This season's been one giant penny stuck inside a door.
That wasn’t as bad as watching Stony Brook end the Flying Dutchmen’s season a year ago, but losing to the Seawolves at Winter Homecoming to fall under .500 for the season wasn’t fun either! Oh well the good news is the Dutchmen play William & Mary tonight and nothing bad EVER happens against the Tribe!
Bleeech. Anyway, as will hopefully remain the routine now that conference play has begun, I ran down the boilerplate material from Saturday’s loss in Wednesday’s Keep It Perky. Today will be about the individual news and notes from that loss as well as a preview of the Tribe. Try and enjoy!
BETTER NEVER THAN LATE
The Dutchmen made a bit of unwanted quirky history Saturday, when the loss to Stony Brook dropped them under .500 for the first time this season at 12-13. This is the latest in a season the Dutchmen have slipped under .500 for the first time, beating out…last year, when the Dutchmen fell under .500 for the only time at 8-9. Quirky! And something to aim for next year!
The Dutchmen, who peaked at five games over .500 at 8-3, were also the first Division I team this season to fall under .500 for the first time in the 25th game or later, though they’ve since been joined in that club by a trio of schools with whom they share some one degree of separation commonness. Rice, whom the Dutchmen beat in the Baha Mar Hoops tournament on Nov. 29, fell to 12-13 with a 67-61 loss to North Texas on Tuesday night. The Owls peaked at seven games over .500 at 11-4. Rutgers, whom the Dutchmen knocked off in an instant classic in the NIT in March 2023, dropped to 12-13 with an 84-73 loss to Iowa on Wednesday night. The Scarlet Knights opened 4-0 and 5-1. Later Wednesday, La Salle, where old friend Joe Mihalich is the special assistant to head coach Fran Dunphy, slipped to 12-13 following a 75-63 loss to Saint Joseph’s. The Explorers were 4-0 and 6-2 earlier this season.
Welcome to the club, guys. Hopefully none of us are here very long….though if last year is any indication, most of us will be here a while. There were 11 teams last season that slipped under .500 for the first time in their 25th game or later — including Arkansas, coached by Speedy Claxton’s former NBA coach Eric Musselman, and Miami (FL), coached by that big quitter C. Montgomery Burns. All but one of those teams finished the season under .500. The lone exception was UTEP, which recovered to make it to the Conference USA title game and finished 18-16. Here’s the full list, which includes how far above .500 each team was before it began its descent.
Arkansas: 12-13 after 9-4 start, finished 16-17
Ball State: 12-13 after an 8-2 start, finished 15-16
UTEP: 13-14 after a 5-0 start, finished 18-16
Tulane: 13-14 after 10-3 start, finished 14-17
Wyoming: 13-14 after 4-1, 6-3, 7-4 & 12-9 starts, finished 15-17
George Washington: 14-15 after 14-3 start, finished 15-17
Cal Baptist: 15-16 after 13-7 & 14-8 starts, finished 16-17
Davidson: 15-16 after 10-3 start, finished 15-17
Evansville: 15-16 after 10-2 start, finished 17-18
Kennesaw State: fell to & finished 15-16 after being 12-5 & 13-6
Miami (FL): 15-16 after 11-2 start, finished 15-17
WIN PROBABILITY, SCHWIN PROBABILITY
This is going to sound familiar. Stony Brook’s win probability, per KenPom.com, bottomed out at 4.3 percent when the Dutchmen took their biggest lead at 60-52 with 6:52 left. But that’s just the second least-likely loss of the season for the Dutchmen, who lost to Campbell, 69-67, in overtime on Jan. 25 after the Camels’ win probability bottomed out at 2.8 percent when the Dutchmen took their biggest lead at 34-16 with 1:50 left in the first half. For a brief period of time Saturday, these games each ranked among the top 100 least likely wins of the season at KenPom.com. So we’ve got that going for us, which is nice. Overall this season, the Dutchmen have lost 10 games in which their opponent’s win probability bottomed out at below 30 percent. Not great.
FRUSTRATING FIVE
This is also a telling stat for just how frustrating this season has become. The Dutchmen never trailed by more than five points Saturday, when they…lost by five points. Remarkably, it’s the third five-point defeat this season the Dutchmen never trailed by more than five points. The Dutchmen endured that fate back-to-back from Jan. 16-20, when they fell to Towson 65-60 before losing to Drexel, 60-55. Wow! Spanning two presidential administrations!
THE DEFENSE IS…BEGINNING TO REST?
