The Flying Dutchmen season is going, going...
From can we just not lose to Stony Brook at home to can we just not get swept this season by Stony Brook to can we just not lose on Senior Day in our last game before we probably play Stony Brook again, all in three weeks! The weirdest and most disappointing regular season in memory concludes this afternoon, when the Dutchmen host North Carolina A&T in the aforementioned Senior Day. It hasn’t gone very well, but we’re gonna miss it anyway.
As will hopefully remain the routine throughout conference play (so far so good), I ran down the boilerplate material from Thursday’s loss to Stony Brook in Friday’s Keep It Perky. Sigh. Today will be about the individual news and notes from that loss as well as a preview of the Aggies. Try and enjoy anyway!
REALITY BITES
Any glimmers of hope for this season likely disappeared with Thursday’s loss, which ensured the Dutchmen of a bottom-four finish in the CAA and relegated to the out-outbracket games next Friday. It will be the first time since 2016-17 the Dutchmen play on the opening day of the CAA Tournament. Speaking of 2016-17, the loss Thursday dropped the Dutchmen to 13-17 overall, which all but locks up the program’s first sub-,500 season since…that’s right, 2016-17, when the Dutchmen finished 15-17. To finish .500, the Dutchmen will either a.) have to win their next five games, which would take them to the CAA championship game on Mar. 11 or b.) accept an invitation to the CBI. I don’t have to tell you neither one of these are very likely scenarios.
FAREWELL FEBRUARY
Because all the other alliterative possibilities were NC-17! The Dutchmen finished 1-6 in February. At least it’s not a leap year! The 1-6 mark is the Dutchmen’s worst in a month since they went 1-8 in January 2017, when they endured a six-game losing streak that was the longest of the Joe Mihalich Era. In addition, the 1-6 mark in February was the Dutchmen’s worst in February since they went 1-7 in February 2014, which was the final full month of Mihalich’s first season at the helm. The Dutchmen were 1-3 in February 2021 before their final four games were canceled due to COVID issues.
A NARROW SWEEP
Well, we mention the good and the bad here, so…with Thursday’s win, Stony Brook completed a regular season sweep of the Dutchmen, whom they only outscored by eight points in the two wins. That’s the smallest point differential in a regular season series in which the Dutchmen were swept since James Madison outscored the Dutchmen by eight points — via a pair of four-point victories — during the 2020-21 season.
THE CURE FOR WHAT AILS THE SEAWOLVES
This one really stings. The Dutchmen were swept by Stony Brook, who enter today with a 3-14 CAA record. I was not a math major, but that means the Seawolves have beaten just one other CAA team this season. However, I didn’t have to look back far to find an even more demoralizing season sweep endured by a CAA team. In 2019-20, UNC Wilmington was swept by James Madison to account for both the Dukes’ wins during a 2-16 season. So there is that.
CLOSE BUT NO VICTORY CIGARS
The loss Thursday night marked the Dutchmen’s seventh straight defeat in a game decided by six points or fewer or in overtime dating back to Jan. 16. Wow! Spanning two presidential administrations! That’s the longest such streak for the Dutchmen since they lost seven such games from Jan. 16 through Mar. 9, 2013. Once again, I don’t need to tell you any comparisons to the 2012-13 season are not great.
THE NOT-SO-FAB FIFTIES
This one really says it all. The loss Thursday night was the first for the Dutchmen in which they surrendered fewer than 60 points since way back on Feb. 10, 2014, hen the Dutchmen fell to James Madison 59-53. Another way to put it: The loss Thursday ended a 58-game winning streak in games in which the Dutchmen allowed fewer than 60 points. What a perfect summation of this off-kilter season.
