over the Flying Dutchmen, who have struggled just to tread water over the last four weeks.

The league-wide reality doesn’t quite match the perception—or does it? Since the look-but-don’t-touch CAA opener Dec. 6, CAA teams are 28-23, which represents a pretty solid improvement over the overall record prior to and including the openers (44-46).

But the bulk of the conference played far better than the mean over the last four weeks. The eight teams who are better than .500 over that span—Hofstra, Old Dominion, George Mason, VCU, Northeastern, James Madison, Delaware and William & Mary—are a combined 25-7.

It feels like everyone’s winning because the winning is being done by pre-season favorites and sleepers alike, which only adds to the pick-the-winner-out-of-a-hat unpredictability of the conference (more on that later) and the unpredictable emotions of those rooting for a team in contention. It’s anyone’s ballgame, Hofstra (err, fill in the blank) can win it all. Or it’s anyone’s ballgame, Hofstra (err, fill in the blank) is sure to be doomed by the randomness of it all.

When perennial contender Old Dominion got off to a slow start (1-3, including consecutive losses to Bucknell and Marshall by a combined five points), it gave hope to those picked in the middle or the back of the pack. But the Monarchs (5-0 following the conference opener) are by far the hottest team in the conference with seven straight wins, including the last five by at least 10 points. Three of those victories have been by at least 25 points.

Delaware, which was a near-consensus pick to return to the top half of the conference, is 4-1 since a four-game losing streak. James Madison, expected to struggle under first-year coach Matt Brady, went 4-1 after the conference opener with wins over perennial NCAA Tournament team Belmont on the road and a home rout of Big East foe Seton Hall. The Dukes’ lone loss was a more-than-respectable 13-point defeat at Texas-El Paso.

Northeastern, a popular pick to enjoy a first-round bye in March, has played just three games since Dec. 6, but the Huskies beat Indiana on the road and suffered their loss at defending national runner-up Memphis. William & Mary has played just two games since the conference opener, but hey, 2-0 is 2-0.

The perception is that VCU and George Mason have yet to meet expectations. VCU, with three straight wins by five points or less, isn’t looking like the unstoppable force it was predicted to be two months ago, while George Mason doesn’t yet appear to have a take-charge guy. Yet the two teams are a combined 8-2 since the CAA openers. To paraphrase something Mike Piazza used to say a lot: You know you’ve got a pretty impressive track record when 8-2 is being criticized.

The other four teams—Georgia State, Drexel, Towson and UNC-Wilmington—dragged the overall record down by going a combined 3-16. And even Drexel’s placement among the bottom four is a bit misleading: The Dragons have won their last two games and lost only one game by more than six points in a stretch in which they played only one home contest.

It’s anybody’s ballgame, it’s everybody’s ballgame. We wouldn’t have it any other way. Let’s go. (If you’re an old-school MTV fan, you will absolutely love the first minute or so of that clip)

***

Today’s gritfest (not a word, but it should be) against Drexel won’t be the only one Hofstra plays in the next five days. Northeastern, the Flying Dutchmen’s opponent Monday, has given up 60 points or less in five of its 11 games. Two straight sludgey (again, not a word, but it should be) games to start the schedule, followed by another battle for ECC bragging rights with Delaware. Add it all up and I feel like I did prior to Charleston seven weeks ago (!!): A 2-1 mark would be fine and dandy. Three-and-oh and, once again, I might change the name of the blog to Deliriously Dutch.

***

Two interesting stories to read before we get immersed in conference play. Good piece by Litos at Basketball State, complete with quotes from Tom Pecora, about why more mid-majors are scheduling OOC games against non-Division I foes. Can you identify the three former Flying Dutchmen pictured behind Pecora?

And check out the four-part CAA preview by Wilmington Star-News beat writer Brian Mull at his blog. The entry featuring his look at Hofstra can be found here.

***

Lastly, I’ve been meaning to do this for weeks, ever since Pecora said this when I asked him about predictions during our pre-season Q&A: “I think everyone picked VCU and then they threw the rest of the teams in the hat and just started pulling them out.”

So I thought to myself, let’s do that and see how close it comes to the real thing. But six weeks came and went and here we are. So I better do it now, before it’s irrelevant instead of just irreverent. Ever mix up those words? I have. Embarrassing.

First, say hi to the magic hat. My wife says it’s disgusting, I say it’s got character.

You should see the inside brim. Proudly perspired.

Here's how the hat picked 'em:

1.) VCU (not in the hat)
2.) Georgia State
3.) Delaware
4.) James Madison
5.) Northeastern
6.) Drexel
7.) Towson
8.) UNC-Wilmington
9.) George Mason
10.) William & Mary
11.) Hofstra
12.) Old Dominion

That happens, and I’m taking the hat to Vegas and playing the NFL and MLB futures with it. And then destroying it for dooming the Flying Dutchmen.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com.

We're no. 11! We're no. 11! (And other bits and bytes)

Vyvyan, Neil, Nigel and Mike are all on the bandwagon, even if we're playing popular American music instead of British punk.

Some bits and bytes, most looking back, one looking ahead:

—The bandwagon is getting more crowded. Two wins last week seemed to impress the coaches who vote in the mid-major poll at Collegeinsider.com. The Flying Dutchmen made the biggest leap in the rankings in moving from 19 to 11 in a poll released Monday. Only one CAA team—VCU at no. 9—ranks ahead of Hofstra.

