Georgia (State) on my mind

Why do I get the idea that anyone who called Ty Cobb the "Georgia Peach" got the living hell beaten out of him?

Every single trend and every single evaluation of the statistics suggests tonight’s Flying Dutchmen-Georgia State game will go down to the final minute, if not the final possession. The Dutchmen have played seven CAA games and 14 games overall that have been decided by five points or less. Georgia State has played five CAA games and 10 overall—including its last three—that have been decided by five points or less.

The Dutchmen and Panthers are red-hot—Hofstra’s five-game win streak is the longest active run in the CAA while Georgia State’s three-game streak ties it for second with Old Dominion—who have played their way back from the abyss multiple times. The Dutchmen, of course, opened the CAA season 2-4 and were 6-6 after consecutive losses to VCU and Mason earlier this month. The Panthers, who welcomed four transfers prior to the season, are finally developing some chemistry after going 0-9 against Division I competition prior to the New Year and enduring in-conference losing streaks of four games and three games.

The Dutchmen have played 16 CAA games, nine of which have been within six points at the 7:30 mark of the second half. From the file of “not really relevant but interesting to me nonetheless” is this: In four of the last five years, the Dutchmen’s penultimate (man I love that word) regular season game has been decided by six points or less.

And I wrote two weeks ago that this game—the furthest road trip of the season, against a sub-.500 team and in the middle of the week to boot—scared the bejeezus out of me.

So why can’t I shake the feeling the Dutchmen are going to win big tonight? This is nothing more than a hunch. I’m not trying to end up as bulletin board fodder for fans or anybody else.

But to watch the Dutchmen the last three weeks is to see a team that’s bursting with positive momentum and clicking on all cylinders. They are the hottest team in the league (the Dutchmen and ODU are both 7-2 in their last nine games, but the Dutchmen beat ODU so they get the tiebreaker…my blog, my tiebreakers for standings that aren’t really standings).

There are sophomores emerging as studs and seniors making contributions many of us were unsure they could provide. Everyone’s chipping in, there’s a different difference-maker every day (seriously, if I didn’t see it myself, I never would have believed Life of Corny’s eight-minute burst to end the win over Fairfield) and Charles Jenkins no longer looks as if he’s bearing the weight of the Dutchmen on his shoulders, even when he does shoot 4-of-17 from the field.

There are skeptics in the crowd who are enjoying the ride but not quite ready to think big. That’s understandable, given not only the Dutchmen’s bipolar nature but also the unpredictability of the CAA. As Litos pointed out yesterday, finishing fourth may not be much of a reward at all and is a seed fraught with peril. Multiple very good teams are going to be trucking home on I-95 by late Saturday night. Why fully invest if we could be shaking our fists at the sky 10 days from now?

You know what the skeptics need to even begin entertaining the thought of dreaming big? A big win—the type that makes everyone sit up and go holy smokes, these guys are for real and really dangerous. That win happens tonight.

And if it doesn’t, and if Nathaniel Lester becomes the latest player to hit a game-winning shot in the final minute—or, gasp, the Panthers win—don’t blame me. The conference is bipolar. It was like that when I got here. Either way, enjoy and tune in the old school way—radio only for the last time this season. No telecast or webcast available tonight, but I’m sure Mike Francesa will find a way to watch it anyway.

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To try and figure out the various permutations and the other teams who can help out the Dutchmen over the final two games is an exercise for the sadistic…or the guys at WRHU (the link in the upper right is coming, gents, I promise). Great work here.

One more kick-in-the-teeth possibility for the Dutchmen: They could win out and still finish fifth if Drexel and ODU win out to finish 12-6 and Mason splits its final two games to finish 12-6. In that scenario, Mason would finish second (4-1 record against the other 12-6 teams), ODU third (2-2 against the 12-6ers), Drexel fourth (2-3 against the 12-6ers) and Hofstra fifth (1-3 against the 12-6ers).

I think that’s possible, anyway.

What you should root for, I think, is for Hofstra to win out (duh) and ODU to win out and Northeastern to beat Drexel tonight. That would give the Dutchmen the no. 3 seed by virtue of their 2-1 record against NU and ODU. Of course, the 3 vs. 6 game, almost surely against Drexel or James Madison, will be no walk in the park, but three sounds better than four and could come in handy if the Dutchmen need to hope for an NIT bid.

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Lastly, how’s this for clutch? The Dutchmen have hit 18 3-pointers in their last three games. Eight have given the Dutchmen the lead and two have tied the score. The Dutchmen have taken the lead for good on a 3-pointer in each of the last three games.