WIN PROBABILITY, SCHWIN PROBABILITY
Stony Brook’s win probability, per KenPom.com, bottomed out at 11.9 percent when the Dutchmen led 56-51 with 3:10 left in the game. That’s only the fourth-lowest win probability for an opponent in a Dutchmen loss this season but the seventh time the Dutchmen have lost a game in which their opponent’s win percentage bottomed out at under 15 percent. That is by far the most such losses for the Dutchmen since the 2009-10 season, which is as far back as box scores (and win probability graphs) go at KenPom.com. The Dutchmen had five such losses in both 2014-15 and 2015-16.
NO FIRST HALF FADE
Who could have imagined the price for a solid final couple minutes of the first half was a painful collapse down the stretch in the second half? The Dutchmen outscored Stony Brook 6-2 over the final two minutes of the first half Thursday night while going 3-of-4 from the field and holding the Seawolves to 1-of-2 shooting with one turnover. Most importantly, German Plotnikov’s putback of a missed shot by KiJan Robinson with 17 seconds left gave the Dutchmen their first points on their last possession of the first half since way back on Jan. 25, when Michael Graham’s dunk preceded a free throw by Campbell’s Cam Gregory. The Dutchmen played eight games in between their last-possession scores. Overall this season in CAA play, the Dutchmen have been outscored 55-44 in the final two minutes of the first half in 17 league games, during which their opponent has shot 18-of-42 from the field (42.9 percent) in the last two minutes and scored on their final possession seven times. The Dutchmen have shot 18-of-48 from the field (37.5 percent) in the last two minutes of the first half and scored on their last possession five times.
THE CAA RACE
There’s not much to say here. Even with a win Thursday night, the Dutchmen’s hopes of avoiding a bottom-four seed and a spot in the out-outbracket games to open the CAA Tournament on Mar. 7 would have ended due to Northeastern’s 69-55 win over North Carolina A&T. But thanks to Delaware’s 94-84 loss to Charleston, at least the Dutchmen didn’t lose ground Thursday? We’ll take what we can get.
11.) HOFSTRA 5-12
12.) Delaware 5-12
13.) North Carolina A&T 3-14
14.) Stony Brook 3-14
This is pretty simple. The Dutchmen will clinch the 11th seed with a win today or a Delaware loss tonight to UNC Wilmington. The Dutchmen swept the season series with Delaware and will thus win any tiebreaker. The Dutchmen can finish no lower than 12th and will play either one of their final two regular season opponents, Stony Brook or North Carolina A&T, next Friday.
North Carolina A&T will clinch the 13th seed with either a win or a loss by Stony Brook tonight to Not Twitter Guy. The Seawolves will be the 13th seed with a win and a loss by North Carolina A&T. The Aggies and Seawolves split their season series but the Aggies will win any tiebreaker because of their win over Campbell (10-7) ensures they have a win over a higher-ranked seed than Stony Brook. Not Twitter Guy enters today at 8-9 in the CAA.
JEAN FITS
Jean Aranguren had his most effective game in nearly three weeks Thursday night, when he led the Dutchmen with 17 points and eight rebounds while sharing the team lead with four assists. Aranguren was 7-of-16 from the field — including 1-of-5 from 3-point land — in scoring his most points since Feb. 8, when he also had 17 points against Stony Brook in an 80-75 loss. He had just 30 points on 12-of-40 shooting, including 1-of-9 from beyond the arc, in the subsequent four games, a span in which he finished in double figures just once. Aranguren has scored in double figures 24 times in 31 games this season after reaching double figures just nine times in 33 games last season with Iona.
ARANGUREN’S TRIPLE CROWN (sorta)
Does a baseball player still win the Triple Crown if he ties for the league lead in one category? I’ve always wondered that. Anyway, Jean Aranguren may or may not have won the Hofstra triple crown Thursday night, when he led the Dutchmen with 17 points and eight reboudns while finishing with four assists, which was tied for the team lead with Cruz Davis. Aranguren is the first Hofstra player to lead or share the team lead in those three categories since Davis led the Dutchmen with 28 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in the 93-68 win over Delaware on Jan. 23.