Plenty of room here, but if you don’t hurry you might have to fight for seats in the middle and front of the bus. Because everyone knows the cool kids sit in the back, and the prime real estate—the very last seats on the bus—are already occupied by Sully Ray and my wife. They’re also in charge of the music, which means an eclectic mix of Bruce Springsteen, Billy Joel and the New Kids on the Block performing the very worst Christmas song ever recorded.

Where was I? Oh yeah.

—My first attempt at pegging a surprise contributor (that game needs a much better name, BTW, so if you’ve got any ideas, email me at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com) went fairly well Saturday. Neither Tony Dennison nor Darren Townes had breakout games, but both produced something to build upon in the 68-52 win over St. Francis.

Dennison remained cold from outside (0-for-3 from 3-point land) but drove the lane for four layups and finished with nine points in 26 minutes, his most extensive playing time since Manhattan. Dennison is listed at 6-foot-3 and 180 pounds, right around the size of the recent superstar guards at Hofstra, but he looks broader than Loren Stokes, Carlos Rivera or Antoine Agudio and better built for slashing to the basket, particularly if he never finds his form from beyond the arc (11-for-40 thus far).

After playing just 27 minutes in the previous three games combined, Townes played 21 minutes against St. Francis and tied a season-high with seven rebounds. He also had six points and equaled his season total entering the game with two blocks, including one of his fellow no. 21, Nigel Byam (best name of the year, bar none).

—I hope someone else in the audience hears/sees the name Nigel and thinks of The Young Ones, the freaking hilarious British comedy that aired on Sunday nights on MTV in the mid-80s. It’s true: MTV used to show something other than music videos. I know that’s shocking to you, kids.

—I can’t decide if someone should assume point guard duties from Charles Jenkins or not. He seemed a bit out-of-sorts Saturday, when he tied his season low by scoring 11 points on a season-worst 4-for-16 shooting. He drained his only 3-pointer in six attempts immediately after Greg Johnson replaced him at the point following the second media timeout of the first half.

Yet on the other hand…why mess with what’s working when your best player is able to make multiple contributions even when his shots aren’t falling? He had 10 rebounds Saturday, tying his career high set against Iona in February. And the other time he had 11 points, he dished out a career-high nine assists against Manhattan.

He also added seven assists Saturday, putting him within flirting distance of the first triple-double in school history. When your best player has a down game by his standards yet still puts up a line that reads 11-10-7, you’ve got a pretty good best player.

Jenkins has earned plenty of comparisons to Stokes, but while Stokes had plenty of eye-popping double-doubles (like the 30 points and 15 boards he racked up against William & Mary Jan. 20, 2007), he never put up a line like the one Jenkins produced Saturday. Among recent players, Rivera came closest to Jenkins’ stat line, coincidentally enough against St. Francis on Dec. 20, 2005, when he had 11 points, 10 assists and four boards.

—Greg Johnson, meanwhile, had one of those “why can’t he do this all the time” games Saturday, when he scored five points (only the third time this season he’s gotten into the scoring column), tied a season high with three assists and recorded five steals, two more than he had all year coming into the game. He did have three turnovers in 17 minutes, so it wasn’t quite perfect. But as the lone pure point guard on the roster, I remain convinced he’s going to pull a Roberto Gittens in the second half of the season and get big minutes down the stretch.

—Shame on me for not pointing out Friday that a win Saturday would lift Tom Pecora out of a tie for fourth place on the all-time win list at Hofstra with his best friend and predecessor, Jay Wright. Well, congratulations to Pecora, who now has 123 wins in just over eight seasons. He’s 23 wins behind Frank Reilly and 29 wins behind Paul Lynner, so Pecora will become the second-winningest coach in Hofstra history when the Dutchmen cut the nets down in Detroit on the first Monday of April! Alas, Butch van Breda Kolff’s 215 wins are still multiple seasons away for Pecora.

I have no idea how rare it is, but I can’t imagine it’s all that common for a heir apparent to record more wins than his mentor. Either way, it’s pretty cool that two coaches have been able to craft such distinctive legacies over a 15-season span.

—Lastly, the game against UMass this weekend just got a lot more interesting after the Minutemen shocked Kansas, 61-60, Saturday. Sure, the Jayhawks were decimated by graduation and early departures for the NBA and the win was in Kansas City and not at Allen Fieldhouse, but still, a win over the defending national champs on their turf is pretty remarkable anytime.

The win provided further proof UMass is better than its 3-6 record: The Minutemen have lost three games by four points or fewer and dropped another by seven points. They also played Memphis, which fell to Kansas in the national championship game last year, so the schedule is RPI friendly.

Speaking of the RPI: I have zero faith Hofstra can get an at-large bid even if it goes 31-2 and falls in 12 overtimes in the CAA final, but regardless, this is the Dutchmen’s best chance to boost its standing in the RPI before conference play starts. More on the Minutemen later this week, but one look at the UMass roster and the year-to-date stats indicates this will be the biggest test—literally—of the Dutchmen’s new-found depth and inside presence. A win Saturday and the bandwagon might get really cramped.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com.