In addition, Zygis Sestakos’ first 3-pointer Saturday was the Dutchmen’s first basket and his second one ended a 9-0 run by Fairfield. Sestakos’ fourth 3-pointer ended Fairfield’s 10-2 run to open the second half and pulled the Dutchmen within 33-32 while Cornelius Vines’ second 3-pointer ended a 7-0 run by the Stags and pulled the Dutchmen within 51-48.

More fun with numbers: The Dutchmen hit four 3-pointers vs. Delaware, six 3-pointers vs. James Madison, eight 3-pointers vs. Fairfield. That’s one trend I’ll use as evidence of big things to come tonight for the Dutchmen.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com. And join the Defiantly Dutch group at Facebook today!

Hofstra 62, New Hampshire 57 (Or: Lucky number seven)

That's right. she's back. A very excited Monica Geller lets us know how many consecutive shots New Hampshire missed with a chance to tie or take the lead Saturday.

Maybe it’s just my unbridled optimism and outrageous blog bias, but I didn’t believe the Flying Dutchmen were particularly lucky in winning four of their first eight games by five points or less. Good teams find ways to win close games and have players who define the cliché by raising their game when it matters most, such as Charles Jenkins did by scoring six points in the overtime period to lift the Dutchmen to a three-point overtime win over Western Michigan, by scoring the Dutchmen’s final eight points in the one-point win over East Tennessee State or by scoring the Dutchmen’s final six points in the four-point win over Manhattan.

And good teams capitalize on any little mistake an opponent makes in the final minutes of a tight contest, a la what the Dutchmen did in beating Manhattan, or they jump out to a big enough lead to be able to hold on despite a late surge, a la how Hofstra held on to edge Stony Brook by five.

But there is no spin I can come up with for the Dutchmen’s 62-57 win over New Hampshire Saturday. They were flat-out lucky.

Tom Pecora, on the other hand, was not lucky and spent most of the game sick in the locker room. Hope Pecora is feeling better, but if it’s any consolation (and it probably isn't), he didn’t miss anything he hasn’t already seen, particularly over the last three weeks. The Dutchmen struggled to put away an opponent after they opened a huge early lead, endured ice-cold stretches from the field, continued to be haunted by the lack of a true point guard and, despite opening the season with the lengthiest depth chart in years, continued to look as top-heavy as any team in the Pecora era.

On Saturday, the Dutchmen were lucky their flaws didn’t result in a loss in a game against a perennial bottom-feeder in the America East. UNH has enjoyed only two winning seasons in the last 25 years, the last of which occurred when it finished second in the NAC behind Scott Drapeau during Hofstra’s first season in the league in 1994-95—how’s that for a double dose of old-school?

And the Wildcats are the anti-Dutchmen—they’ve lost three in a row by five or less and four overall during a 3-7 start—could not seize the game, no matter how often Hofstra tried giving it away. The Dutchmen were up 17-1 seven minutes into the game yet fell behind by six points in the second half against a team that played just two upperclassmen.

That youth was on display after Greg Washington’s jumper gave the Dutchmen a 58-57 lead with 2:31 left. The Wildcats had six shots—SIX SHOTS!!—to take the lead over the next 135 seconds yet missed every one. Lucky.

Then, after Cornelius Vines hit two free throws with 12 seconds left—lucky too or just the law of averages evening out?—UNH had one more shot to tie the game, but Alvin Abreu missed a 3-pointer with three seconds left and Washington hit two free throws (no longer seems like luck, he’s 12-of-17 from the line this year) to seal it.

Seven shots to tie or take the lead in the last 2:31, seven misses. Greg Kihn was singing about the Dutchmen before any of the current players were born!



Will "Jeopardy" eventually summarize the Dutchmen's season?

In addition, trying to milk the clock with a late lead didn’t work for the second straight game: Hofstra took just two shots, both of which it missed, in the 2:19 between Washington’s go-ahead basket and Vines’ free throws. Against Iona last Tuesday, the Dutchmen were 1-for-5 after taking a three-point lead with 3:08 to play.

On the bright side, the victory Saturday would not have been possible if Jenkins hadn’t continued to prove the cliché correct and if “Gee Dubs”—who made his first start of the season—continued his rapid improvement. Jenkins battled early foul trouble and struggled for the fourth straight game, but chipped in just in time: He had nine of his 12 points during a four-minute stretch in which the Dutchmen turned a 45-42 deficit into a 51-49 lead.

Jenkins didn’t score again, but Washington scored six of his team-high 13 points over the remaining 4:57 as Hofstra held on. To have two sophomores—especially with such different games—developing into clutch go-to players is quite an enviable situation for Pecora and the Dutchmen.

But two players aren’t going to be enough for the next two months and two weeks. Who will have to emerge if the Dutchmen are to have the type of March we thought was possible earlier this month? We’ll try to figure that out tomorrow.

Email Jerry at defiantlydutch@yahoo.com.