GERMAN FOR STARTERS
German Plotnikov, the lone returning player who made a start last season for the Dutchmen, continued his solid stretch Thursday night, when he finished with 13 points on 5-of-9 shooting — including 3-of-6 from 3-point land — while adding seven rebounds, two blocks and two steals over 35 minutes. Plotnikov tied a season-high with the seven rebounds and was one shy of his career-high set in a 101-48 win over Division III St. Joseph’s (NY) on Nov. 6, 2023. He has scored 40 points over the last three games, which is most prolific three-game stretch for Plotnikov since he had 45 points in three games from Feb. 10-17, 2024. Plotnikov, who made his sixth straight start Saturday, has scored in 21 of the last 22 games in which he’s played after scoring just once in the first six games.
CRUZ-IN
Cruz Davis recovered from a scoreless first half Thursday night to finish with 11 points — albeit on 5-of-16 shooting — as well as four assists and two steals over 37 minutes. Davis was 0-of-4 from the field, including 0-of-2 from 3-point land, in the first half before heating up in the second half. He has reached double figures 19 times in 30 games this season after scoring at least 10 points just five times over the previous two seasons for Iona and St. John’s. The Dutchmen are now 10-9 when Davis scores in double figures.
FARMER AID
Khalil Farmer continued to provide some quality glue guy minutes Thursday night, when he started in place of an inactive TJ Gadsden for the second straight game and finished with five points on 2-of-7 shooting while adding six rebounds and one assist in 33 minutes. Farmer has 24 points and 13 rebounds over the last two games after posting just 18 points and eight rebounds over 127 minutes in his previous seven games from Jan. 30 through Feb. 20. In addition, Farmer has at least four rebounds in each of the last three games after never recording more than three rebounds in any of his first 48 career games. Farmer has scored in 21 of the last 25 games in which he’s played after he didn’t score in his first two games of the season.
GRAHAM CRACKIN’
Michael Graham had a quiet game Thursday night, when he finished with two points, six rebounds and one assist in 23 minutes. Graham has scored fewer than 10 points in each of the last five games after reaching double figures six times in a 10-game span from Jan. 9 through Feb. 8. However, Graham hit his only field goal attempt Thursday and is shooting 60.8 percent (59-for-97) in 17 CAA games, a stretch that includes two games against William & Mary in which he didn’t attempt a shot as well as a 3-of-12 game against Northeastern on Feb. 6. The Dutchmen are now 9-11 when Graham plays at least 20 minutes, including 4-9 in CAA play,
SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY
Silas Sunday had another solid game in his usual backup center role Thursday night, when he had four points on 2-of-4 shooting while adding four rebounds and three blocks in 17 minutes. The three blocks tied a season- and career-high for Sunday set four times previously. Sunday missed his first field goal attempt of the game with 13:41 left in the first half, which ended a streak of seven straight made field goals dating back to the second half of a 67-49 loss to Hampton on Feb. 15. The 17 minutes were the most for Sunday since he also played 17 minutes in the 80-75 loss to Stony Brook on Feb. 8. Sunday has played at least 10 minutes in 24 of 30 games this season after logging 10 minutes 17 times in 32 games last season.
PARNELL NOT AS POTENT
Eric Parnell, fresh off scoring 10 key points in last Saturday’s 78-65 win over Delaware, got 10 minutes of playing time with Jaquan Sanders inactive again Thursday but was scoreless on 0-of-4 shooting — including 0-of-3 from 3-point land — while finishing with one rebound. The scoreless effort was the first in a game in which Parnell played since Jan, 23, when he didn’t attempt a shot in two minutes in the 93-68 win over Delaware, while the four field goal attempts were his most without a make in 13 games this season.
DECADY’S CAMEO
Joshua DeCady continued to see limited duty Thursday night, when he scored two points while finishing with two rebounds in five minutes. DeCady looked like he might be headed for another one of his big Thursday night games when he delivered an emphatic dunk with 12:35 left in the first half, but he missed his next three shots before exiting for good with 9:28 remaining. He has 38 points in 16 CAA games, including 26 points in just three games on a trio of Thursdays against William & Mary (Jan. 2), Not Twitter Guy (Jan. 30) and William & Mary again (Feb. 13). DeCady has played in a career-high 11 straight games after appearing in just 12 of the Dutchmen’s first 19 games.