The Dutchmen’s defense, so stout for most of the season, has begun to show cracks over the last three games. Stony Brook became the third straight opponent to reach or surpass 75 points Saturday when the Seawolves, as you know by now, scored 80 points in their 80-75 win. Campbell earned a 75-52 win on Feb. 1 before Northeastern recorded a 77-68 win last Thursday. The streak of consecutive games in which opponents have scored at least 75 points is the longest since a season-opening five-game stretch from Nov. 7-19, 2022, when the Dutchmen went 4-1. And that’s the difference between having Aaron Estrada and Tyler Thomas and not having them.
NO FIRST HALF FADE THIS TIME
The final few minutes of the second half Saturday didn’t go well at all on defense for the Dutchmen, but they finally posted a defensive stand to end the first half by outscoring Stony Brook 5-0 and holding them to 0-of-2 shooting with two turnovers during the final two minutes. The Dutchmen have now been outscored 43-32 in the final two minutes of the first half in 11 league games, during which their opponent has shot 13-of-30 from the field in the last two minutes and scored on their final possession six times. The Dutchmen have shot 13-of-34 from the field in the last two minutes of the first half and scored on their last possession four times. Alas, the Dutchmen did not score on their final possession of the first half Saturday and have not done so since Jan. 25, when Michael Graham’s dunk preceded a free throw by Campbell’s Cam Gregory.
SLIP SLIDIN’ AWAY
A remarkable streak ended with Saturday’s loss, which dropped the Dutchmen to no. 209 at KenPom.com entering tonight’s game. It’s the lowest the Dutchmen have been ranked entering a game since way back on Nov. 25, 2013, when they were ranked 214th prior to a 71-70 loss to South Florida. Just two other true mid-majors — programs outside the American, Atlantic 10 and Mountain West — have gone longer without falling to no, 209 or lower. Belmont has entered every game ranked higher than no. 209 since the start of the 2010-11 season, which is as far back as pregame rankings can be found at KenPom.com, while Louisiana Tech has been ranked higher than no. 209 for every game dating back to the start of the 2012-13 season.
The company gets even more exclusive when we open it up to the American, Atlantic 10 and Mountain West. Of the 11 programs from those schools to never fall lower than no. 209 since the start of the 2010-11 season, four have been to a Final Four — VCU, Wichita State, Gonzaga and San Diego State — while Dayton made the Elite Eight in 2014 and likely would have been a no. 1 seed if the 2020 NCAA Tournament was played. The other upper mid-majors (new term!) In this club are Memphis, St. Bonaventure, Davidson, Saint Mary’s, Boise State and Utah State. Pretty impressive, and a bummer to exit that club. Though I can always tweak the parameters to get the Dutchmen back in if necessary!
CRUZ-IN
OK, time for some individual news and notes. Cruz Davis continued his midseason resurgence Saturday afternoon, when he finished with 24 points, four assists, two steals and just one turnover in 40 minutes. Davis has scored in double figures in a season- and career-high seven straight games after scoring in double figures just twice in his previous six games from Dec. 29 through Jan. 16. Alas, the loss Saturday dropped the Dutchmen to 9-7 when Davis scores in double figures and 7-3 when he leads or shares the team lead in scoring.
JEAN FITS
Jean Aranguren extended his streak of double-digit scoring efforts to 15 straight games Saturday afternoon, when he finished with 17 points while tying a career-high with nine assists. He also had nine assists in a 90-76 win over Iona on Nov. 8. Aranguren has scored in double figures 22 times in 25 games overall after reaching double figures just nine times in 33 games last season with Iona.
GRAHAM CRACKIN’
Michael Graham bounced back from last Thursday’s rough game and injury scare by posting another double-double Saturday afternoon, when he finished with 13 points and 10 rebounds over 22 minutes. The double-double was the sixth of the season for Graham, who had just three double-doubles the previous two seasons at Loyola Marymount. Graham was 4-of-6 from the field and 5-of-6 from the free throw line, the latter of which was his busiest and most successful outing from the charity stripe since way back on Mar. 6, 2022, when he was 5-of-6 from the line for Not Twitter Guy in a 75-58 loss to UNC Wilmington in the CAA Tournament quarterfinals. He is shooting 64.6 percent (42-of-65) over the nine games, a span that includes his 3-of-12 performance against Northeastern last Thursday.