WHERE HAVE YOU GONE, MR. ROBINSON
KiJan Robinson ended his two-game scoring drought Thursday night, when he scored two points on 1-of-2 shooting over two minutes late in the first half. Robinson’s jumper with 1:51 left started the Dutchmen’s half-ending 6-2 run and marked his first points since Feb. 15, when he drained a free throw in the 67-49 loss to Hampton. The basket was Robinson’s first field goal since Feb 13, when he hit a 3-pointer for his lone points in a 61-60 loss to William & Mary. Robinson has just 19 points over 78 minutes in the last 11 games he’s played, a span in which he was held scoreless four times. He was held scoreless just twice in the Dutchmen’s first 18 games, a span in which Robinson averaged 8.1 points and 21 minutes per game.
OVER THE AIR
This afternoon’s game is slated to be carried live on FloHoops.com (subscription required, click here for options) as well as on MSG Networks if you are in the New York area and/or somehow paid one billion dollars (approx) for the Gotham Sports app. And hey, if you live in the New York area, now you can watch this on MSG Networks because the carriage dispute ended! Hooray! Hofstra will provide a radio feed as well as live stats at the Pride Productions hub.
SENIOR DAY
File this under things we no longer take for granted in the pandemic era — and things that are different in the NIL/instant transfer era. The Dutchmen will honor their three seniors — graduate student Michael Graham as well as seniors TJ Gadsden and German Plotnikov — in a ceremony scheduled to begin at 1:40 PM. There is a chance Plotnikov, who is in his third season at Hofstra after opening his career with two seasons at North Platte Community College in Nebraska could return following the NCAA ruling granting an extra year of eligibility starting next season to student-athletes who have experience at a non-NCAA school and who would have used up their eligibility this season. And the NCAA is apparently considering granting all student-athletes five years of eligibility, which opens up the possibility Gadsden’s career is not nearing its completion. So maybe Tyler Thomas will be joined in the two Senior Days club next year.
This will mark the fourth straight Senior Day after the scheduled home finale was canceled due to, well, you know, in February 2021. The Dutchmen’s final home game of that season turned out to be a 79-74 win over Drexel on Feb. 7, 2021. The 2022 Senior Day was held prior to the penultimate home game of the season on Saturday, Feb. 26, two days before a makeup game against Charleston.
While Senior Day is a bittersweet afternoon for players and coaches, the game itself has traditionally been a happy occasion for the Flying Dutchmen. The Dutchmen are 25-5 in home finales in the DD Era (1994-present) with losses absorbed in 1994 (Army won 87-76), 2002 (Towson won 61-60), 2013 (Delaware won 57-56), 2017 (UNC Wilmington won 83-76) and 2019 (James Madison won 104-99 in overtime). However, there were no seniors on the roster in 2002, which means the Dutchmen didn’t TECHNICALLY lose on Senior Day that year.
Not surprisingly, teams with Speedy Claxton either playing on the court or strolling the sideline have fared well on Senior Day. Claxton’s teams are 11-2 on Senior Day — 4-0 when he was in uniform from 1997 through 2000 and 8-2 since he joined the coaching staff for the 2013-14 season, including 3-0 as a head coach.
SCOUTING NORTH CAROLINA A&T
The Aggies, under second-year head coach Monte Ross (hey that name sounds familiar!), are 7-23 overall and 3-14 in CAA play after falling to Northeastern, 69-55, on Thursday night. North Carolina A&T has won three of five since starting CAA play 0-12 and is 3-4 since leading scorers Landon Glasper and Ryan Forrest — who were averaging a combined 37.6 points per game — were indefinitely suspended along with reserve Julius Reese. Glasper has already hit the transfer portal.
The Dutchmen and Aggies had no common opponents in non-conference play. In CAA play, both teams lost their lone meetings with Drexel, Monmouth and Towson. The Dutchmen beat Not Twitter Guy, with whom the Aggies split, and UNC Wilmington, which won its lone game against North Carolina A&T. Hofstra swept Delaware, which won its lone meeting with the Aggies, and split with Northeastern, which beat North Carolina A&T. The Dutchmen were swept by Stony Brook (sigh) and Campbell, each of whom split with the Aggies. Hofstra also was swept by William & Mary, which won its lone meeting against North Carolina A&T, and lost to Hampton and Charleston, each of whom swept the Aggies.
The Dutchmen, who were picked to finish fourth in the CAA preseason poll, are ranked 226th at KenPom.com, which is their second-lowest ranking of the season but a five-spot increase from last Saturday. The Aggies, who were picked to finish 10th, are ranked 327th, 37 spots lower than their preseason ranking and 77 spots lower than their season-high the morning of Nov. 20 but an improvement of nine spots from their season-low the morning of Feb. 6.
According to KenPom.com, the Dutchmen rank 13th in the CAA in conference-only offensive efficiency (99.5 points per 100 possessions) and fourth in defensive efficiency (102.4 points per 100 possessions) while averaging 63.8 possessions per 40 minutes, the 11th-most in the league. The Aggies rank 14th and last in the CAA in offensive efficiency (98.4 points per 100 possessions) and are 12th in defensive efficiency (110.0 points per 100 possessions) while averaging 67.2 possessions per 40 minutes, the fourth-most in the league.
Not counting Glasper, the Aggies return seven players from last year’s team. True sophomore Jahnathan Lamothe, who spent last season at Maryland, is North Carolina A&T’s top active scorer at 13.2 points per game while ranking second with 7.4 rebounds per game and 2.7 assists per game. True sophomore Nikolaos Chitikoudis is averaging 11.3 points per game and a team-high 9.5 rebounds per game. True sophomore Camian Shell, a preseason all-CAA honorable mention selection, is averaging 7.5 points per game and leads the Aggies with 3.6 assists per game. Lamothe, Chitikoudis, Shell, Bryson Ogletree, Efstratios Kalliontzis and Jalal McKie are the only players to see the floor for North Carolina A&T in the last seven games.
KenPom.com predicts a 70-62 win for the Dutchmen. Per the wise guys in Vegas, for entertainment purposes only, the Dutchmen are 9 1/2-point favorites. Really. The Dutchmen are 12-16 against the spread this season.
ALL-TIME VS. NORTH CAROLINA A&T
Hofstra is 2-1 all-time against North Carolina A&T. The Dutchmen won the lone meeting between the schools last season on Feb. 10, when German Plotnikov scored a career-high 20 points and Tyler Thomas (19 points, 10 rebounds) posted a double-double in a wire-to-wire 81-49 win in Greensboro, N.C. The series began Nov, 14, 2018, when Justin Wright-Foreman scored 22 points to lead five players in double figures in a 92-72 win at the Arena.
THINGS YOU CAN SHOUT ON TWITTER (OR BLUESKY) IF CALLS GO DO NOT GO HOFSTRA’S WAY
Monte Ross has coached two teams here bias! (Ross can say that now about the home arena of every CAA school that was in the league when he directed Delaware from 2006-07 through 2015-16)
That bald guy is doing great at Georgia Tech bias! (Duncan Powell, the world’s oldest-looking early 20-something, is starting for Georgia Tech after a season apiece at North Carolina A&T and Sacramento State)
Ironmen bias! (Seriously, the Aggies have had just six players see the court in their last seven games)
I could have been a fan of Ricky Moore’s alma mater bias! (Moore forced the national championship-clinching turnover by Trajan Langdon in the 1999 NCAA title game as UConn won the first of its six national titles, but that would have been the easy path and who wants to take that?)