GERMAN FOR STARTERS
German Plotnikov, the lone returning player who made a start last season for the Dutchmen, returned to the starting lineup Saturday afternoon, when he finished with three points, two assists, two steals, one block and one rebound in 19 minutes. Plotnikov, who came off the bench in the previous two games after sitting out the 74-63 win over Not Twitter Guy on Jan. 30, has recorded five steals in his last two games and has multiple steals five times this season — all in his last 10 games dating back to Jan. 2. He has scored in 16 of the last 17 games in which he’s played after scoring just once in the first six games.
SUNDAY SUNDAY SUNDAY
Silas Sunday saw extensive action Saturday afternoon, when he had three points, seven rebounds and three blocks in 17 minutes. Sunday did most of his damage in the second half, when he had all three points and all three blocks to go along with five rebounds while playing more than 11 consecutive minutes. The three blocks tied his career-high, set four times previously, while the seven rebounds were the most for Sunday since he also had seven boards in the 66-63 win over UNC Wilmington on Jan. 11. Sunday played at least 17 minutes Saturday for just the third time in CAA play after recording at least 17 minutes in five of the first 13 games.
POTENT PARNELL
Eric Parnell got his most playing time since CAA play began Saturday afternoon, when he scored six points while going 2-of-5 from 3-point land over 12 minutes. Parnell, who may have seen extended time due to the absence of KiJan Robinson, began the Dutchmen’s 5-0 run to end the first half by hitting a 3-pointer to tie the score at 31-31 with 1:52 left. He drained another 3-pointer to extend the Dutchmen’s lead to 53-48 with 10:34 left. The six points were the most for Parnell since he scored a career-high 19 points in the 114-46 win over Division III St. Joseph’s (NY) on Dec. 6 while the 12 minutes were more than the 10-plus minutes he’d played in three CAA games entering Saturday.
TJ TO THE EXTREME
TJ Gadsden had another quiet game Saturday afternoon, when he had five points and five rebounds with one block and one steal before fouling out in 36 minutes. The 36 minutes were the most in CAA play for Gadsden and his most since he logged 39 minutes in the 75-71 overtime win over UMass on Nov. 16. Gadsden has scored seven points or fewer in each of his last seven games and has scored in double figures just twice this season after scoring at least 10 points in 11 of 25 games last season for Canisius.
FARMER AID
Khalil Farmer may have continued hitting the late-season wall Saturday afternoon, when scored three points on 1-of-5 shooting while adding an assist in nine minutes. The nine minutes were the fewest since Jan. 2 for Farmer, who returned to his reserve role Saturday after starting the previous three games. Farmer has just eight points and three rebounds over 75 minutes in his last four games after collecting 40 points and six rebounds in five games (one start) from Jan. 11 through Jan. 25. Overall, Farmer has scored in 17 of the last 20 games in which he’s played after he didn’t score in his first two games of the season.
DECADY’S DANCE
Joshua DeCady continued to see limited action Saturday afternoon, when he scored one point while pulling down one rebound in four minutes. He is the fifth Hofstra player this season to score exactly one point and the first since Khalil Farmer had one point in the 65-60 loss to Towson on Jan. 16. The point was the first for DeCady since his career-best 15-point outburst in the 74-63 win over Not Twitter Guy on Jan. 30, which was also the only time in the last 10 games in which he’s played more than eight minutes.
STRUGGLING SANDERS
Jaquan Sanders’ up-and-down season took another downward turn Saturday afternoon, when he was scoreless while going 0-for-2 from 3-point land in four minutes. Sanders has just 26 points on 9-of-47 shooting, including 7-of-39 from 3-point land, in the last 12 games in which he’s played dating back to Dec. 6 after opening the season by averaging 11.3 points and shooting 34 percent from the field, including 33 percent from 3-point land, over the Dutchmen’s first nine games.
WHERE HAVE YOU GONE, MR. ROBINSON?
It really works this time! KiJan Robinson drew his first DNP of the season Saturday afternoon, when he sat out for the first time since he didn’t play in the 63-59 loss to Stony Brook in the CAA Tournament semifinals last Mar. 11. Maybe not playing him is the hex? (He was scoreless over 10 minutes in the two regular season games against the Seawolves last year, I’m just looking for any sort of good luck spark) The DNP continued a quiet stretch for Robinson, who has just 13 points over 58 minutes in last six games he’s played, a span in which he was held scoreless twice and played a total of 30 minutes. He was held scoreless just twice in the Dutchmen’s first 18 games, a span in which he averaged 8.1 points and 21 minutes per game.
OVER THE AIR
Tonight’s game is slated to be carried live on FloHoops.com (subscription required, click here for options) Hofstra will provide a radio feed as well as live stats at the Pride Productions hub.
SCOUTING WILLIAM & MARY
The Tribe, under first-year head coach Brian Earl, is 14-11 overall and 8-4 in CAA play after falling to Delaware, 74-67, on Saturday afternoon. It was the second straight loss and the third defeat in the last four games for William & Mary, which was the last unbeaten CAA team at 5-0 but has dropped four of seven to fall into fifth place and out of a double-bye spot.
The Dutchmen and Tribe had one common opponent in non-conference play. The Dutchmen beat Norfolk State 80-67 on Dec. 9, just under a month after the Tribe earned an 84-73 victory over the Spartans on Nov. 12.
In CAA play, both teams have beaten Not Twitter Guy and lost to Drexel. The Dutchmen beat UNC Wilmington and Delaware, each of whom defeated the Tribe, and lost to Stony Brook and Charleston, each of whom fell to William & Mary. The Dutchmen were swept by Campbell, which won its lone meeting with the Tribe.
The Dutchmen, who were picked to finish fourth in the CAA preseason poll, are ranked 209th at KenPom.com. As noted earlier, that’s the lowest the Dutchmen hav been entering a game in more than 11 years. Wild. The Tribe, which was picked to finish seventh, is ranked 218th, six spots higher than their preseason ranking but 39 spots below their peak entering play Jan. 11.
According to KenPom.com, the Dutchmen rank 13th in the CAA in conference-only offensive efficiency (101.0 points per 100 possessions) and fifth in defensive efficiency (103.1 points per 100 possessions) while averaging 63.9 possessions per 40 minutes, the 12th-most in the league. The Dutchmen dropped two spots in the defensive efficiency rankings last Saturday and are down three spots since last Thursday, which doesn’t seem good. The Tribe rank ninth in the CAA in offensive efficiency (106.2 points per 100 possessions) and seventh in defensive efficiency (107.0 points per 100 possessions) while averaging 71.0 possessions per 40 minutes, the most in the league.
The Tribe return seven players from last year’s team. Senior Gabe Dorsey, who began his career with one season at Vanderbilt, leads William & Mary with 12.8 points per game. Senior Noah Collier, who opened his career with two seasons at Pittsburgh, ranks second on the team with 12.2 points per game and 5.0 rebounds per game but hasn’t played since suffering a non-contact injury against Charleston on Feb. 3. Junior Kyle Pulliam, a transfer from Division II St. Thomas Aquinas, is averaging 10.1 points per game, though he missed seven games from Dec. 18 through Jan. 11. Junior Chase Lowe, who has spent his entire career with the Tribe, is averaging 8.4 points per game and a team-high 5.3 rebounds per game, though he missed four games with a concussion. Senior Caleb Dorsey, who opened his career with two seasons at Penn State, is averaging 7.2 points per game, though he missed nine games from Nov. 12 through Dec. 4.
KenPom.com predicts a 73-71 loss for the Dutchmen. Sounds about right! Per the wise guys in Vegas, for entertainment purposes only, the Dutchmen are 1 1/2-point underdogs. The Dutchmen have failed to cover in each of their last three games and are 10-13 against the spread this season.
ALL-TIME VS. WILLIAM & MARY
Hofstra is 29-16 against William & Mary in a series that began when the Dutchmen joined the CAA prior to the 2001-02 season. The Tribe won the first meeting between the teams this season in the CAA opener Jan. 2, when it raced out to a 30-point first-half lead before cruising to 74-56 victory. That may hav been a sign of things to come! William & Mary is seeking its first season sweep of the Dutchmen since 2014-15, when the Dutchmen didn’t lead in either regular season win before Daniel Dixon hit the last-second dagger to end all last-second daggers to give the Tribe a 92-91 double-overtime win in the CAA Tournament semifinals. Still not over it!
THINGS YOU CAN SHOUT ON TWITTER (OR BLUESKY) IF CALLS GO DO NOT GO HOFSTRA’S WAY
Neither one of us had a former assistant coach in the Super Bowl bias! (The Commanders and Bills were each knocked off in the conference championship game, which cost us a chance at watching former Hofstra assistant coach Dan Quinn and former William & Mary assistant coach Sean McDermott potentially oppose one another in the big game)
We’ve known Bill Lawrence since he was the Scrubs guy bias! (Now the streamers give his shows the respect and support Scrubs never got from NBC or ABC)
Your law school is 191 years older than our law school bias! (Not only that, but William & Mary’s law school, which was founded in 1779, is the oldest law school in the nation, per Wiki, which is never wrong)
Not that Bill Murray bias! (This Bill Murray played football for William & Mary and is currently with the Bears)
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